Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
110 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA BY MID WEEK...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR NEW
YEARS DAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EST TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED WITH ANY CONVECTION
BEING SHALLOW ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY LIGHTNING THREAT RECENTLY.
THAT SAID...LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE RETREATING WEDGE
FRONT ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT...THUS NOT WILLING TO SAY WE ARE
TOTALLY OUT OF THE WOODS YET.  OTHERWISE...CONTINUING TO MONITOR
RIVER LEVELS AS WELL AS ANY URBAN FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN THE BROAD
AREA OF PRECIP SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA AT THE MOMENT.
WITH THAT...OTHER THAN CURRENT FLOOD PRODUCTS THAT HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY ISSUED...THE NEXT IMMEDIATE THREAT WILL BE MIGRATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RATES...UPWARDS OF HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
PER HOUR...OVER CLT METRO WITHIN THE NEXT 90 MINUTES.  THUS WOULDNT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SPORADIC ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR URBAN AREAS
OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGION.  AS FOR THE FCST...NO SIG CHANGES
NEEDED THUS ONLY TWEAKED POPS/TEMPS AND DEWS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
OBS/RADAR TRENDS.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPGLIDE SHOULD SLOWLY SHUT OFF FROM 09Z
ONWARD AS THE 850 MB FLOW VEERS MORE SWLY AND THE SFC BOUNDARY LIFTS
BACK NORTH OF THE REGION.  THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN CROSS
THE AREA SLOWLY ON TUE...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON
WHEN IT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THE FASTER GFS HAS LITTLE INSTABILITY
FOR TUE AFTN...WHILE THE SLOWER NAM HAS 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF LATE
AFTN CAPE. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL KEEP SCHC TO CHC SHOWERS GOING
IN SE SECTIONS THROUGH LATE DAY. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ANOTHER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK POPS
AND RAIN RATES AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS
WILL BE LLVL ISENT LIFT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM A BIT MORE MUTED ON QPF RESPONSE THAN WHAT I
SAW AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AND THE LATEST WPC QPF IS SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED. I BLENDED IN SOME OF THE OLD FCST AND CONSALL FOR QPF. THIS
STILL RESULTS IN AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" ACRS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND
SW NC MTNS. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE ENUF TO AGGRAVATE THE HYDRO
CONDITIONS (SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW).

THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE SOME INSTBY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. I WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC OF THUNDER. THE
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW...HOWEVER...AS LLVL FLOW WILL BE VEERED AND
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A GENERAL THUNDER AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 20-30 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER JET AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST...AND A VERY GRADUAL DRYING FROM THE BOTTOM UP IN THE PROFILES
IS EXPECTED. MODELS HOLD ONTO TO MOIST ISENT LIFT IN THE MID LVLS
THRU MOST OF THE DAY...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER...AND POPS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY TAPER OFF. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON THURSDAY...BUT
STILL 10-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS 00Z FRIDAY WITH A
RATHER DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE JUST PASSED THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDOWN ON NEW YEARS
EVE...WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE REGION RIGHT ON
ITS HEELS. THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH ARRIVING AS A SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. A DRY SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD IN AS THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH PASSES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE CLEAN...WITH MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN TIME FOR NEW YEARS DAY. BOTH MAX
AND MIN TEMPS WILL DROP TO AVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
FIRST UPPER TROUGH PASSES...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA DROPPING TO
FREEZING OVERNIGHT AND HIGHER TERRAIN POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH DIPS DOWN ON MONDAY...MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN DROP TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD ENDING
TUESDAY MORNING...PROVIDING A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THE VERY WET
PATTERN FEATURED THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFR THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS CIGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN
LOW AHEAD OF WARM SECTOR PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION.  THE EARLIER WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD...THUS DID ALLOW FOR SE WINDS AT TAF INITIALIZATION
WITH IFR CIGS AND MOD SHRA.  PRECIP INTENSITY WILL IMPROVE AFTER
A FEW HOURS ONCE THE INITIAL BAND OF SHRA MOVES EAST...HOWEVER
CIGS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTED AT LIFR THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO IFR BY AROUND 12Z-15Z WITH VISB INCREASING TO P6SM
WITH NO WX MENTIONED.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHERLY AND
REMAIN MODEST WITH SUSTAINED FLOW IN THE 12-18KT WITH A FEW LOW
END GUSTS NOT BEING RULED OUT.  DID HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONTAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE HOWEVER WITH TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF CURRENT PRECIP SHIELD SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.  CIGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR
LEVELS AT ALL SITES INITIALLY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY
MORNING AT KAVL AS DRIER ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.  THE REMAINING
SITES WILL SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR...THEN EVENTUALLY VFR AT ALL
LOCALES BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED WITH GUSTING POSSIBLE.  KHKY WILL SEE NE FLOW
THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE TO THE SLOW RETREAT OF THE WEDGE FRONT...WHILE
ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN SOUTHERLY INTO THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE
WITH A FEW LOW STRATOCU POSSIBLE BENEATH MID/HIGH CIRRUS.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY...WITH A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS THE
FRONT MOVES BACK NORTHWARD. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       MED   70%     MED   74%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       MED   68%     MED   73%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       MED   75%     MED   69%     HIGH  99%     MED   75%
KGMU       MED   60%     MED   77%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  81%     HIGH  97%     MED   75%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
NC...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE WESTERN SC UPSTATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES SHOULD BE 2 TO 3+ STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH AMPLE UPSLOPING POTENTIAL TO SET THE STAGE FOR THE
FLOODING THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE FAR SRN APPALACHIANS...TAPERING DOWN TO THE EAST WITH
JUST A HALF TO THREE QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS IN MOST PIEDMONT AREAS. NO
EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.

THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY SLUG OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH SATURATED SOILS IN
PLACE FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF HEAVY RAIN...THIS SECOND WAVE COULD
RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST WPC QPF VALUES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN...AS MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER. BUT STILL AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF RAIN THRU
WEDNESDAY AFTN MAY BE ENUF TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOOD ISSUES.

STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES FOR THE TWO WAVES ARE WIDESPREAD 2.5 TO 3+
INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...WITH TOTALS OF 4 TO 5+
INCHES ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR SRN MOUNTAINS. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT EVERYWHERE THAT IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE >2.5
INCHES THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE
THE SW MOUNTAINS IN MODERATE RISK AND MOST OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT
RISK FOR DAY 1...THE SW NC MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE GA AND MOST OF
THE SC COUNTIES IN SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2...AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE
FLOOD WATCH AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TUESDAY DECEMBER 29...

 AVL   74    1984
 CLT   74    1984
 GSP   72    1984

DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TUESDAY DEC 29...

 AVL   56    1954
 CLT   61    1954
 GSP   54    1996

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501>510.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065.
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-010-011.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
448 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-292200-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
448 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING LIKELY. A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED...ONE TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. DUE
TO NEARLY SATURATED SOILS AND HIGH RIVER LEVELS...SOME FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING LIKELY.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-292200-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
448 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ALONG A FRONT SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE WEST.
ISOLATED FLOODING COULD RESULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE HEAVY RAIN
CHANCES ARE GREATEST IN THE MORNING.
..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ501>507-509-292200-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-
448 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING LIKELY. A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED...ONE TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. DUE
TO NEARLY SATURATED SOILS AND HIGH RIVER LEVELS...SOME FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING LIKELY.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ508-510-SCZ001>007-010-011-292200-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
448 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING LIKELY. A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED...ONE TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. DUE
TO NEARLY SATURATED SOILS AND HIGH RIVER LEVELS...SOME FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING LIKELY.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ068>072-082-SCZ008-009-012>014-019-292200-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-CHEROKEE-YORK-
LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
448 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
PRESENT A NON ZERO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE HEAVY RAIN
CHANCES ARE GREATEST IN THE MORNING.
..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ENE DILLARD           34.98N 83.32W
12/28/2015                   RABUN              GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS MUD CREEK IS OUT OF ITS BANKS AND FLOODING
            SKY VALLEY WAY. UNABLE TO DRIVE ACROSS THE FLOW OF WATER.

&&

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1218 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

GAZ029-NCZ065-068-507>510-SCZ002-003-005>008-010>013-019-290615-
ELBERT GA-CLEVELAND NC-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-
HENDERSON NC-EASTERN POLK NC-POLK MOUNTAINS NC-ABBEVILLE SC-
CHEROKEE SC-ANDERSON SC-GREATER GREENVILLE SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-SPARTANBURG SC-
GREATER PICKENS SC-LAURENS SC-UNION SC-GREENWOOD SC-
1218 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

...AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
ELBERT...RUTHERFORD...POLK...CLEVELAND...HENDERSON...PICKENS...
GREENVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...GREENWOOD...SPARTANBURG...ABBEVILLE...
CHEROKEE AND ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM EST...

AT 1216 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS ORIENTED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HENDERSONVILLE TO 14 MILES WEST OF ABBEVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...CAUSING MINOR FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN
AREAS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN...SPARTANBURG...ANDERSON...GREENWOOD...EASLEY...
GAFFNEY...HENDERSONVILLE...LAURENS...FOREST CITY AND ABBEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8205 3397 8218 3402 8224 3397 8231
      3406 8233 3408 8248 3401 8260 3396 8257
      3399 8286 3540 8250 3555 8200 3554 8185
      3561 8176 3556 8155 3445 8173 3437 8178
      3430 8190 3421 8194 3413 8187 3395 8204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 242DEG 29KT 3524 8236 3416 8262

08