Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Lincoln, IL

925 
WWUS53 KILX 081107
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
607 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

ILC019-081130-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-150408T1130Z/
CHAMPAIGN IL-
607 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
CHAMPAIGN COUNTY UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

AT 603 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR URBANA...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIDNEY...ST. JOSEPH...HOMER AND OGDEN.

INTERSTATE 57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 224 AND 236.

INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 179 AND 182.

INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 185 AND 197.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 3995 8838 4013 8837 4013 8794 3994 8794
TIME...MOT...LOC 1107Z 264DEG 32KT 4011 8813

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

SMITH

764 
WWUS53 KILX 081129
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
629 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

ILC019-081138-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-150408T1130Z/
CHAMPAIGN IL-
629 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 630 AM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3995 8838 4013 8837 4013 8794 3994 8794
TIME...MOT...LOC 1128Z 180DEG 0KT 4011 8818

$$

SMITH

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
256 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

Latest surface analysis indicates the frontal boundary that was
holding stationary over south central Illinois has shifted further
north early this morning as a weak wave of low pressure was
approaching west central Illinois. Scattered convection has been
occurring north of the boundary over parts of east central Iowa
east into our far northern counties with some nickel hail reported
over the past hour around Lacon in Marshall county. We expect the
scattered convection to continue into the morning hours as the wave
rides east along the boundary. As the surface low shifts to our east
later this morning, there may actually be a southward push to the
front which is going to cause some significant problems with respect
to the afternoon temperatures, especially along and north of I-74.
The latest HRRR does indicate another weak wave forming to our west
along the boundary early this afternoon with another complex of
storms approaching west central IL. Not sure if this particular
complex of storms will ride along the boundary into central Illinois
or dive more southeast into the higher instability air mass south
of the front. POPs will increase again this afternoon in response to
this secondary wave approaching from the west. Severe potential
increases this afternoon thru this evening as the boundary gets
a push northward as the more significant shortwave pushes into the
Plains. With the warm front expected to edge across the area this
afternoon and evening, damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated
tornadoes will all be possible. The tornado threat looks tied more
into areas along and just north of the warm front later this
afternoon and evening. Coolest temps north of I-74 where more of an
easterly flow will prevail, while south of the boundary, a blend of
the MET/MAV guid seems reasonable at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

Severe weather threat through Thursday evening continues to dominate
the first part of the forecast. Current upper low moving into
northwest Nevada will open up but remain a fairly sharp wave as it
traverses the Plains on Thursday. This will help develop a surface
low over western Kansas this evening, which will surge northeast and
shove the frontal boundary back northward tonight. The trailing cold
front will sweep from west to east across the state Thursday evening
as a result.

Convection to our southwest expected to expand northeastward into
the mid-Mississippi Valley this evening. Latest SPC Day1 outlook
extended the slight risk across the entire CWA, with an enhanced
risk of severe storms from basically Springfield-Peoria westward.
This enhanced risk covers the entire area on Thursday, with
high-resolution models focusing on the mid-afternoon through early
evening time frame as the best potential in our area.

Short period of cooler and drier weather on tap for the first part
of the weekend, as high pressure drifts across the Midwest. However,
longer range models showing extended periods of rain chances early
next week. The GFS and ECMWF have a sizable range on the position
of a frontal boundary that will be setting up Sunday night and
Monday, both starting off roughly along I-70 but the GFS shows a
much stronger surge to the north by Tuesday. However, with both
favoring some sort of precip, have kept healthy rain chances in the
forecast for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

A stationary front extending across central IL, just north of
I-70, is forecast to drift slowly northward overnight, in response
to the approach of a weakening low pressure center across
Missouri. The surface low and associated 500mb shortwave will help
trigger showers and storms in central IL the rest of the night.

A complex of storms has already developed west of PIA in SE Iowa.
The track of those storms looks to be just NW of PIA airport.
However, the HRRR and NCEP 4km WRF show additional development is
expected to the SE of the current storms. The new storms should
affect PIA and BMI between 07z and 12z, with the southern extend
possibly affecting the other terminal sites during that time.

SPI/DEC/CMI sites have returned to MVFR cloud heights. PIA/BMI
have remained LIFR due to 200ft cigs. BMI with vis now at 1/2sm FG.
Clouds are forecast to remain status quo for much of the night,
with some improvement as storms/showers pass near the terminals.

The weakening low pressure is still progged to advance across
central IL through early morning, dissipating before it reaches
Indiana. That will keep storm chances going through around 12z.

Additional storms are forecast to arrive tomorrow evening, per the
4km WRF.

ESE winds of 10-15kt will continue at 8-12kt overnight, with wind
directions highly dependent on how far north the stationary front
drifts by morning. Winds tomorrow morning could become variable
under the front, and eventually prevail from the N for PIA and
southwest for BMI/SPI/DEC/CMI. The GFS and NAM have differing wind
solutions, but went closer to the NAM with this set of TAFs.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
316 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-081115-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
316 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 51 FROM BLOOMINGTON TO SHELBYVILLE. PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY WINDS.

CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-081115-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
316 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT FROM I-74 NORTH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 51...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
508 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 AM     HAIL             MOUNT ZION              39.78N 88.88W
04/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       MACON              IL   PUBLIC

&&

ALW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
517 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 AM     HAIL             HOPEDALE                40.42N 89.42W
04/08/2015  E0.75 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PUBLIC REPORT VIA EM

&&

ALW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
524 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 AM     HAIL             BLOOMINGTON             40.48N 88.97W
04/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL JUST SOUTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON. REPORT
            VIA TWITTER.

&&

ALW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
527 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NORMAL                  40.52N 89.00W
04/08/2015  M1.13 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   MESONET

            RECEIVED 1.13 INCHES OF RAIN TOTAL WITH THUNDERSTORM,
            ALONG WITH PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

ALW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
528 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 AM     HAIL             1 E CLINTON             40.15N 88.94W
04/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       DE WITT            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ALW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
538 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     HAIL             LANE                    40.13N 88.85W
04/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       DE WITT            IL   MESONET

            SWOP REPORT

&&

ALW