River Flood Warning 14, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RAINFALL CONTINUES...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEGINNING
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND LITTLE TO NO
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. STILL ANTICIPATE TWO
PRIMARY HAZARDS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...RAIN AND WIND. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS UNDERWAY AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED
UPPER SPINNING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PULLING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE NW FROM THE OFFSHORE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE
JOAQUIN INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
SATELLITE AND SOUNDING DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES OF 2
TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION
AND THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT LOCALES WITH VERY WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE LIMITED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IN THE COLD AIR DAMMING REGION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE WEDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES. WILL THUS CONTINUE THE THREATENING FLASH FLOOD
LANGUAGE AND THE LANDSLIDE MENTION IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH LATE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...EASTERLY FLOW IN THE 950 TO 850
MB LAYER WILL RAMP UP TO 50 KT BY LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. GEFS
AND SREF MEAN U WIND ANOMALIES ARE INDICATING SOME 4 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL IN THIS STOUT EASTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED TREES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED DOWN AND THIS SHOULD WORSEN WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS CONSIDERED...BUT SCATTERED
TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...SO
THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE RETAINED THROUGHOUT WITH STRONG LANGUAGE
FOR IMPACTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS THE CLOSED SYSTEM GRADUALLY MEANDERS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE GA COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PIVOT OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP VERY HIGH RAINFALL
RATES GOING IN LOWER PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...WHERE STORM TOTALS COULD
REACH OVER ONE FOOT IN SOME AREAS. THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE VERY
SLOW TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
CONTINUED CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 77. THE CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW GRADIENT MAY
REQUIRE EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE SUNDAY PERIOD AT
SOME POINT. EXPECT CONTINUED SMALL RANGES ON DIURNAL TEMPS GIVEN THE
CONTINUED RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...ON MONDAY...THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
WILL TRACK NE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN RISING
HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST. THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE EAST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER TX...SLIDING ACROSS THE ARKLATX FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SW
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
REGION ON SAT. LOW CHC POPS WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY...THEN DRY UNTIL
SCHC POPS SPREAD NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE IFR
RANGE AS THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAINLY MVFR
TO IFR VSBY UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND LIFR TO IFR CIGS. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE CAD LAYER ARE POSSIBLE BUT THESE SHOULD
BE RATHER SPARSE. NE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL SET UP THROUGH
THE DAY EVERYWHERE BUT KAVL WHERE STEADIER NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED.
WILL MENTION LLWS THROUGHOUT BY EVENING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING STOUT
EASTERLY FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KT IN THE 950 TO 850 MB LAYER.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC. SLOW DRYING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  81%     MED   78%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   62%     MED   78%     MED   78%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       MED   62%     MED   72%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  81%     MED   78%     MED   78%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   69%     MED   78%     MED   78%     HIGH  91%
KAND       LOW   44%     MED   78%     MED   66%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GOING FORWARD...ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE PEAKS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
4 TO 8 ADDITIONAL TOTALS THROUGH THE HEART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 8 TO 12 INCHES FROM THE WESTERN UPSTATE
AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION THROUGH THE LOWER PIEDMONT NEAR
GREENWOOD. THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFE
THREATENING AND DAMAGING FLASHING FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING AS THE
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE LOWER PIEDMONT LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
WHERE THE BANDS MAY BECOME STATIONARY OR PIVOT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
NUMEROUS SLOPE FAILURES AND DEBRIS FLOWS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ONCE
AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...HIGHLIGHTING BOTH FLASH FLOODING
AND THE THREAT OF LANSLIDES AND ROCKSLIDES.

THE MAJORITY OF RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...WITH
THE BLANTYRE POINT IN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE
FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RAINFALL RECORDS FOR SATURDAY OCT 3 2015...

 AVL   1.66   1961
 CLT   2.15   1927
 GSP   0.77   1961

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-
     029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-
     056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG
HYDROLOGY...HG
CLIMATE...NED

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
630 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 ENE OLD FORT          35.65N 82.11W
10/03/2015                   MCDOWELL           NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON GREENLEE RD BLOCKING BOTH LANES.

&&

BAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NW FORT LAWN          34.71N 80.92W
10/03/2015                   CHESTER            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCHP REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT CORBETT RD AND KNOLLWOOD DR.

0615 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 6 NE CORNWELL           34.67N 81.12W
10/03/2015                   CHESTER            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCHP REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT HIGHWAY 321NB AND HOPEWELL
            CHURCH RD.

&&

BAH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NE TABLE ROCK         35.86N 81.78W
10/03/2015                   BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE BLOCKING NC 181 AT BROWN MOUNTAIN OVERLOOK

&&

TPALMER