Tornado Warning 62, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTERACTS WITH
NUMEROUS MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AS WELL AS
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WE EXPECT STORM
CHANCES TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES. AGAIN SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WE WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND BRING
AN END TO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY
AND ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED
TO FLATTEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE RAIN CHANCES NEXT SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL STILL HAVE TO BE CONCERNED WITH FLOODING
THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO SATURATED CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 106 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/
THE LARGEST IMPACT TO AVIATION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 6 T0
10 HOURS. WE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES AND EVEN AN APPROACHING DRY LINE
AND COLD FRONT. OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL
BE FROM 18Z UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. STORMS MAY START A BIT LATER IN WACO
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

THE DRY LINE WILL ENTER INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
WITH ALL PRECIPITATION ENDING AT THE TAF SITES BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY.

EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
AROUND 06Z BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
INCREASE UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE WIND SHIFT IN WACO SHOULD
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z MONDAY.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  79  56  73  59 /  70  20  20  40  50
WACO, TX              65  82  57  72  60 /  80  40  60  60  50
PARIS, TX             63  78  56  73  59 /  80  30  10  30  40
DENTON, TX            58  79  54  74  59 /  70  20  10  40  50
MCKINNEY, TX          59  78  56  74  59 /  80  20  10  40  50
DALLAS, TX            62  80  57  73  59 /  80  20  20  40  50
TERRELL, TX           64  80  58  74  60 /  80  40  20  40  50
CORSICANA, TX         65  83  59  73  61 /  80  40  40  40  50
TEMPLE, TX            66  84  58  69  62 /  80  60  60  60  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  78  56  72  59 /  50  20  20  40  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>121-129>134-141-143>145.

&&

79/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
539 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ121-102330-
KAUFMAN TX-
539 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KAUFMAN COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 538 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR COMBINE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF SEAGOVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 35
MPH. WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED ON RADAR AND IS BEING
CLOSELY OBSERVED.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TERRELL...SEAGOVILLE...FORNEY...KAUFMAN...CRANDALL...COMBINE...
TALTY...GRAYS PRAIRIE...COTTONWOOD...OAK GROVE...POST OAK BEND
CITY...ROSSER...OAK RIDGE AND LAWRENCE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 486 AND 504.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3238 9629 3238 9643 3241 9644 3243 9647
      3249 9651 3251 9651 3251 9650 3253 9651
      3253 9652 3281 9652 3281 9633 3283 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 192DEG 32KT 3251 9649

JLDUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
547 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NW LAGUNA PARK        31.92N  97.45W
05/10/2015  E70 MPH          BOSQUE             TX   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            TREES UPROOTED NEAR LAKE WHITNEY. ESTIMATED 70 TO 80 MPH
            WINDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
553 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW CLIFTON            31.83N  97.64W
05/10/2015                   BOSQUE             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BARN WAS DAMAGED ON ROUTE 6 BETWEEN CLIFTON AND
            MERIDIAN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
554 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             5 NW CLIFTON            31.83N  97.64W
05/10/2015  E1.75 INCH       BOSQUE             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS REPORTED BETWEEN
            MERIDIAN AND CLIFTON ON ROUTE 6.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
605 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ091-101-102-102345-
MONTAGUE TX-WISE TX-JACK TX-
605 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WISE...MONTAGUE AND
JACK COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 604 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MONTAGUE AND JACK COUNTIES...MOVING NORTH AT 30
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING IN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE VERY SATURATED GROUNDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRIDGEPORT...BOWIE...JACKSBORO...NOCONA...ALVORD...ST. JO...CHICO...
BRYSON...STONEBURG...FORESTBURG...SUNSET...BOONSVILLE...NEWPORT...
RUNAWAY BAY AND LAKE BRIDGEPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3390 9758 3392 9750 3352 9749 3301 9791
      3301 9841 3324 9842 3347 9820 3347 9798
      3369 9798 3374 9793 3396 9760
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 202DEG 24KT 3359 9771

JLDUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     HAIL             CARL'S CORNER           32.09N  97.04W
05/10/2015  E1.00 INCH       HILL               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR THE I35W/I35E SPLIT AT CARL'S
            CORNER.