Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS COMBINING WITH
A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY TSRA WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MIDNIGHT WITH ALL
PCPN ENDING BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MRNG. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT MVFR IN TSRA .

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
415 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ALZ001>010-016-010200-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-
415 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TNZ076-096-097-010200-
MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
415 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
STORMS WILL BE GENERAL IN NATURE...A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
617 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             4 WSW ALBERTVILLE       34.25N 86.29W
03/31/2015  E0.88 INCH       MARSHALL           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN LADDYWOOD COMMUNITY.

&&

KULA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
629 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     HAIL             UNION GROVE             34.40N 86.45W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN UNION GROVE.

&&

KULA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
632 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             3 NNW ARAB              34.37N 86.51W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT MOBBS SCHOOL ROAD AND HIGHWAY 431.

&&

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ALZ001-010015-
LAUDERDALE AL-
633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY
UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 632 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES
NORTH OF KILLEN...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLORENCE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEXINGTON...ST. JOSEPH...KINGTOWN...ZIP CITY...CENTER STAR AND GREEN
HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.
SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8777 3500 8772 3501 8753 3500 8728
      3484 8741 3498 8779
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 295DEG 18KT 3497 8755

SL.77