Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
222 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT PCPN HAS PUSHED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH OUR
AREA CURRENTLY IN A LULL. BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTH HAS BECOME
QUITE DIFFUSE BUT IT SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY PUSHES EASTWARD AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY. HIRES
CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN OUR AREA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY PUSHES IN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE DEGREE OF STRENGTHENING THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DICTATE THE SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY/EVENING BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF THE LOW...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THIS COULD
BEGIN WITH MORE ISOLATED/DISCRETE CELLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORABLE WITH A
MORE ORGANIZED MCS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT GIVEN THE INCREASING HELICITIES AHEAD OF THE LOW/ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT...THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT. WITH PWATS INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FFA FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME DEEPENING/TIMING
ISSUES WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND HOW FAST IT
WILL EXIT OUR AREA. DEEPENING LOW WILL BE REFLECTED BY A CLOSING
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. CONVECTIVE PCPN
THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS AS SYNOPTIC SCALE DEFORMATION DEVELOPS TO THE
NW OF THE LOW TRACK. ON SATURDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE
FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT WILL BE
RATHER COOL ON SATURDAY FOR LATE JUNE GIVEN CLOUDS...PCPN AND
INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. PCPN IN THE EAST WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM WEST TO
EAST.

ON SUNDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION. UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
EAST TO THE UPPER 70S WEST.

NEXT ROUND OF S/WV ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.  A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM TIME
PERIOD EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW NORMAL.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST
OHIO. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT MAY BEGIN TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. THUS EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT KDAY/KILN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY
LIFTING UP AS FAR NORTH AS KCMH/KLCK.

MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS ...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FILL IN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND PIVOT UP INTO OUR AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TRENDING
MOE TO JUST SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW....WOULD EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES SATURDAY...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1016 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-064-065-074-271100-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
HOCKING-
1016 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY
OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY.

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ060>063-070>073-080-082-271100-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
FAYETTE OH-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HIGHLAND-PIKE-
1016 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF LARGE
HAIL OR A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-081-088-271100-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-ADAMS-SCIOTO-
1016 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING...SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND SOME STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
349 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             1 N HIGHLAND            39.36N 83.60W
06/26/2015  E0.25 INCH       HIGHLAND           OH   PUBLIC

            1/4 - 3/8 INCH HAIL REPORTED ON STATE ROUTE 72

&&

JGIBSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE LEESBURG          39.33N 83.52W
06/26/2015                   HIGHLAND           OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TRAILER BLOWN ONTO HOUSE. MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

&&

BC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW WILMINGTON         39.41N 83.87W
06/26/2015                   CLINTON            OH   PUBLIC

            7 INCH DIAMETER TREE FELL

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW WILMINGTON         39.41N 83.87W
06/26/2015                   CLINTON            OH   PUBLIC

            7 INCH TREE FELL

&&

JGIBSON