Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
454 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...MULTIPLE IMPULSES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING IN GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...AN UPPER HIGH WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR AN APPROACHING
BOWING MCS. WITH COLLABORATION WITH SPC...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND NORTH (SEE WCNGSP FOR MORE
DETAILS)...UNTIL 10 PM EDT. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN. CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE MCS WILL EVOLVE AS IT CROSSES
THE APPALACHIANS IS STILL LOW. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE
SHOWS MUCAPE OF AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG EAST OF THE MTNS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN DECREASING AROUND SUNSET. SHEAR ALSO IS WEAKER ONCE
YOU GET TO THE I-77 CORRIDOR...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR ONLY 20-25
KTS. I WILL KEEP A CHC POP SOUTH OF I-85 AND LIKELY FROM ABOUT
KGSP TO KCLT AND NORTH...AS THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FROM N TO S THIS EVENING.

AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO
ROTATE ATOP THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A TROF AXIS DIGS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.  AT THE SURFACE...AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND MODERATELY SHEARED AIRMASS OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION OF
AN ONGOING MCS.  CLOSE TO HOME...LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PLACES
UPWARDS OF 2-3K J/KG SBCAPE ATOP THE NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...WITH A 1.5K J/KG DCAPE MAXIMA CENTERED OVER THE
UPSTATE.  FORTUNATELY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERING IS PRESENT
OVER THESE ZONES THUS THE FCST ONLY FEATURES ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THAT SAID...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY GROW TO STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
MICROBURSTS BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

BEYOND THAT THE FCST SHIFTS FOCUS TO THE PROPAGATION OF UPSTREAM
SEVERE MCS ACTIVITY.  MOST GUIDANCE NOW FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO
MCS TRACKS...THE FIRST COMING INTO THE PICTURE TONIGHT...AND THE
SECOND AROUND EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.  SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AFORE MENTIONED
NIGHTTIME MCS WHERE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE FAVORED.
MODELS AGREE BETTER...HOWEVER STILL NOT AT A CONSENSUS AS TO HOW FAR
EAST ANY SURVIVING CONVECTION WILL STRETCH.  NEVERTHELESS...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINMENT AS THE LIKELY BROKEN
LINE SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE MTNS.  THEREFORE POPS THIS EVENING
FEATURE LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...EASTWARD INTO THE I40
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN NC.  FURTHER SOUTHEAST THE POPS DROP OFF TO HIGH
END CHANCE LEVELS.  THE SECOND POSSIBLE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
GENERALLY 4-5 HOURS BEHIND THE FIRST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF REMAINING INSTABILITY PRESENT
BEHIND THE FIRST MCS.  THINK THE MOST FAVORED TRACK WILL BE JUST TO
THE WEST OVER THE GREAT VALLEY WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
LIKELY RESIDE.  THUS...POPS OVERNIGHT WILL TAPER OVER THE EAST WHERE
SLIGHT CHANCES ARE FAVORED...INCREASING WESTWARD TO LOW END LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE TN LINE.

THE FCST FOR TUESDAY LOOKS TO DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE TRACK OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SECOND MCS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY SUFFER DUE
DO EITHER ITS CONVECTION...OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.  HIRES GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE NC
ZONES BEING CONVECTION FREE.  ANOTHER MORE POTENT MCS TRACK IS
PROGGED BEYOND THE PERIOD AND WILL BE AIDED BY THE PROGRESSION OF
THE PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE.  CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER SHOULD
REMAIN CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART.  THUS...ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE
CARRIED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  SPC HAS PLACED
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FCST IN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE UNSTABLE/SHEARED AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OF 215 PM MONDAY...MAIN ACTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TUE
NIGHT WHEN A RATHER RARE JULY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BEING DRIVEN BY A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SWINGING SE FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TUE
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS RATHER MUTED IN ITS QPF RESPONSE TUE NIGHT AS
IT LIMITS CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT.
THIS IS NOT AN UNUSUAL SCENARIO WITH DEEP LAYER NW FLOW IN PLACE.
THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE UPPER
SUPPORT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE
NAM SOLUTION. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL INDEED BE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS JUST SCT CONVECTIVE CELLS SURVIVING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WIND SHEAR
REMAINS ELEVATED.

AFTER THE BKN-SCT CONVECTIVE LINE CROSSES...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY WED. SOME LINGERING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TN LINE ON WED...AND SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT IN THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...WED SHOULD BE DRY THANKS
TO THE NW FLOW AND RESULTANT LOWER RH'S. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT
A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER TO NEAR
CLIMO VALUES ON THU AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE NE/E.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OF 2 PM MONDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE. THIS PUTS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM PLACING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TRACK BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND AND TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE SE STATES. IN
ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WITH A LEE TROUGH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO GA. THIS SET UP IS FORECAST TO HOLD
THROUGH MONDAY AND SUGGESTS A MAINLY DIURNAL MODE TO THE CONVECTION
WHICH COMMENCES ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD ADVECT INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE TSRA OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS.
INITIALIZED TAF WITH LOW VFR CU AS VISB SATELLITE INDICATES EXPANDING
CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  THE
ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER LACK OF
TRIGGERING IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTION...THUS NO WX IS FEATURED
THROUGH 00Z.  AT 03Z WX IS INTRODUCED AS THE FIRST OHIO VALLEY MCS
ADVECTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER THE EASTWARD EXTENT IS
QUESTIONABLE...THUS ONLY CARRIED A PROB30 WITH MVFR VISB FROM
03Z-06Z.  MODELS PROG MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BEHIND THE
INITIAL ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA...AHEAD OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND MCS ADVECTING IN.  CONFIDENCE IN THE
SECOND MCS IS LOWER THAN THE FIRST...THUS CARRY ONLY VCSH AT THIS
TIME WITH LOW VFR CIGS BY 15Z.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER SHOULD PREVAIL NW BEFORE BACKING SLIGHTLY TO SW
BY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE HOWEVER WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS WITH INCREASING LOW
VFR CU...WITH VCTS MENTIONED AT THE SC SITES WHERE CU FIELD LOOKS
MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTION ALREADY INITIATING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
85 INTO THE MIDLANDS.  OTHERWISE...TAFS DRY OUT INTO EARLY EVENING
AHEAD OF INCREASED CHANCES DUE TO INTRUDING OHIO VALLEY MCS
TONIGHT.  THUS...ALL TAFS FEATURE PROB30S FROM 03Z-06Z FOR SUCH WITH
TIMING BEING THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK.  VCTS IS CARRIED AT ALL
SITES JUST AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE SECOND MCS SLIDES TOWARDS THE
REGION...HOWEVER WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN THE FIRST.  WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN VARIABLE OUT OF NW/SW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SW PREVAILING ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY
BEFORE...AND IN MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   61%     MED   65%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...CDG

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE MARS HILL         35.80N 82.53W
07/13/2015  M3.00 INCH       MADISON            NC   COCORAHS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW FAUST             35.94N 82.54W
07/13/2015  M4.69 INCH       MADISON            NC   MESONET

            SAMS GAP AFWS

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
634 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-501-503-505-132345-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...
CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...
BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...
LAKE JUNALUSKA...ASHEVILLE...EDGEMONT...JONAS RIDGE...OLD FORT
634 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7 AND 730 PM...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BY AROUND 7 PM...THEN MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH ABOUT 730 PM. THE MAIN AREAS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED THROUGH THAT TIME ARE LOCATIONS NORTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
QUITE A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES FALLING. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER ...LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-40
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING ASHEVILLE AND HICKORY COULD SEE SEVERE
WEATHER BY AROUND 8 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE