Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

087 
WGUS72 KGSP 131445
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

NCC115-131615-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-150713T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MADISON NC-
1045 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY...

AT 1038 AM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED JUST LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA BUT LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RUNOFF THROUGHOUT MANY
OF THE TRIBUTARIES FEEDING THE LOWER FRENCH BROAD RIVER. BIG LAUREL
CREEK WAS REPORTED APPROACHING THE HIGHWAY 25/70 AND 208 BRIDGE.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WARNING AREA MAY CAUSE MUD SLIDES NEAR 
STEEP TERRAIN. THE MUD SLIDE CAN CONSIST OF ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION 
AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MARS HILL...WOLF RIDGE...ALLENSTAND AND FAUST. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT FLOOD WATER FLOWING OVER ROADS OR THREATENING
PROPERTY...OR LANDSLIDES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE
SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY
POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR
MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 8259 3600 8261 3599 8260 3597 8261
      3595 8256 3597 8254 3598 8250 3595 8248
      3593 8250 3591 8249 3590 8245 3587 8243
      3582 8241 3580 8248 3580 8252 3577 8259
      3600 8278 3606 8263

$$

934 
WGUS72 KGSP 131609
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1209 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

NCC115-131618-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-150713T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MADISON NC-
1209 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1215 PM EDT...

ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED AND FLOOD WATER WAS RECEDING...STREAMS WILL 
CONTINUE TO RUN AT ELEVATED LEVELS. LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND FLOOD 
PRONE AREAS MAY STILL BE COVERED WITH WATER. DO NOT CROSS FLOODED 
ROADWAYS AND HEED ALL ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3603 8259 3600 8261 3599 8260 3597 8261
      3595 8256 3597 8254 3598 8250 3595 8248
      3593 8250 3591 8249 3590 8245 3587 8243
      3582 8241 3580 8248 3580 8252 3577 8259
      3600 8278 3606 8263

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
725 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...AN UPPER HIGH WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PERSISTING AND
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WILL UPDATE POPS A
LITTLE. CONTEMPLATED AN FLS ACROSS NRN MADISON AS ONE HR RFC RATIOS
APPROACHED 90 PERCENT. HAS SINCE RECEDED...HOWEVER INSTANTANEOUS
RATES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH WITH THESE CELLS...ARND 1.5 IN/HR. ONLY
MINOR ADJS NEEDED TO T/TD GRIDS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NC
PIEDMONT.

ONGOING CONVEC WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES THIS MORNING.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH DEVELOPMENT WITH THESE CELLS AS ELCIN REMAINS
HIGH AND THE UPPER VORT LOBE PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH NC/VA.

UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND BECOME MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE
DAY AS A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM MCS PUSHES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. WEAK
FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL ENCOMPASS THE CWFA THROUGH NOON
BEFORE BECOMING DEFINED ZONAL IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE GFS AND NAM ARE
BOTH SHOWING A VORT MINIMA CROSSING THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE LOW ENUF FOR HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSOLATION AND SFC TD MIXING. THESE
FACTORS WILL LIMIT THE CONVEC POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NON/MTNS AS
LAYERED OMEGA REMAINS CLOSE TO NEUTRAL. THUS...POPS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED TO LOW END CHANCES ACROSS THE NON/MTNS AND MAINTAINED A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE MTNS. THE VARIOUS CAM MODELS AGREE WELL WITH
THIS SCENARIO WITH ONLY ONE OF THE ENS CAMS INDICATING A LITTLE
WIDER ACTIVITY. SOME LATE AFTERNOON STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AS DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES ATOP INCREASING 0-6
KM SHEAR WITHIN MODERATE INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL RESPOND WELL IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS REACHING THE M90S NON/MTNS...AND U80S MTN
VALLEYS.

THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS BTW THE OP MODELS OF THE OH VALLEY MCS
REACHING THE NC MTNS BTW 03Z-06Z. DEEP SHEAR LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE EASTWARD AND MODEST ELCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE ENERGIZED UPPER TROF
APPROACHING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.
LIKELY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HAD ACROSS THE MTNS WITH LOW TO MID
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. LOCALIZED HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS WHERE ANCHORING STORMS MAY DEVELOP. WITH THE
GOOD DYNAMICAL ENVIRON...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME
QUITE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NON/MTNS WILL EXPERIENCE MORE SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOCALIZED QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER
INCH OF LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...A NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE WHICH RUNS FROM TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...WHILE A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES (S/W'S) RIPPLE SOUTHEASTWARD. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOCATED
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AT 12Z TUES WILL DROP SE TOWARD AREA REGION
WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR OR OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
DURING THE DAY TUES. THESE TWO FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE UNUSUALLY
STRONG 30 TO 40 KT ZERO TO 6 KILOMETER COLUMN SHEAR WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR MANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUES PM AND EVEN INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. FALLING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN LOWER FREEZING LEVELS
WHICH WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL A GREATER POSSIBILITY. WE ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER THE ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE FOR THE MTNS TUES PM AND SLIGHT
RISK OUT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE ARE
POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO.
SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP FIRST AND PERHAPS TRANSITION INTO CLUSTERS OR
LINEAR FEATURES. THE LEE TROUGH CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE
LATE PM HEATING AND THEN THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AROUND
06Z WED. THEREFORE...SEVERAL HOURS OF SEVERE WX EXPECTED. THE NAM
HAS A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL TN TO EASTERN NC AT 06Z WED
MOVING SE.

AFTER THE CONVECTIVE LINE CROSSES...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
WILL SLOWLY CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WED. SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS
NEEDED WED AS THE MAIN ENERGY MOVES OUT. WED IS THE TRANSITION DAY
AS DRIER AIR IS POSED TO MOVE IN WED NIGHT FROM THE W AND NW WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE EXERTING STRENGTH INTO OUR AREA WITH ITS CENTER
BEING NEAR TX AND LA BORDER. WIND FLOW AT THE 850MB AND 700MB LEVEL
DECREASES TO 20 TO 25 KTS AT THE END OF THE DAY WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. ON THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE 593DM 500MB RIDGE
WILL BE OVER EAST TEXAS AND LA AREA...THEN RETROGRADE JUST A BIT
OVER TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN THE 500MB FLOW BECOMES MORE NW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL AGAIN BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA. DIURNAL HEATING WITH THE RESULTING INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
WHATEVER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WOULD CREATE
PM CONVECTION. MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE CROSSING VA AND
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW FLOW LATE SATURDAY. SO BETTER CHANCES POP
ARE WARRANTED FOR THAT DAY. A BIT BETTER 500MB TROFINESS ON SUNDAY
WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW AT LEAST WEAK SHORTWAVES APPROACHING AND
REACHING OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND THAT ANY REMNANT MCS
DEBRIS MAY LOWER MAX TEMPS WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS
NEXT WEEKEND WERE BROUGHT DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO TREND FOR MORE OF A TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE HAVING
LESS OF AN INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK A BIT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NON/MTN TERMINALS...BUT ENUF OF A CHANCE IS NOTED IN THE
CAMS FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE PROB30 TSTMS AFT 18Z AT KCLT AS
ULVL FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT. MORNING VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE LOCALIZED MTNS VALLEYS AND MAYBE
ARND KHKY WHERE PRECIP HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. KAVL COULD
SEE SOME LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR BUT TDD/S REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR A
SIGFNT FG THREAT THROUGH DAYBREAK. ALL SITES REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVEC. KAVL AND HKY COULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWERING
CIGS AFT 03Z WITH MCS ACTIVITY REACHING THE MTNS.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY
BEFORE...AND IN MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...DEO
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
629 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-140300-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-
629 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE
BORDER. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK OF SEVERAL OF THE STORMS
HAVING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY PRESENT PROBLEMS IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-
019-140300-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
629 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME
QUITE STRONG AND ONE OR TWO MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INCLUDING DAMAGING
WIND...LARGE HAIL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

DEO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

NCZ048-049-131015-
YANCEY NC-MADISON NC-
508 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM
EDT...

AT 508 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARSHALL. THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARSHALL...MARS HILL...WOLF RIDGE...SWISS...FAUST AND ALLENSTAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

&&

LAT...LON 3581 8242 3581 8246 3580 8247 3580 8252
      3578 8256 3577 8270 3600 8276 3606 8263
      3603 8259 3600 8261 3599 8260 3597 8261
      3595 8256 3601 8246 3607 8242 3608 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 0908Z 180DEG 0KT 3593 8259

KRENTZ