Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
514 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN NORTH
OF A FRONT THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS THAT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THE NIGHT.

TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CONVECTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FOLLOW LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. THE LATTER WILL BE MOSTLY A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE BEEN TREMENDOUS RAINFALL RATES IN CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO CONTINUE.
SO FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
CLOSES OFF. A DRY SLOT WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE LOW BUT SHOWERS
WILL WRAP AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT DRY AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
WORKING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA
FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST
OHIO. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT MAY BEGIN TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. THUS EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT KDAY/KILN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY
LIFTING UP AS FAR NORTH AS KCMH/KLCK.

MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS ...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FILL IN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND PIVOT UP INTO OUR AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TRENDING
MOE TO JUST SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW....WOULD EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES SATURDAY...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1016 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-064-065-074-271100-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
HOCKING-
1016 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY
OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY.

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ060>063-070>073-080-082-271100-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
FAYETTE OH-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HIGHLAND-PIKE-
1016 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF LARGE
HAIL OR A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-081-088-271100-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-ADAMS-SCIOTO-
1016 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING...SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND SOME STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
628 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE NEW VIENNA         39.35N 83.66W
06/26/2015                   CLINTON            OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES AND LIMBS DOWN ACROSS BERNARD ROAD.

&&

JGIBSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     FLOOD            FRANKLIN                39.55N 84.30W
06/26/2015                   WARREN             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CREEK OVERFLOWING BANKS AND FLOODING A PARK NEAR 6TH
            STREET IN FRANKLIN.

&&

ANOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
635 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WAVERLY                 39.13N 82.98W
06/26/2015                   PIKE               OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED IN THE COUNTY ESPECIALLY IN THE
            WAVERLY AND BEAVER AREAS.

&&

ANOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW VIENNA              39.32N 83.69W
06/26/2015                   CLINTON            OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO STURDY STRUCTURE WITH ENTIRE WALL
            RIPPED FROM STRUCTURE.

&&

JGIBSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BEAVER                  39.03N 82.83W
06/26/2015                   PIKE               OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

ANOVAK

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