Alert archive / South Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Wilmington, NC

October 4, 2015Georgetown County, Williamsburg County, South Carolina

NWS Wilmington, NC issued this flash flood warning at Oct 4, 2015, 2:12 AM EDT for Georgetown County, Williamsburg County, South Carolina. It was in force for 16 hr. 13 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Oct 4, 2015, 2:12 AM EDT (06:12 UTC)
Expired
Oct 4, 2015, 6:15 PM EDT
In force
16 hr
Issued by
NWS Wilmington, NC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Georgetown County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC

The radar

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Oct 4, 2:55 AM EDTFLASH FLOODSampit, SCSAMPIT CREEK OVERFLOWING
Oct 4, 5:43 AM EDTFLASH FLOODGeorgetown, SCROAD CLOSURES PLANTERSVILLE AND CALVIN HARDEE... FREDRICK LANE... ST DELIGHTS RD... AND THE ENTIRE MAIN STREET IN ANDREWS.
Oct 4, 5:50 AM EDTFLASH FLOODKingstree, SC911 REPORTS NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY IMPASSABLE.
Oct 4, 6:56 AM EDTFLASH FLOODGeorgetown, SCFLOODING ON CHURCH STREET.
Oct 4, 6:58 AM EDTFLASH FLOODGeorgetown, SCFLOODING ON ORANGE... WOOD... AND KING STREETS.
Oct 4, 7:17 AM EDTFLASH FLOODGeorgetown, SCHWY 17... 17A... 521... AND 701 ARE CLOSED.
Oct 4, 7:34 AM EDTFLASH FLOODGeorgetown, SCWATER IN GEORGETOWN UP TO 5 FEET DEEP IN SPOTS. GETTING INTO SOME HOMES AND BUSINESSES.
Oct 4, 8:00 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 7.431 Wnw Pawley'S Island, SC
Oct 4, 8:19 AM EDTFLASH FLOODGeorgetown, SCIN GEORGETOWN COUNTY A NURSING HOME NEEDS TO BE EVACUATED. HIGH WATER RESCUES ONGOING AND VEHICLES STRANDED.
Oct 4, 8:42 AM EDTFLASH FLOODGeorgetown, SCWATER RESCUES ON CHURCH STREET.
Oct 4, 8:55 AM EDTFLASH FLOODGeorgetown, SCWATER ON NORTHBOUND LANE OF HWY 17 IS 6 FT DEEP BETWEEN GEORGETOWN AND CHARLESTON.
Oct 4, 9:04 AM EDTFLASH FLOODGeorgetown, SCTWO TO FOUR FEET OF WATER AT THE INTERSECTION OF PRINCE STREET AND DOZIER STREET.
Oct 4, 9:26 AM EDTFLASH FLOODGeorgetown, SCWATER ENTERING HOMES ON SOUTH KAMINSKI ST

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 12 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 43 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 280 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2015-10-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 525 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2015-10-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 58 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
525 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
827 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
58 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
88 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

485 
WGUS52 KILM 040612
FFWILM
SCC043-089-040915-
/O.NEW.KILM.FF.W.0003.151004T0612Z-151004T0915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
212 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
  GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 515 AM EDT
    
* AT 210 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH 
  EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR ESTIMATED 
  THAT THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
  RAINFALL RATES WILL ONLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEADING 
  TO EXTENSIVE FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  GEORGETOWN...DEBORDIEU COLONY...KINGSTREE...PAWLEYS ISLAND...WINYAH
  BAY ENTRANCE...YAWKEY SOUTH ISLAND...MURRELLS INLET...ANDREWS...
  JACKSON...JOHNSONVILLE...HEMINGWAY...WARSAW...NORTH SANTEE...
  GOURDIN...HEBRON...EARLE...TRIO...HENRY...SALTERS AND LITCHFIELD
  BEACH.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON
AT 800 - 697 - 3901 WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 7937 3325 7948 3325 7953 3333 7976
      3338 7979 3350 7996 3350 8010 3388 7987
      3388 7984 3384 7980 3381 7935 3371 7927
      3368 7916 3357 7910 3357 7900 3340 7914
      3325 7918 3320 7917 3312 7925

$$

SHK
11 follow-up statements
211 
WGUS72 KILM 040839
FFSILM

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
439 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

SCC043-089-040915-
/O.CON.KILM.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151004T0915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILLIAMSBURG SC-GEORGETOWN SC-
439 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM EDT FOR
WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...

AT 438 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS 
MOST OF GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. UP TO FIVE INCHES OF 
RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS ACCORDING TO DOPPLER 
WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... 
GEORGETOWN...KINGSTREE...ANDREWS... HEMINGWAY...WARSAW...NORTH 
SANTEE...GOURDIN...HEBRON...EARLE...TRIO...HENRY...AND SALTERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 7937 3325 7948 3325 7953 3333 7976
      3338 7979 3350 7996 3350 8010 3388 7987
      3388 7984 3384 7980 3381 7935 3371 7927
      3368 7916 3357 7910 3357 7900 3340 7914
      3325 7918 3320 7917 3312 7925

$$

TRA
174 
WGUS52 KILM 040909
FFWILM
SCC043-089-041415-
/O.EXT.KILM.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151004T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
509 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
  GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1015 AM EDT

* AT 508 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING 
  ACROSS GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. RAINFALL RATES OVER 
  THREE INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FLASH 
  FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... 
  GEORGETOWN...LAMBERT...SAMPIT...ANDREWS...LANE...GOURDIN...TRIO... 
  GREELEYVILLE...SALTERS...KINGSTREE...OATLAND...MORRISVILLE...AND 
  CADES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SIX TO TEN INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA...LEADING TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. MANY 
HIGHWAYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS ARE LIKELY FILLED WITH DANGEROUS DEPTHS 
OF WATER...AND IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE THROUGH THE MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON
AT 800 - 697 - 3901 WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 7937 3325 7948 3325 7953 3333 7976
      3338 7979 3350 7996 3350 8010 3388 7987
      3388 7984 3384 7980 3381 7935 3371 7927
      3368 7916 3357 7910 3357 7900 3340 7914
      3325 7918 3320 7917 3312 7925

$$

TRA
778 
WGUS72 KILM 041018
FFSILM

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
618 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

SCC043-089-041415-
/O.CON.KILM.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151004T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILLIAMSBURG SC-GEORGETOWN SC-
618 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...

AT 613 AM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS 
VIRTUALLY ALL OF WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. IN GEORGETOWN COUNTY MAIN 
STREET IN ANDREWS WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF 
RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR 
ESTIMATES. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR 
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD PLANTERSVILLE... 
RHEMS...HEMINGWAY...INDIANTOWN...CADES...AND NIXONVILLE. THIS WILL 
CAUSE RENEWED FLASH FLOODING IN PLACES WHERE WATER MAY HAVE RECEDED 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SIX TO TEN INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON
AT 800 - 697 - 3901...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 7937 3325 7948 3325 7953 3333 7976
      3338 7979 3350 7996 3350 8010 3388 7987
      3388 7984 3384 7980 3381 7935 3371 7927
      3368 7916 3357 7910 3357 7900 3340 7914
      3325 7918 3320 7917 3312 7925

$$

TRA
851 
WGUS72 KILM 041108
FFSILM

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
708 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

SCC043-089-041415-
/O.CON.KILM.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151004T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILLIAMSBURG SC-GEORGETOWN SC-
708 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...

AT 704 AM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND MEDIA CONTINUED TO REPORT 
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. DEEP 
WATER IS BEING REPORTED ON CHURCH STREET IN GEORGETOWN...WITH 
FLOODING ALSO OCCURRING ON ORANGE...WOOD...KING STREETS. MAIN STREET 
IN ANDREWS WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. 

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF 
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. UP TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE 
PAST THREE HOURS ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES. ADDITIONAL 
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVEN TO TEN INCHES ARE POSSIBLE 
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HISTORIC FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON
AT 800 - 697 - 3901...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 7937 3325 7948 3325 7953 3333 7976
      3338 7979 3350 7996 3350 8010 3388 7987
      3388 7984 3384 7980 3381 7935 3371 7927
      3368 7916 3357 7910 3357 7900 3340 7914
      3325 7918 3320 7917 3312 7925

$$

TRA
362 
WGUS72 KILM 041210
FFSILM

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
810 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

SCC043-089-041415-
/O.CON.KILM.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151004T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILLIAMSBURG SC-GEORGETOWN SC-
810 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...

AT 808 AM EDT...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING 
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. 

UP TO FIVE FEET OF WATER IS THREATENING HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN 
GEORGETOWN. DEEP WATER IS BEING REPORTED ON CHURCH STREET IN 
GEORGETOWN...WITH FLOODING ALSO OCCURRING ON ORANGE...WOOD...KING 
STREETS. HIGHWAYS 17...17A...521...AND 701 ARE CLOSED. MAIN STREET 
IN ANDREWS WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. 

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF 
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. UP TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE 
PAST THREE HOURS ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES. ADDITIONAL 
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVEN TO TEN INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON
AT 800 - 697 - 3901...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 7937 3325 7948 3325 7953 3333 7976
      3338 7979 3350 7996 3350 8010 3388 7987
      3388 7984 3384 7980 3381 7935 3371 7927
      3368 7916 3357 7910 3357 7900 3340 7914
      3325 7918 3320 7917 3312 7925

$$

TRA
215 
WGUS72 KILM 041312
FFSILM

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
912 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

SCC043-089-041415-
/O.CON.KILM.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151004T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILLIAMSBURG SC-GEORGETOWN SC-
912 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...

AT 908 AM EDT...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING 
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. 

UP TO FIVE FEET OF WATER IS THREATENING HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN 
GEORGETOWN. WATER UP TO FOUR FEET DEEP WAS REPORTED FROM THE 
INTERSECTION OF PRINCE STREET AND DOZIER STREET. HIGHWAYS 
17A...521...AND 701 ARE CLOSED...AND HIGHWAY 17 IS CLOSED DUE TO 
UPWARD OF SIX FEET OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAY SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN. MAIN 
STREET IN ANDREWS WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. 

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF 
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. UP TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE 
PAST THREE HOURS ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES. ADDITIONAL 
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON
AT 800 - 697 - 3901...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 7937 3325 7948 3325 7953 3333 7976
      3338 7979 3350 7996 3350 8010 3388 7987
      3388 7984 3384 7980 3381 7935 3371 7927
      3368 7916 3357 7910 3357 7900 3340 7914
      3325 7918 3320 7917 3312 7925

$$

TRA
914 
WGUS52 KILM 041402
FFWILM
SCC043-089-041915-
/O.EXT.KILM.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151004T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1002 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
  GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 1001 AM EDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND MEDIA REPORTED SEVERE FLASH   
  FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES.   
  WATER DEPTH OF FOUR TO SIX FEET WAS REPORTED ON STREETS AND   
  HIGHWAYS FROM MULTIPLE LOCATIONS...INCLUDING HIGHWAY 17 SOUTH OF   
  GEORGETOWN...DUKE STREET AND LYNCH STREET...AND PRINCE STREET AND  
  DOZIER STREET IN GEORGETOWN. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA...BRINGING STORM TOTALS AMOUNTS TO 20 INCHES OR MORE. 

HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 130 PM. THIS WILL IMPEDE RUNOFF NEAR 
WINYAH BAY...TIDAL CREEKS...AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. IN THESE 
AREAS FLOOD WATERS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RECEDE DUE TO THE RISING TIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. 

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON
AT 800 - 697 - 3901 WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 7937 3325 7948 3325 7953 3333 7976
      3338 7979 3350 7996 3350 8010 3388 7987
      3388 7984 3384 7980 3381 7935 3371 7927
      3368 7916 3357 7910 3357 7900 3340 7914
      3325 7918 3320 7917 3312 7925

$$

TRA
658 
WGUS72 KILM 041433
FFSILM

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1033 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

SCC043-089-041915-
/O.CON.KILM.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151004T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILLIAMSBURG SC-GEORGETOWN SC-
1033 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...

AT 1030 AM EDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND MEDIA REPORTED SEVERE FLASH     
FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES.
     
WATER DEPTH OF FOUR TO SIX FEET WAS REPORTED HIGHWAY 17 SOUTH OF     
GEORGETOWN. DUKE STREET AND LYNCH STREET...AND PRINCE STREET AND 
DOZIER STREET IN GEORGETOWN WERE ALSO FLOODED. IN WILLIAMSBURG 
COUNTY THE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REPORTS HIGHWAY 52 AND 
WEST CHURCH STREET WERE CLOSED IN KINGSTREE DUE TO FLOODING. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA...BRINGING STORM TOTALS AMOUNTS TO 20 INCHES OR MORE. 

HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 130 PM. THIS WILL IMPEDE RUNOFF NEAR 
WINYAH BAY...TIDAL CREEKS...AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. IN THESE 
AREAS FLOOD WATERS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RECEDE DUE TO THE RISING TIDE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. 

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST 
FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON
AT 800 - 697 - 3901...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 7937 3325 7948 3325 7953 3333 7976
      3338 7979 3350 7996 3350 8010 3388 7987
      3388 7984 3384 7980 3381 7935 3371 7927
      3368 7916 3357 7910 3357 7900 3340 7914
      3325 7918 3320 7917 3312 7925

$$

TRA
875 
WGUS72 KILM 041551
FFSILM

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1151 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

SCC043-089-041915-
/O.CON.KILM.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151004T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILLIAMSBURG SC-GEORGETOWN SC-
1151 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...

AT 1144 AM EDT...FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF 
GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL RATES 
HAVE DIMINISHED FLOOD WATERS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE AND 
CONTINUE TO POSE A SERIOUS DANGER TO TRAVELERS.

WATER UP TO FOUR FEET DEEP WAS REPORTED FROM THE INTERSECTION OF 
PRINCE STREET AND DOZIER STREET IN GEORGETOWN. HIGHWAYS 
17A...521...AND 701 ARE CLOSED. HIGHWAY 17 IS CLOSED DUE TO UPWARD 
OF SIX FEET OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAY SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN. MAIN STREET 
IN ANDREWS WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. IN WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY THE 
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REPORTS HIGHWAY 52 AND WEST CHURCH 
STREET WERE CLOSED IN KINGSTREE DUE TO FLOODING. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN 
ADDITION TO THE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER 
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 130 PM. THIS WILL IMPEDE RUNOFF NEAR 
WINYAH BAY...TIDAL CREEKS...AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. IN THESE 
AREAS FLOOD WATERS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RECEDE DUE TO THE RISING TIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. 

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON
AT 800 - 697 - 3901...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 7937 3325 7948 3325 7953 3333 7976
      3338 7979 3350 7996 3350 8010 3388 7987
      3388 7984 3384 7980 3381 7935 3371 7927
      3368 7916 3357 7910 3357 7900 3340 7914
      3325 7918 3320 7917 3312 7925

$$

TRA
565 
WGUS52 KILM 041727
FFWILM
SCC043-089-042215-
/O.EXT.KILM.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151004T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
127 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
  GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 118 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING 
  ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS 
  DESPITE THE RECENT DECREASING TREND SEEN IN RAINFALL RATES. 
  HISTORIC FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AND 
  CONDITIONS REMAIN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IN SOME AREAS. 

THE CURRENT HIGH TIDE WILL IMPEDE RUNOFF NEAR THE BEACHES...TIDAL 
CREEKS...AND THE WATERWAY. EXTREMELY DEEP...POSSIBLY LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING MAY RESULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. 

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON
AT 800 - 697 - 3901 WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 7937 3325 7948 3325 7953 3333 7976
      3338 7979 3350 7996 3350 8010 3388 7987
      3388 7984 3384 7980 3381 7935 3371 7927
      3368 7916 3357 7910 3357 7900 3340 7914
      3325 7918 3320 7917 3312 7925

$$

III
679 
WGUS72 KILM 042035
FFSILM

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
435 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

SCC043-089-042215-
/O.CON.KILM.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-151004T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILLIAMSBURG SC-GEORGETOWN SC-
435 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...

AT 429 PM EDT...SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS 
MUCH OF GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. ROADS IN SOME AREAS 
ARE UNDER AS MUCH AS 5 FEET OF WATER. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS 
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS THE SITUATION REMAINS 
LIFE THREATENING IN MANY AREAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN 
THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. 

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON
AT 800 - 697 - 3901...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 7937 3325 7948 3325 7953 3333 7976
      3338 7979 3350 7996 3350 8010 3388 7987
      3388 7984 3384 7980 3381 7935 3371 7927
      3368 7916 3357 7910 3357 7900 3340 7914
      3325 7918 3320 7917 3312 7925

$$

III

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Oct 4, 1:22 AM EDT, 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 4, 1:22 AM EDT, 50 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
122 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIFE THREATENING FLOODING MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
PERSISTENT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FLUNG INTO THE CAROLINAS BY A
POWERFUL UPPER LOW. A DRYING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY.
RIVER FLOODING WILL WORSEN IN THE UPCOMING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD LIKE TO
EMPHASIZE THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE UPCOMING FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IN
SOME CASES...IT MAY BE UNPRECEDENTED IN THIS AREA SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN. THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED OR IN MANY AREAS FLOODED
FROM WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OVER A FOOT IN A FEW SPOTS...IN THE LAST 24 TO 36
HOURS. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF A FEW SINKHOLES ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN MAY
CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ON A LARGE SCALE.
ROADS...BRIDGES AND STRUCTURES WILL ALL BE VULNERABLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. INFRASTRUCTURE THAT NORMALLY
CONTROLS THE FLOW OF WATER SUCH AS DAMS...LEVEES AND CULVERTS MAY
FAIL DUE TO THE HIGH AND STRONG FORCES OF RISING WATER.

BE SURE ALL STORM DRAINS ARE FREE OF DEBRIS...THIS MAY HELP TO
DIMINISH THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY FLOODS IN YOUR COMMUNITY.  WE ARE
EXPECTING MANY ROADS WILL BECOME UNSAFE FOR TRAVEL. IN
ADDITION...OBEY ALL ROAD CLOSURE AND DETOUR SIGNS...THEY HAVE
BEEN POSTED FOR YOUR SAFETY. DO NOT CROSS ANY ROADWAY THAT IS
COVERED BY FLOWING WATER...IT MAY BE UNSAFE FOR TRAVEL.IF YOU DO
NOT NEED TO TRAVEL...STAY OFF THE ROADS. IF YOU LIVE NEAR STREAMS
OR RETENTION PONDS...YOU MAY WANT TO CONSIDER A SAFER PLACE TO
RETREAT SHOULD YOU NEED TO EVACUATE DUE TO RISING WATER. REMEMBER
NIGHTTIME FLOODING IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS SINCE YOU WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SEE THE RAPIDITY OF THE WATER RISE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WAS HELPING TO
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER N. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY BE
EXTENDED INTO MONDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH
AND THIS COUPLED WITH SATURATED TO FLOODED GROUND WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN SOME TREES AND POWER LINES. THE RISK WILL
INCREASE AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE
SPOTTY...BUT STILL HEAVY IN PLACES. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN...COINCIDING WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...HAS SHIFTED JUST O
THE S AND W OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVE. THIS MODEL IS CONFIRMING OUR PREVIOUS
THINKING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN BEGINNING TO MAKE A SHIFT BACK
TO THE N OVERNIGHT. WILL SHOW THIS TREND IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND THE HIGHEST QPF RETURNING TO THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HISTORIC AND LIFE THREATENING FLOODING
EXPECTED.

DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL CREATING A VERY FOCUSED AND INTENSE
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW THE
EXTREME RAINS ARE SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. EVEN IN ITS
FORMATIVE STAGES LAST EVENING THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER LEAD TO SOME
TERRIFYING RAINFALL RATES AND SERIOUS FLOODING MOST NOTABLY IN
LITTLE RIVER/NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AREA AS WELL AS PARTS OF DARLINGTON
COUNTY. REFER TO PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT/PNSILM FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS LOCAL STORM REPORTS/LSRILM FOR FLOODING INFO.
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THIS CHANNEL THE LOCAL RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
IMPRESSIVE.  DURING THE HOUR OF 17Z KILM REPORTED 0.31" OF RAIN IN
16 MINUTES. SUCH RAINFALL RATES ARE OFTEN VASTLY UNDERDONE IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. AND SPEAKING OF MODEL UNCERTAINTIES GUIDANCE ALSO OFTEN
STRUGGLES WITH HANDLING OF SYSTEMS THAT ARE SO DEEPLY CUT OFF FROM
STEERING FLOW. THAT SAID THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
OF THE HEAVIEST QPF BUT THIS WILL REALLY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SLIGHT
REDUCTION OVER FAR NW ZONES (THOUGH THE WRF BEGS TO DIFFER). IT IS
IN THESE ZONES WHERE THE LOWER PORTION OF "ONLY" 3-5 INCHES MAY
FALL. HOWEVER THE VERY NARROW AND FOCUSED NATURE OF THE RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO A STRONG GRADIENT IN QPF AS ONE HEADS INLAND.

AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD THIS LOW LEVEL FIRE HOSE OF
MOISTURE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE LOW...MOVING NORTHWARD AND ALSO
TAKING ON AN EVENTUAL NE TO SW ORIENTATION...ALL WHILE MAINTAINING A
CONNECTION WITH JOAQUIN. IN ADDITION TO THE SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE OVERALL SENSE OF TIMING, WHICH IS
USUALLY A GOOD CALL WITH CUTOFF LOWS. IN FACT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE END OF THE EVENT, WHICH WILL BE IN THE CAPE
FEAR/WILMINGTON AREAS LAST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

GENERAL FORECAST QPF CALLS FOR 3-5" ACROSS MOST OF NW AND NORTHERN
SC COUNTIES BUT 5-7" CAPE FEAR COAST DUE LONG PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE ADDITIONAL 5-7" AND LIKELY 7-10" SRN GTOWN AND
WILLIAMSBURG LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS CAN EASILY BEEN A MONTH'S WORTH
MOST TIMES OF THE YEAR IN AND OF THEMSELVES BUT FOLLOWING THE MAJOR
FLOODING ISSUES FROM YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL THE 3 DAY TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
SCENARIO. THIS WILL HOLD MOST TRUE WHERE MESOSCALE PROCESSES (WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED THIS FAR OUT) LEAD TO THE LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER
RAIN TOTALS AS OCCURRED IN PLACES LIKE LITTLE RIVER LAST EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE
OVERALL GREATLY IMPROVED AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE LONG TERM. A DEEP DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE UPPER
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR WET WEATHER EJECTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODERATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.

EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KTS OR HIGHER...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...THUS WARRANTING A WIND ADVISORY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE
AN PUSH INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
MIXTURE OF RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT...INCLUDING VFR...MVFR...AND IFR. AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASE AND THE AXIS OF RAINFALL PUSHES EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE A DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS
TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/TEMPO IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS...PATCHY FOG...AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...SHOWERS WILL SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH DETERIORATED
CONDITIONS CONTINUING...DUE MAINLY TO LOW CIGS AND ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 AM SUNDAY...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS WHILE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WE HAVE
INCREASED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO 25 TO 30 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE EASTERLY. A STRONG AND PERSISTENT 9 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL IN COMBINATION WITH THE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
7 TO 11 FT RANGE AND AS HIGH AS 12 OR 13 FT NEAR FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A STRONG GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON
SUNDAY BETWEEN A HUGE HIGH NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND STATES AND THE
WELL OFFSHORE JOAQUIN AS WELL AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ONLY VERY
SLOWLY DEVELOPING JUST OFF SC/GA COASTLINES. BY MONDAY JOAQUIN
WILL BE ACCELERATING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH IS RELATIVELY MAINTAINED AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIVING
THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT. SEAS FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY, SWAN, AND WNA GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...WE
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO LESS
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIDE AT ALL THE BEACHES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 1 AM AT THE BEACHES AND
3 AM IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING WITH
WATER RUNNING WELL UP ONTO THE BEACHES AND RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
BEACH EROSION.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ054-056.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ106-108-110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...SGL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 3, 10:57 PM EDT, 3 hours 15 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1057 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

NCZ087-096-099-105-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055-050300-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-
INLAND GEORGETOWN-
1057 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-050300-
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
1057 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

NCZ107-050300-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-
1057 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

AMZ250-252-050300-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
1057 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

AMZ254-256-050300-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
1057 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

27

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 3, 8:18 PM EDT, 5 hours 54 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
818 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW DARLINGTON        34.29N  79.92W
10/03/2015                   DARLINGTON         SC   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF FLOODED ROAD NEAR INTERSECTION OF ROGERS RD
            AND SUNSET RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1500366

LACORTE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wilmington, NC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 4, 3:11 AM EDTCoastal Flood AdvisoryILMGeorgetown, Horry6 hr
Oct 4, 9:30 AM EDTCoastal Flood WarningILMGeorgetown, Horry9 hr
Oct 4, 9:39 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningILMFlorence, Horry, Marion9 hr
Oct 4, 1:12 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningILMHorry6 hr
Oct 4, 3:33 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningILMDarlington, Dillon, Florence, Marion, Marlboro3 hr
Oct 4, 6:00 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningILMDarlington, Dillon, Florence, Horry, Marion, Marlboro6 hr
Oct 4, 6:14 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningILMFlorence, Georgetown, Horry, Marion, Williamsburg6 hr
Oct 4, 6:50 PM EDTCoastal Flood AdvisoryILMGeorgetown, Horry11 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in South Carolina, 2015Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.