Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

October 3, 2015Davie County, Rowan County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Oct 3, 2015, 1:12 AM EDT for Davie County, Rowan County, North Carolina. It was in force for 6 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Oct 3, 2015, 1:12 AM EDT (05:12 UTC)
Expired
Oct 3, 2015, 7:00 AM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Davie County, NC, Rowan County, NC

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Oct 3, 5:30 AM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 Wnw Cleveland, NCROAD CLOSURE AT 12500 STATESVILLE BLVD.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this flash flood warning; the first came 258 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 58 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2015-10-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2015-10-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 468 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
561 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
468 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
868 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

323 
WGUS52 KGSP 030512
FFWGSP
NCC059-159-031100-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0029.151003T0512Z-151003T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
112 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  ROWAN COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  DAVIE COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 700 AM EDT

* AT 100 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT AS MUCH AS ONE INCH
  OF NEW RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA SINCE FRIDAY EVENING.
  WIDESPREAD RAIN...FALLING HEAVY TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK.

ON TOP OF INCREASINGLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED
STREAMS...UP TO TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN...IF NOT LOCALLY
MORE...IS EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER
CAN CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOOD WATER FLOWING OVER ROADS OR THREATENING
PROPERTY...OR LANDSLIDES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE
SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY
POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR
MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8018 3551 8074 3568 8077 3585 8071
      3605 8069 3604 8049 3606 8046 3601 8042
      3599 8042 3596 8038 3590 8037 3588 8042
      3584 8039 3583 8049 3577 8045 3574 8046
      3571 8033 3568 8033 3559 8021 3551 8018

$$

CSH
2 follow-up statements
237 
WGUS72 KGSP 030640
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

NCC059-159-031100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-151003T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ROWAN NC-DAVIE NC-
240 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR
ROWAN AND DAVIE COUNTIES...

AT 233 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
THAT LOCALLY AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. RECENT CALLS TO COUNTY COMMUNICATION REVEALED NO ROAD
CLOSURES...BUT AREA RADAR SHOWS IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAIN...
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK.

POOR DRAINAGE AND COMMON FLOOD AREAS THROUGHOUT THE I-85 CORRIDOR...
ESPECIALLY AROUND GREATER SALISBURY...WILL BECOME INCREASING
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING HIGH WATER CONDITIONS DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8018 3551 8074 3568 8077 3585 8071
      3605 8069 3604 8049 3606 8046 3601 8042
      3599 8042 3596 8038 3590 8037 3588 8042
      3584 8039 3583 8049 3577 8045 3574 8046
      3571 8033 3568 8033 3559 8021 3551 8018

$$

CSH
044 
WGUS72 KGSP 031014
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

NCC059-159-031100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-151003T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ROWAN NC-DAVIE NC-
614 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR
ROWAN AND DAVIE COUNTIES...

AT 612 AM EDT...ROWAN COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS REPORTED A ROAD CLOSURE
NEAR THIRD CREEK...OTHERWISE...VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH WATER
CONDITIONS WERE PERSISTING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. WITH PERIODS OF
JUST MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING
WILL BE EXPIRING ON SCHEDULE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY YOUR
VEHICLE. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8018 3551 8074 3568 8077 3585 8071
      3605 8069 3604 8049 3606 8046 3601 8042
      3599 8042 3596 8038 3590 8037 3588 8042
      3584 8039 3583 8049 3577 8045 3574 8046
      3571 8033 3568 8033 3559 8021 3551 8018

$$

CSH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Oct 2, 10:29 PM EDT, 2 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 2, 10:29 PM EDT, 2 hours 43 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1029 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE PRODUCES
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEGINNING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED
INTO THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS AREA WILL SPREAD WEST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE HAVE EVEN
BEEN A COUPLE OF TSRA CELLS AS WELL. ANY TSRA WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
AT BEST. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL NOT NEED ANY THUNDER
TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WITH MANY AREAS PRIMED FROM
PREVIOUS RAINFALL... FLOODING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SOME
POINT...IT WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF TIME AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. GOING FCST IS ON TRACK WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

AS OF 755 PM...SCT GENERALLY LIGHT SHRA AND PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THAT WILL BE CHANGING
AS THE FIRST ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRA IS JUST EAST OF THE
CWFA AND POISED TO MOVE IN. EXPECT THIS AREA TO SPREAD WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA MOVING AS FAR WEST AS THE I-26 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT AND THE
REST OF THE CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING TO
DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE WATER LEVELS ARE ALREADY HIGH...BUT STILL
TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACT LOCATIONS. KEEP ABREAST OF THE FORECAST AND
TAKE ACTION WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH CHANGES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...HAD A GOOD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...IN A BIT OF A LULL NOW WITH
MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SYNOPTIC FEATURES
ARE NO SURPRISE AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. ANOMALOUS MIDLEVEL CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH 100KT 300MB JET STREAKING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA AND THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...PLENTY OF LIFT WITH DPVA AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE
FROM THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHEAST OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW. THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TOWARD THE GULF COAST TODAY BUT THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SURFACE COLD AIR DAMMING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED AS WELL. ADD TO ALL THIS THE NEAR RECORD LEVEL PW
VALUES WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE TROPICS AND WE HAVE THE
SETUP FOR A RAINFALL EVENT OF HISTORIC PROPORTIONS. WANT TO POINT
OUT THAT THE UPPER PATTERN ALONE WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE MOISTURE FROM JOAQUIN IS JUST ENHANCING WHAT WOULD
ALREADY HAVE BEEN AN INCREDIBLY SIGNIFICANT EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ITSELF WILL STAY WELL OFFSHORE...SO JUST TO
CLARIFY...JOAQUIN ITSELF IS NOT...I REPEAT NOT IMPACTING THE
CAROLINAS.

MORE ON ACTUAL RAINFALL AND IMPACTS BELOW. OTHER MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE THE INCREASING WINDS. AS THE MIDLEVEL LOW ROTATES BACK INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GEORGIA TOMORROW...850MB JET WILL PICK UP
TO 40-50KT ACROSS THE UPSTATE. WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS
THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION FROM THE DAMMING
WILL PREVENT THE REALLY STRONG WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN...SO WE
ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ALL BUT THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...ALREADY GETTING TREES COMING DOWN OUT THERE
WITH THE SATURATED SOIL SO WE ARE GOING BASED ON IMPACTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. CLOUDY...COOL...VERY RAINY...AND
WINDY. LOVELY DAY OUT THERE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THIS FCST
REGARDING THE UPCOMING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES ON SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE
EVENT BEING WELL UNDERWAY.  NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE
SYNOPTIC FORCING WHILE POTENT MOIST/ATLANTIC LLV EASTERLY FLOW AIDS
UPGLIDE/UPSLOPING.  SAID ENHANCED LLV FLOW AS EVIDENT ON 925/850
CHARTS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD...SUB ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTING
SATURDAY NIGHT...INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH DUE TO SATURATED SOILS IS
EXPECTED TO YIELD SCATTERED TREE FALLS.  THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER EXTENSION INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS POSSIBLE.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY AS AREAL/RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE.

REGARDING QPF...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
AMOUNTS...PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMA IS STILL IN FLUX GIVEN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.  12Z GFS/CMC AGREE WELL WITH A MAXIMA OF NEARLY 8-12
INCHES ALONG THE I26 CORRIDOR WHILE THE BRAND NEW 12Z ECMWF IS
ORIENTED FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR.  REGARDLESS...A
CONSENSUS AMOUNT OF 6-10 INCHES LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.  TOTALS TAPER FURTHER NORTH
INTO WESTERN NC WHERE STORM TOTALS LOOK CLOSER TO THE 5-8 INCH RANGE
AT BEST.  SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN FACING
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN AMPLE UPSLOPING.  ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMA
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND THEREFORE AWAY FROM THE HIGH
TERRAIN...A THREAT FOR DEBRIS FLOW REMAINS AS SOILS ARE HIGHLY
SATURATED.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY LIFTS AND BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR FROM
LATE MONDAY EVENING ONWARD. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING LOW END
PRECIP CHANCE OVER THE ERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
EXIT OF THE MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING STORM...
BUT EXPECT THAT TO CUT OFF BY 06Z TUESDAY. FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...
EXPECT THE WEATHER TO QUIET DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THRU THURSDAY...SUPPORTING DRY HIGH
PRESSURE. THE PATTERN SHOULD MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...SUCH THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROF APPROACHES ON FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THAT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
MTNS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO A SMALL PRECIP CHANCE WAS INCLUDED.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS CONTINUE AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE DEEPENS. HEAVIER SHRA ARE JUST TO THE EAST AND
MOVING THIS WAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THRU THE NITE AS
THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN WITH CIGS BECOMING LIFR AND VSBY IFR. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THRUT THE MORNING WITH SOME SMALL IMPROVEMENT BY
AFTERNOON TO IFR OR LOW MVFR. GUSTY NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE PERIOD AT ALL BUT KAVL WHERE LIGHTER NLY WIND CONTINUES. GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS...LLWS SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY SAT. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION AT ALL AREAS EXCEPT KAND
WHICH IS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BELT OF STRONGER WINDS.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC. SLOW DRYING IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       MED   75%     MED   78%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       LOW   48%     MED   77%     HIGH  89%     MED   79%
KAVL       HIGH  84%     LOW   51%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       MED   61%     MED   78%     MED   75%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       LOW   51%     MED   69%     HIGH  81%     MED   73%
KAND       MED   64%     MED   64%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  81%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE HAVE A BIT OF A LULL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BUT RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT. NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN
HAS RESULTED IN SOME MINOR TWEAKS. ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST SOUTH
WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...NAM IS
OUT TO LUNCH SO HAS NOT BEEN CONSIDERED FOR THIS FORECAST...AND GFS
SUFFERS FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BUT HAS SHIFTED THE AXIS
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE I-26 CORRIDOR AND ROTATES A SECONDARY
MAXIMUM AROUND THE UPPER LOW DURING THE SHORT TERM. MAIN UNCERTAINTY
LIES WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT WIDESPREAD 6+ INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE OVER 10+. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE OVER A FOOT OF RAIN.

THE REGION HAS OBSERVED AN EIGHT DAY SERIES OF RAINFALL...AT TIMES
HEAVY...RESULTING IN STREAMFLOWS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. AS DISCUSSED IN
THE AFD FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...LIFE THREATENING AND DAMAGING
FLOODS OCCUR WHEN A HEAVY RAIN EVENTS OCCURS DURING WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AND WITH STREAMFLOWS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR TO 2.5 TO 3 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS. THESE RATES WILL BE REACHED AND EXCEEDED...RESULTING IN
FLASH FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. IN ADDITION...EAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE OBSERVED HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE CONTINUED WET PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SLOPE
FAILURES AND DEBRIS FLOWS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ONCE AN ADDITIONAL
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTING BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES AND ROCKSLIDES.

THE MAJORITY OF RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...WITH
BLANTYRE EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE. AS THE RAIN CONTINUES TO PILE
UP...LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE TWEAKED AND ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
LIKELY ISSUED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-
     029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-
     056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...RWH/TDP
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RWH
HYDROLOGY...
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 2, 3:29 PM EDT, 9 hours 43 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
329 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-031930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
329 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS LIKELY.
SEE THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND WIND ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.
..SUNDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS LIKELY.
SEE THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND WIND ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PM

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 3, 12:00 AM EDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1200 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 SW HUNTERSVILLE       35.40N 80.86W
10/02/2015                   MECKLENBURG        NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            HUNTERSVILLE FIRE DEPARTMENT HAS REMOVED A TREE ON REESE
            BLVD.

1100 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW HUNTERSVILLE      35.40N 80.88W
10/02/2015                   MECKLENBURG        NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE AND POWERLINE DOWN ON GILEAD ROAD BETWEEN BRADFORD
            AND WYNFIELD CREEK.

&&

NED
Local storm report, Oct 3, 12:58 AM EDT, 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1258 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SW PIEDMONT             34.71N 82.47W
10/02/2015                   ANDERSON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCHP REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT RIVER RD AND ROSS ST.

1100 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW LAKE WYLIE        35.12N 81.08W
10/02/2015                   YORK               SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCHP REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT NAUTICAL DR AND CHANNEL RD.

&&

BAH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 3, 1:22 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPUnion6 hr
Oct 3, 1:27 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPCabarrus6 hr
Oct 3, 1:38 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPMecklenburg6 hr
Oct 3, 2:59 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPAlexander, Catawba, Iredell3 hr
Oct 3, 6:22 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPCabarrus6 hr
Oct 3, 6:22 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPCabarrus6 hr
Oct 3, 7:37 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPDavie, Iredell, Rowan3 hr
Oct 3, 7:48 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPMecklenburg3 hr
Oct 3, 7:57 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPUnion3 hr
Oct 3, 8:46 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPUnion3 hr
Oct 3, 9:36 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPMecklenburg3 hr
Oct 3, 9:43 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningGSPBuncombe42 hr
Oct 3, 9:43 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningGSPHaywood28 hr
Oct 3, 10:17 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningGSPSwain46 hr
Oct 3, 10:56 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPHenderson6 hr
Oct 3, 11:47 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPMcDowell3 hr
Oct 3, 12:18 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPCabarrus3 hr
Oct 3, 12:22 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPUnion3 hr
Oct 3, 1:41 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPTransylvania3 hr
Oct 3, 1:49 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPPolk, Rutherford3 hr
Oct 3, 2:48 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPMcDowell3 hr
Oct 3, 2:56 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPTransylvania3 hr
Oct 3, 4:59 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPHenderson3 hr
Oct 3, 5:11 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPBurke3 hr
Oct 3, 5:49 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPMcDowell3 hr
Oct 3, 6:00 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPTransylvania3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2015Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.