Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
358 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY
TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING.

BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WE WILL REMAIN IN A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 330 AM...TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL SERVE TO ONLY
EXACERBATE FLOODING WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM
RAINS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE
1.5 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES...WHICH IS APPROACHING THE 99TH PRECENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO
HAMILTON TO HILLSBORO TO TERRELL TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS FRONT WILL NOT DRY US OUT...AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT....WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...WE SHOULD HAVE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST...WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/
THE CHALLENGES CONTINUES REGARDING CONVECTION AND OCCURRENCE
WHICH MIXING FROM OUTFLOW IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON DELAYING MVFR
CIGS AT DFW METRO TERMINALS. THE METEOROLOGY IS BELOW IN THE
UPDATE...BUT CURRENT WILL CARRY VFR/VCTS WITH TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBYS
AND TSRA THROUGH 08Z AT ALL BUT KDAL AND KAFW. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF LULL WITH SUBSIDENCE AFTER 09Z AS MVFR CIGS...POSSIBLY TEMPO
IFR CIGS OCCURS AFTER 08Z-09Z ACROSS THE METRO TERMINALS.
AFTERWARD...YET MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE IN THE 11Z-16Z TIME
FRAME SUNDAY...POSSIBLY LINGER WELL PAST 18Z THOUGH MY CONFIDENCE
IN ANY MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS NEAR ZERO. DO BRING VFR
CIGS/-SHRA/VCTS BACK BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SSE WINDS 10-15
KTS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTHERLY 15-20 KTS/GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE AGAIN.

AS FOR WACO...WITHOUT AS MUCH CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE EARLY ON WE
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY NO LATER THAN 07Z. OTHERWISE...ALL
TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR WITH DFW AFTER 11Z SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA/TSRA. WIND TRENDS ARE SIMILAR
AS WELL.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  67  78  59  73 /  80  70  30  30  50
WACO, TX              82  67  81  60  74 /  70  80  50  60  70
PARIS, TX             80  66  78  58  73 /  70  80  30  20  40
DENTON, TX            80  63  77  56  73 / 100  70  20  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  65  78  57  73 /  70  80  30  20  50
DALLAS, TX            81  67  78  59  75 /  70  80  30  30  50
TERRELL, TX           82  68  80  60  74 /  70  80  40  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         84  68  81  62  74 /  70  80  50  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            83  68  83  61  74 /  70  80  60  60  70
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  61  76  57  72 / 100  50  20  20  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>121-129>134-141-143>145.

&&

58/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
426 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
426 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY
INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME OF EVENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
123 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEBURNE                32.35N  97.40W
05/10/2015                   JOHNSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AWNING BLOWN DOWN AT GAS STATION AND TREE SNAPPED ABOUT
            3 FEET FROM THE BOTTOM.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
657 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ119-101245-
DALLAS TX-
657 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DALLAS COUNTY UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

AT 657 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
IRVING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FARMERS BRANCH...UNIVERSITY PARK...ADDISON AND HIGHLAND PARK AROUND
710 AM CDT.
  MESQUITE AROUND 720 AM CDT.
  GARLAND AROUND 725 AM CDT.
  DALLAS...RICHARDSON AND SACHSE AROUND 730 AM CDT.
  ROWLETT AROUND 735 AM CDT.
  WYLIE AROUND 740 AM CDT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3298 9652 3255 9652 3255 9704 3299 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 1157Z 235DEG 37KT 3281 9692

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ092>094-101245-
GRAYSON TX-COOKE TX-FANNIN TX-
702 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRAYSON AND COOKE COUNTIES UNTIL
745 AM CDT...

AT 701 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR COLLINSVILLE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF WHITESBORO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...GAINESVILLE...WHITESBORO...VAN ALSTYNE...HOWE...
POTTSBORO...COLLINSVILLE...WHITEWRIGHT...GUNTER...BELLS...TOM BEAN...
LINDSAY...SAVOY...CALLISBURG...KNOLLWOOD...DORCHESTER...LAKE KIOWA...
EISENHOWER STATE PARK AND SOUTHERN LAKE TEXOMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3396 9691 3387 9688 3387 9680 3382 9676
      3384 9669 3392 9667 3390 9659 3385 9663
      3378 9643 3369 9636 3339 9638 3345 9730
      3389 9731 3389 9718 3376 9719 3372 9711
      3382 9705 3385 9709 3385 9701 3396 9698
TIME...MOT...LOC 1201Z 235DEG 37KT 3349 9695

DUNN