Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WARM...THE
INVERSION ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUE...ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE GREATER. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ALZ001>004-007-008-016-010500-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-MORGAN-MARSHALL-CULLMAN-
1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE GENERAL IN
NATURE...A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALZ005-006-009-010-TNZ076-096-097-010500-
LIMESTONE-MADISON-JACKSON-DEKALB-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE GENERAL IN NATURE...A COUPLE OF
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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