Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH LIFE THREATENING FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS PERSISTENT TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A
DRYING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY. RIVER FLOODING WILL WORSEN
IN THE UPCOMING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...A DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP AS ADDITIONAL
RAIN TODAY AND MONDAY OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS SC FALLS ON GROUND
AND SOILS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS. BECAUSE OF THE
TROPICAL CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS...RAIN IS LIKELY TO BECOME
OCCASIONALLY TORRENTIAL AT TIMES...WITH RAIN-RATES OF 2-3 INCHES
PER HOUR AS A CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NC TODAY COMPARED TO SC...BUT BY MONDAY THE HEAVY
RAIN AXIS TRAINING OFF THE OCEAN WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO NC.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS TODAY AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
COUPLED WITH SODDEN GROUNDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR TOPPLED
TREES...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO HOMES
AND VEHICLES. DUE TO THE MASSIVE WEIGHT OF LARGE TREES...THIS
COULD ALSO PRESENT A REAL THREAT TO HUMAN LIFE WHILE EVEN IN
PLACES OF RESIDENCE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR NE SC AND SE NC TODAY...AND COULD EXTEND INTO MONDAY.
ALSO...CREEKS AND STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL BE ON THE RAPID
RISE...POSSIBLY OVER-SPILLING THEIR BANKS...WORSENING AN ALREADY
TREACHEROUS SCENARIO. THOSE RESIDING IN AND NEAR FLOOD PRONE AREAS
SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER AN EVACUATION PLAN TO ANOTHER LOCATION
LESS SUBJECT TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS QPF AND LONGEVITY
OF HEAVY RAIN MAINLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MID LEVEL LOW GETS KICKED
OUT TO SEA TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THE GFS...I HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO
SHOW HIGHER VALUES SOUTH EARLY MONDAY AND INLAND LATER MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AM. I MADE SIMILAR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF AMOUNTS
WITH THE 1200-1800 UTC PERIOD MONDAY THE FINAL BRUNT OF HEAVY
RAIN. OF COURSE BY THIS POINT ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE
TROUBLESOME. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD BIT OF
SUNSHINE WHICH WILL CERTAINLY BE A WELCOME SITE. NO CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH ARE COOL WITH LIMITED DIURNAL RANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN OMEGA PATTERN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONUS AS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OUT
WEST WITH A MORE OPEN WAVE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE IN THE OMEGA PATTERN. THIS MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME HINT AT A MOSTLY DRY
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT IT
APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TREMENDOUS CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH RAINFALL
RATES AVERAGING THREE INCHES PER HOUR. THIS ENTIRE BAND WILL WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ABOUT 5 MPH THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
BY THIS EVENING. TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD ROADS IMPASSABLE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...THREATENING MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND
MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT. SEAS OF 7-12 FT AND SHARPLY
LIMITED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. GALES POSTED
FOR NC AND ADVISORIES FOR SC. DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
ACROSS INLETS AND ENTRANCES AS INCOMING SWELL ENERGY INTERACTS
WITH OUTGOING TIDES. HIGH WATERS RUN-UP AND SHOALING WAVE ENERGY
WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS BREAKERS WHERE NONE NORMALLY WOULD EXIST.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...RUGGED CONTITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS
INITIALLY AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...WINDS WILL STILL BE 15-20 KNOTS TUESDAY. SEAS
WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH 4-8 FEET COMMON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS LEADS TO A NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH VARIOUS SWELL COMPONENTS FROM TROPICAL
ACTIVITY AND THE DEPARTING BAROCLINIC LOW. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY DROPPING BELOW
CRITERIA ALL WATERS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS/WAVES WILL LEAD TO
COASTAL FLOODING ON ALL AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH
TIDE. HIGH WATER RUN-UP...AND EVEN OVERWASH OF DUNE WEAKNESSES IS
EXPECTED. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL BEACHES
AND ALSO FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER...AS WATER RUN-OFF FROM
PREVIOUS AND TODAYS RAIN ELEVATED WATER LEVELS. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COINCIDING WITH
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SCZ054-056.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ106-108-110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MJC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
933 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

NCZ087-096-099-105-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055-051345-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-
INLAND GEORGETOWN-
933 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-051345-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
933 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-051345-
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
933 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ107-051345-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-
933 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ254-256-051345-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
933 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
822 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GEORGETOWN              33.36N  79.30W
10/04/2015                   GEORGETOWN         SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            IN GEORGETOWN COUNTY A NURSING HOME NEEDS TO BE
            EVACUATED. HIGH WATER RESCUES ONGOING AND VEHICLES
            STRANDED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1500375

43

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
845 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GEORGETOWN              33.36N  79.30W
10/04/2015                   GEORGETOWN         SC   MEDIA

            WATER RESCUES ON CHURCH STREET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1500376

43

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
857 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GEORGETOWN              33.36N  79.30W
10/04/2015                   GEORGETOWN         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER ON NORTHBOUND LANE OF HWY 17 IS 6 FT DEEP BETWEEN
            GEORGETOWN AND CHARLESTON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1500377

MBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
906 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GEORGETOWN              33.36N  79.30W
10/04/2015                   GEORGETOWN         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO TO FOUR FEET OF WATER AT THE INTERSECTION OF PRINCE
            STREET AND DOZIER STREET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1500378

43

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
928 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GEORGETOWN              33.36N  79.30W
10/04/2015                   GEORGETOWN         SC   PUBLIC

            WATER ENTERING HOMES ON SOUTH KAMINSKI ST

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1500379

MBB

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