Alert archive / North Carolina / River Flood Warnings in 2015

River Flood Warning 13, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

October 3, 2015Haywood County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this river flood warning at Oct 3, 2015, 9:43 AM EDT for Haywood County, North Carolina. It took effect at Oct 4, 2015, 2:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 3, 2015, 9:43 AM EDT (13:43 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 4, 2015, 2:00 AM EDT
Expired
Oct 4, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Haywood County, NC

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Pigeon River above Old River Rd (NC 215), 1 SW Canton (CTPN7). The gauge peaked at 6.88 ft at Oct 3, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT.

actionminormoderate5101510/0310/0410/05
Action stage
8 ft
Minor stage
10 ft
Moderate stage
15 ft
Major stage
19 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 03456991, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

252 
WGUS42 KGSP 031343
FLWGSP

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
943 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg
has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...


  French Broad River At Asheville affecting Buncombe County.
  Pigeon River In Nc At Canton affecting Haywood County.


.Runoff from heavy rain will cause the river to rise above flood 
stage.

 Remember...river stage forecasts are based on observed and 
forecasted rainfall. If actual rainfall varies from the forecast 
values...the river stage will vary accordingly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember...nightime makes it
difficult to recognize flooded areas.

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

Please report high water...flooding and landslidesto the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or byposting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtagnwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
thespecific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC021-041343-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FL.W.0012.151004T0941Z-151005T0742Z/
/AVLN7.1.ER.151004T0941Z.151004T1200Z.151004T1942Z.NO/
943 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the French Broad River At Asheville.
* from late tonight to late Sunday night...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 3.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by early Sunday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 10.0 feet by Sunday morning.the river will
  fall below flood stage by Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.5 feet...Flood stage, areas between riverside road 
  and the river near lyman street and south of old burnsville hill 
  road will be flooded. Parts of emma road near craven street and 
  amboy road will be flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8262 3560 8261 3569 8265 3570 8257 3558 8255
      3550 8254             

$$

NCC087-041343-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FL.W.0013.151004T0600Z-151004T1800Z/
/CTPN7.1.ER.151004T0600Z.151004T0600Z.151004T0600Z.NO/
943 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Pigeon River In Nc At Canton.
* from late tonight to Sunday afternoon...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  8:00 AM Saturday the stage was 3.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise to near flood stage early 
  Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Water surrounds some homes on and near 
  fiberville road.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 8292 3553 8286 3553 8290 3557 8290 3555 8281
      3549 8286             

$$

OUTLAW
2 follow-up statements
775 
WGUS82 KGSP 031723
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...South Carolina...


  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania 
  Counties.
  
  French Broad River Near Fletcher affecting Buncombe and Henderson 
  Counties.
  
  French Broad River At Marshall affecting Madison County.
  South Fork Catawba River In Nc At Lowell affecting Gaston County.
  
  Saluda River At West Pelzer affecting Anderson and Greenville 
  Counties.
  
  Saluda River Near Greenville affecting Greenville and Pickens 
  Counties.
  
  Broad River In Sc Near Blacksburg affecting Cherokee and York 
  Counties.
  
  Broad River In Nc At Boiling Springs affecting Cleveland County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...

  French Broad River At Asheville affecting Buncombe County.
  
  Swannanoa River In Nc At Biltmore affecting Buncombe County.
  
  Tuckasegee River At Bryson City affecting Swain County.
  
  Pigeon River In Nc At Canton affecting Haywood County.

  
.Runoff from continuing heavy rain will result in the river 
remaining above flood stage.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

Please report high water...flooding and landslidesto the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or byposting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtagnwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
thespecific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC021-041723-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0012.151004T0941Z-151005T0742Z/
/AVLN7.1.ER.151004T0941Z.151004T1200Z.151004T1942Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the French Broad River At Asheville.
* from late tonight to Sunday afternoon.
* At Noon Saturday the stage was 4.7 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 6.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Impact...At 9.5 feet...Flood stage, areas between riverside road 
  and the river near lyman street and south of old burnsville hill 
  road will be flooded. Parts of emma road near craven street and 
  amboy road will be flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8262 3560 8261 3569 8265 3570 8257 3558 8255
      3550 8254             

$$

NCC089-175-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0003.151004T0012Z-151007T0515Z/
/BLAN7.2.ER.151004T0012Z.151005T0000Z.151006T1715Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* Until late Tuesday night.
* At 1230 PM Saturday the stage was...12.9 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...The river overtops the railroad tracks and 
  will start to flood highway 64. A trailer park on river ridge road 
  will be affected and buildings north of grove bridge road will 
  likely flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

NCC021-089-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0004.151003T2300Z-151005T2024Z/
/FLCN7.1.ER.151003T2300Z.151004T1200Z.151005T0824Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the French Broad River Near Fletcher
* from this evening to Monday afternoon.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 9.4 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 12.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Homes and buildings along the river start 
  to get water in backyards.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3541 8257 3550 8262 3550 8254 3540 8250
      3537 8250             

$$

NCC115-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0005.151004T0738Z-151005T1700Z/
/MARN7.1.ER.151004T0738Z.151004T1800Z.151005T0500Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the French Broad River At Marshall.
* from late tonight to Monday afternoon.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 4.0 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 4.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...The river will be close to the top of the 
  railroad tracks and start to flood areas between highway 70 and the
  river. Flooding of buildings along back street and on 
  blennerhassett island will begin.

&&

LAT...LON 3569 8265 3576 8270 3582 8277 3583 8271 3578 8263
      3570 8257             

$$

SCC021-091-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0006.151004T1727Z-151005T1845Z/
/BBGS1.1.ER.151004T1727Z.151005T0000Z.151005T0645Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the Broad River In Sc Near Blacksburg.
* from Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 6.8 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...River and little hope roads near highway 29
  will be flooded along with farmland near the river. Flooding at 
  this level will be similar to flooding that occurred on july 8, 
  2005.

&&

LAT...LON 3524 8159 3518 8156 3509 8152 3507 8161 3516 8167


$$

NCC045-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0007.151004T0753Z-151005T1800Z/
/BSPN7.2.ER.151004T0753Z.151004T1800Z.151005T0600Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the Broad River In Nc At Boiling Springs
* from late tonight to Monday afternoon.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 5.4 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 12.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Moderate flood stage. Water will reach the 
  steps of mobile homes near the gage site. Local campgrounds near 
  the river will also be affected. Flooding at this level will be 
  similar to flooding that occurred on july 8, 2005.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 8173 3524 8159 3516 8167 3520 8176


$$

NCC021-041200-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0008.151004T0000Z-151004T1200Z/
/BLTN7.1.ER.151004T0000Z.151004T0000Z.151004T0000Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Swannanoa River In Nc At Biltmore
* from this evening to Sunday morning.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 5.0 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 8.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage- the river will cause backwater
  effects on sweeten creek, which will approach some buildings along 
  garfield road. Water will begin flooding parts of nc 81, caledonia 
  road to glendale road and approachs thompson and lodge roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 8255 3563 8255 3563 8245 3558 8244


$$

NCC173-041723-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0014.151004T1200Z-151005T1232Z/
/TKSN7.1.ER.151004T1200Z.151004T1800Z.151005T0032Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Tuckasegee River At Bryson City. 
* from Sunday morning to Monday morning.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 3.5 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The river will overflow it's banks in the 
  park downtown, and low lying aeas along island and collins streets 
  will begin to flood. Toot hollow branch that flows into the river 
  will likely overflow its banks and flood areas along the branch 
  especially along waters street.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 8339 3543 8339 3541 8348 3544 8348 3544 8342


$$

NCC071-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0009.151004T0400Z-151004T2200Z/
/LOWN7.1.ER.151004T0400Z.151004T0600Z.151004T1000Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the South Fork Catawba River In Nc At Lowell. 
* from late tonight to Sunday evening.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 4.8 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...The river will overflow its banks and begin
  to flood the riverside park and portions of goat island park. Water
  approachs riverside drive near 5th and 6th streets in cramerton.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8126 3537 8108 3518 8102 3518 8110


$$

SCC007-045-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0010.151004T1434Z-151005T2100Z/
/WEPS1.1.ER.151004T1434Z.151005T0000Z.151005T0900Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the Saluda River At West Pelzer.
* from Sunday morning to Monday afternoon.
* At 09 AM Saturday the stage was 5.0 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage is reached. Further flooding of
  woodlands and fields downstream of gage will occurr. Flooding of a 
  home near culbertson court and arden road will begin (greenville 
  county). Homes on adger street (anderson county) will begin to 
  flood. +

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8250 3478 8241 3473 8242 3461 8238 3459 8249
      3464 8252             

$$

SCC045-077-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0011.151004T0437Z-151005T1703Z/
/GSLS1.1.ER.151004T0437Z.151004T1200Z.151005T0503Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the Saluda River Near Greenville. 
* from late tonight to Monday afternoon.
* At 10 AM Saturday the stage was 4.2 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 8.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Impact...At 11.5 feet...Homes will be surrounded by water on 
  riverview circle south of highway 123 and parts of riverview drive 
  will begin to flood. +

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8250 3486 8253 3486 8243 3478 8241


$$

NCC087-041723-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0013.151004T0600Z-151004T1800Z/
/CTPN7.1.ER.151004T0600Z.151004T0600Z.151004T0600Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Pigeon River In Nc At Canton.
* from late tonight to Sunday afternoon.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 3.9 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Water surrounds some homes on and near 
  fiberville road.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 8292 3553 8286 3553 8290 3557 8290 3555 8281
      3549 8286             

$$

OUTLAW
754 
WGUS82 KGSP 040336
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1136 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the PIEGON RIVER
in North Carolina...

   At Canton affecting Haywood County.

.Water levels will remain below flood stage. However...flow will 
likely remain high. No additional impacts are expected.

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

&&

NCC087-040406-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-151004T0405Z/
/CTPN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1136 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Pigeon River At Canton.
* At 11 PM Saturday the stage was 6.4 feet.
* Action stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river will crest below flood stage at 7.5 feet 
  Sunday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 8292 3553 8286 3553 8290 3557 8290 3555 8281
      3549 8286             

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 3, 6:53 AM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 3, 6:53 AM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RAINFALL CONTINUES...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEGINNING
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND LITTLE TO NO
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. STILL ANTICIPATE TWO
PRIMARY HAZARDS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...RAIN AND WIND. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS UNDERWAY AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED
UPPER SPINNING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PULLING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE NW FROM THE OFFSHORE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE
JOAQUIN INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
SATELLITE AND SOUNDING DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES OF 2
TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION
AND THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT LOCALES WITH VERY WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE LIMITED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IN THE COLD AIR DAMMING REGION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE WEDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES. WILL THUS CONTINUE THE THREATENING FLASH FLOOD
LANGUAGE AND THE LANDSLIDE MENTION IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH LATE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...EASTERLY FLOW IN THE 950 TO 850
MB LAYER WILL RAMP UP TO 50 KT BY LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. GEFS
AND SREF MEAN U WIND ANOMALIES ARE INDICATING SOME 4 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL IN THIS STOUT EASTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED TREES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED DOWN AND THIS SHOULD WORSEN WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS CONSIDERED...BUT SCATTERED
TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA...SO
THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE RETAINED THROUGHOUT WITH STRONG LANGUAGE
FOR IMPACTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS THE CLOSED SYSTEM GRADUALLY MEANDERS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE GA COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PIVOT OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP VERY HIGH RAINFALL
RATES GOING IN LOWER PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...WHERE STORM TOTALS COULD
REACH OVER ONE FOOT IN SOME AREAS. THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE VERY
SLOW TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
CONTINUED CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 77. THE CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW GRADIENT MAY
REQUIRE EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE SUNDAY PERIOD AT
SOME POINT. EXPECT CONTINUED SMALL RANGES ON DIURNAL TEMPS GIVEN THE
CONTINUED RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...ON MONDAY...THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
WILL TRACK NE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN RISING
HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST. THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE EAST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER TX...SLIDING ACROSS THE ARKLATX FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SW
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
REGION ON SAT. LOW CHC POPS WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY...THEN DRY UNTIL
SCHC POPS SPREAD NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE IFR
RANGE AS THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAINLY MVFR
TO IFR VSBY UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND LIFR TO IFR CIGS. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE CAD LAYER ARE POSSIBLE BUT THESE SHOULD
BE RATHER SPARSE. NE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL SET UP THROUGH
THE DAY EVERYWHERE BUT KAVL WHERE STEADIER NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED.
WILL MENTION LLWS THROUGHOUT BY EVENING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING STOUT
EASTERLY FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KT IN THE 950 TO 850 MB LAYER.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC. SLOW DRYING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  81%     MED   78%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   62%     MED   78%     MED   78%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       MED   62%     MED   72%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  81%     MED   78%     MED   78%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       MED   69%     MED   78%     MED   78%     HIGH  91%
KAND       LOW   44%     MED   78%     MED   66%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GOING FORWARD...ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE PEAKS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
4 TO 8 ADDITIONAL TOTALS THROUGH THE HEART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 8 TO 12 INCHES FROM THE WESTERN UPSTATE
AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION THROUGH THE LOWER PIEDMONT NEAR
GREENWOOD. THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFE
THREATENING AND DAMAGING FLASHING FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING AS THE
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE LOWER PIEDMONT LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
WHERE THE BANDS MAY BECOME STATIONARY OR PIVOT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
NUMEROUS SLOPE FAILURES AND DEBRIS FLOWS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ONCE
AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...HIGHLIGHTING BOTH FLASH FLOODING
AND THE THREAT OF LANSLIDES AND ROCKSLIDES.

THE MAJORITY OF RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...WITH
THE BLANTYRE POINT IN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE
FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RAINFALL RECORDS FOR SATURDAY OCT 3 2015...

 AVL   1.66   1961
 CLT   2.15   1927
 GSP   0.77   1961

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-
     029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-
     056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG
HYDROLOGY...HG
CLIMATE...NED
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 3, 5:13 AM EDT, 4 hours 30 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-040915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
513 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS LIKELY.
SEE THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND WIND ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 3, 6:14 AM EDT, 3 hours 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WNW CLEVELAND         35.74N 80.71W
10/03/2015                   ROWAN              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ROAD CLOSURE AT 12500 STATESVILLE BLVD.

&&

BAH
Local storm report, Oct 3, 6:30 AM EDT, 3 hours 13 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
630 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 ENE OLD FORT          35.65N 82.11W
10/03/2015                   MCDOWELL           NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON GREENLEE RD BLOCKING BOTH LANES.

&&

BAH
Local storm report, Oct 3, 6:54 AM EDT, 2 hours 49 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NW FORT LAWN          34.71N 80.92W
10/03/2015                   CHESTER            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCHP REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT CORBETT RD AND KNOLLWOOD DR.

0615 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 6 NE CORNWELL           34.67N 81.12W
10/03/2015                   CHESTER            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCHP REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT HIGHWAY 321NB AND HOPEWELL
            CHURCH RD.

&&

BAH
Local storm report, Oct 3, 9:03 AM EDT, 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
903 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CONCORD                 35.41N 80.59W
10/03/2015                   CABARRUS           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STOUGH ROAD CLOSED BETWEEN HIGHWAY 49 AND ROBERTA ROAD
            DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. OLD CHARLOTTE ROAD CLOSED DUE TO
            CLOGGED STORM DRAIN.

0902 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CONCORD                 35.41N 80.59W
10/03/2015                   CABARRUS           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FIVE TREES DOWN IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS TOWN.

&&

TPALMER
Local storm report, Oct 3, 9:23 AM EDT, 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
923 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MORGANTON               35.74N 81.70W
10/03/2015                   BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG KIRKSEY DRIVE NEAR AMHERST ROAD.

&&

TPALMER
Local storm report, Oct 3, 9:29 AM EDT, 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NE TABLE ROCK         35.86N 81.78W
10/03/2015                   BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE BLOCKING NC 181 AT BROWN MOUNTAIN OVERLOOK

&&

TPALMER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 3, 1:12 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPDavie, Rowan6 hr
Oct 3, 1:22 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPUnion6 hr
Oct 3, 1:27 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPCabarrus6 hr
Oct 3, 1:38 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPMecklenburg6 hr
Oct 3, 2:59 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPAlexander, Catawba, Iredell3 hr
Oct 3, 6:22 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPCabarrus6 hr
Oct 3, 6:22 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPCabarrus6 hr
Oct 3, 7:37 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPDavie, Iredell, Rowan3 hr
Oct 3, 7:48 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPMecklenburg3 hr
Oct 3, 7:57 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPUnion3 hr
Oct 3, 8:46 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPUnion3 hr
Oct 3, 9:36 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPMecklenburg3 hr
Oct 3, 9:43 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningGSPBuncombe42 hr
Oct 3, 10:17 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningGSPSwain46 hr
Oct 3, 10:56 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPHenderson6 hr
Oct 3, 11:47 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPMcDowell3 hr
Oct 3, 12:18 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPCabarrus3 hr
Oct 3, 12:22 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPUnion3 hr
Oct 3, 1:41 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPTransylvania3 hr
Oct 3, 1:49 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPPolk, Rutherford3 hr
Oct 3, 2:48 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPMcDowell3 hr
Oct 3, 2:56 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPTransylvania3 hr
Oct 3, 4:59 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPHenderson3 hr
Oct 3, 5:11 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPBurke3 hr
Oct 3, 5:49 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPMcDowell3 hr
Oct 3, 6:00 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPTransylvania3 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2015Every river flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.