Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Lincoln, IL

551 
WWUS53 KILX 081159
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
659 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

ILC183-081209-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150408T1215Z/
VERMILION IL-
659 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR VERMILION COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3989 8754 3988 8794 4049 8793 4049 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1159Z 260DEG 32KT 4028 8734

$$

SMITH

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
256 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

Latest surface analysis indicates the frontal boundary that was
holding stationary over south central Illinois has shifted further
north early this morning as a weak wave of low pressure was
approaching west central Illinois. Scattered convection has been
occurring north of the boundary over parts of east central Iowa
east into our far northern counties with some nickel hail reported
over the past hour around Lacon in Marshall county. We expect the
scattered convection to continue into the morning hours as the wave
rides east along the boundary. As the surface low shifts to our east
later this morning, there may actually be a southward push to the
front which is going to cause some significant problems with respect
to the afternoon temperatures, especially along and north of I-74.
The latest HRRR does indicate another weak wave forming to our west
along the boundary early this afternoon with another complex of
storms approaching west central IL. Not sure if this particular
complex of storms will ride along the boundary into central Illinois
or dive more southeast into the higher instability air mass south
of the front. POPs will increase again this afternoon in response to
this secondary wave approaching from the west. Severe potential
increases this afternoon thru this evening as the boundary gets
a push northward as the more significant shortwave pushes into the
Plains. With the warm front expected to edge across the area this
afternoon and evening, damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated
tornadoes will all be possible. The tornado threat looks tied more
into areas along and just north of the warm front later this
afternoon and evening. Coolest temps north of I-74 where more of an
easterly flow will prevail, while south of the boundary, a blend of
the MET/MAV guid seems reasonable at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

Severe weather threat through Thursday evening continues to dominate
the first part of the forecast. Current upper low moving into
northwest Nevada will open up but remain a fairly sharp wave as it
traverses the Plains on Thursday. This will help develop a surface
low over western Kansas this evening, which will surge northeast and
shove the frontal boundary back northward tonight. The trailing cold
front will sweep from west to east across the state Thursday evening
as a result.

Convection to our southwest expected to expand northeastward into
the mid-Mississippi Valley this evening. Latest SPC Day1 outlook
extended the slight risk across the entire CWA, with an enhanced
risk of severe storms from basically Springfield-Peoria westward.
This enhanced risk covers the entire area on Thursday, with
high-resolution models focusing on the mid-afternoon through early
evening time frame as the best potential in our area.

Short period of cooler and drier weather on tap for the first part
of the weekend, as high pressure drifts across the Midwest. However,
longer range models showing extended periods of rain chances early
next week. The GFS and ECMWF have a sizable range on the position
of a frontal boundary that will be setting up Sunday night and
Monday, both starting off roughly along I-70 but the GFS shows a
much stronger surge to the north by Tuesday. However, with both
favoring some sort of precip, have kept healthy rain chances in the
forecast for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

A stationary front extending across central IL, just north of
I-70, is forecast to drift slowly northward overnight, in response
to the approach of a weakening low pressure center across
Missouri. The surface low and associated 500mb shortwave will help
trigger showers and storms in central IL the rest of the night.

A complex of storms has already developed west of PIA in SE Iowa.
The track of those storms looks to be just NW of PIA airport.
However, the HRRR and NCEP 4km WRF show additional development is
expected to the SE of the current storms. The new storms should
affect PIA and BMI between 07z and 12z, with the southern extend
possibly affecting the other terminal sites during that time.

SPI/DEC/CMI sites have returned to MVFR cloud heights. PIA/BMI
have remained LIFR due to 200ft cigs. BMI with vis now at 1/2sm FG.
Clouds are forecast to remain status quo for much of the night,
with some improvement as storms/showers pass near the terminals.

The weakening low pressure is still progged to advance across
central IL through early morning, dissipating before it reaches
Indiana. That will keep storm chances going through around 12z.

Additional storms are forecast to arrive tomorrow evening, per the
4km WRF.

ESE winds of 10-15kt will continue at 8-12kt overnight, with wind
directions highly dependent on how far north the stationary front
drifts by morning. Winds tomorrow morning could become variable
under the front, and eventually prevail from the N for PIA and
southwest for BMI/SPI/DEC/CMI. The GFS and NAM have differing wind
solutions, but went closer to the NAM with this set of TAFs.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
605 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

ILZ027>031-037-091100-
KNOX-MARSHALL-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
605 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT
10 AM.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY...AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...
ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
EXITING THE AREA EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES
THROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS ON THURSDAY.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A DAILY THREAT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT. ACTIVATION ON THURSDAY IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 7 PM.

ILZ036-040>042-047>051-091100-
CASS-FULTON-LOGAN-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
605 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY...AND BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THESE STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE THIS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
EXITING THE AREA EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES
THROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS ON THURSDAY.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A DAILY THREAT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT. ACTIVATION ON THURSDAY IS ALSO
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM.

ILZ038-043>046-053-091100-
CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-MACON-MCLEAN-PIATT-VERMILION-
605 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE INTENSE LIGHTNING
AND LARGE HAIL. AREAS EAST OF I-57 ARE MOST AT RISK.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY...AND BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE AS WELL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A THREAT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THROUGH 8 AM...AND IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION ON THURSDAY IS
LIKELY BETWEEN 5 PM AND 11 PM.

ILZ052-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-091100-
CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
605 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH A GREATER
CHANCE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...A
TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.

MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN AREAS ALONG THE WABASH
RIVER...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A THREAT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. IT IS ALSO LIKELY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BETWEEN 5 PM AND 11 PM.

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
524 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 AM     HAIL             BLOOMINGTON             40.48N 88.97W
04/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL JUST SOUTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON. REPORT
            VIA TWITTER.

&&

ALW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
527 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NORMAL                  40.52N 89.00W
04/08/2015  M1.13 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   MESONET

            RECEIVED 1.13 INCHES OF RAIN TOTAL WITH THUNDERSTORM,
            ALONG WITH PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

ALW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
528 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 AM     HAIL             1 E CLINTON             40.15N 88.94W
04/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       DE WITT            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ALW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
538 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     HAIL             LANE                    40.13N 88.85W
04/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       DE WITT            IL   MESONET

            SWOP REPORT

&&

ALW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
609 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N MACKINAW            40.55N 89.36W
04/08/2015  M1.90 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL IN AN HOUR AND A HALF

&&

ALW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
611 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     HAIL             3 SW FISHER             40.29N 88.39W
04/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ALW