Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  78  58  78 /  40  20  30  50
SHOALS        50  78  59  80 /  40  20  30  50
VINEMONT      51  76  58  75 /  50  20  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  47  73  56  74 /  40  20  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   51  76  58  74 /  40  20  30  50
FORT PAYNE    48  74  56  73 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ALZ001>004-007-008-016-010500-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-MORGAN-MARSHALL-CULLMAN-
1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE GENERAL IN
NATURE...A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALZ005-006-009-010-TNZ076-096-097-010500-
LIMESTONE-MADISON-JACKSON-DEKALB-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE GENERAL IN NATURE...A COUPLE OF
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
335 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ALZ010-312115-
DE KALB AL-
335 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DE KALB COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
CDT...

AT 335 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
RAINSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF CROSSVILLE.

PENNY SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT PAYNE...RAINSVILLE...LITTLE RIVER CANYON NATIONAL PRESERVE...
COLLINSVILLE...CROSSVILLE...SYLVANIA...FYFFE...POWELL...GERALDINE AND
LITTLE RIVER FALLS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3448 8558 3444 8558 3437 8563 3436 8566
      3426 8577 3426 8581 3424 8581 3424 8584
      3420 8585 3420 8611 3427 8610 3454 8591
      3460 8553 3453 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 271DEG 35KT 3449 8582

KULA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             RAINSVILLE              34.49N 85.85W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       DEKALB             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED.

&&

TT