River Flood Warning 63, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
106 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.AVIATION...
THE LARGEST IMPACT TO AVIATION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 6 T0
10 HOURS. WE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES AND EVEN AN APPROACHING DRY LINE
AND COLD FRONT. OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL
BE FROM 18Z UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. STORMS MAY START A BIT LATER IN WACO
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

THE DRY LINE WILL ENTER INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
WITH ALL PRECIPITATION ENDING AT THE TAF SITES BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY.

EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
AROUND 06Z BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
INCREASE UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE WIND SHIFT IN WACO SHOULD
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z MONDAY.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUE FOR NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY. THERE IS ALSO DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR
IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ABOUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WAS WORKED OVER FROM MORNING
CONVECTION BUT THE SOUTHERN ZONES REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH LOWER 70
DEWPOINTS. WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE A
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER...THE BEST AIR AND LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND
THIS IS WHERE WE FEEL THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
BE.

THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL COME FROM FLASH FLOODING SINCE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL SO MOIST AND MANY AREAS ARE SUPER SATURATED
FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY
TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING.

BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WE WILL REMAIN IN A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 330 AM...TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL SERVE TO ONLY
EXACERBATE FLOODING WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM
RAINS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE
1.5 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES...WHICH IS APPROACHING THE 99TH PRECENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO
HAMILTON TO HILLSBORO TO TERRELL TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS FRONT WILL NOT DRY US OUT...AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT....WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...WE SHOULD HAVE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST...WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  67  78  59  73 /  70  70  30  30  50
WACO, TX              82  67  81  60  74 /  70  80  50  60  70
PARIS, TX             80  66  78  58  73 /  70  80  30  20  40
DENTON, TX            80  63  77  56  73 /  70  70  20  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  65  78  57  73 /  70  80  30  20  50
DALLAS, TX            81  67  78  59  75 /  70  80  30  30  50
TERRELL, TX           82  68  80  60  74 /  70  80  40  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         84  68  81  62  74 /  70  80  50  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            83  68  83  61  74 /  70  80  60  60  70
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  61  76  57  72 /  70  50  20  20  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>121-129>134-141-143>145.

&&

79/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
426 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
426 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY
INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1115 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 AM     HAIL             LAKE RAY HUBBARD        32.89N  96.59W
05/10/2015  E1.00 INCH       DALLAS             TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF 1" HAIL NEAR LAKE RAY
            HUBBARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ117-130-131-101745-
PARKER TX-HOOD TX-ERATH TX-
1204 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HOOD...PARKER AND
NORTHEASTERN ERATH COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1204 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER LIPAN...OR 14 MILES WEST OF GRANBURY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEATHERFORD...WILLOW PARK...ALEDO...HUDSON OAKS...ANNETTA...LIPAN...
COOL...OAK TRAIL SHORES...TOLAR...ANNETTA SOUTH...ANNETTA NORTH AND
MILLSAP.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
 INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 392 AND 422.
 INTERSTATE 30 NEAR MILE MARKER 1.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3251 9807 3298 9799 3272 9755 3269 9755
      3232 9798 3246 9820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 217DEG 40KT 3249 9804

JLDUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ117-101830-
PARKER TX-
1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARKER COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 1240 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR WEATHERFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEATHERFORD...MINERAL WELLS...AZLE...BRIAR...WILLOW PARK...RENO...
ALEDO...SPRINGTOWN...HUDSON OAKS...ANNETTA...COOL...POOLVILLE...
MINERAL WELLS STATE PARK...ANNETTA SOUTH...ANNETTA NORTH...MILLSAP
AND SANCTUARY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 390 AND 422.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3300 9805 3299 9755 3256 9756 3257 9807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 208DEG 35KT 3269 9778

JLDUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ092-093-103-101845-
GRAYSON TX-COOKE TX-DENTON TX-
1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON...
NORTHWESTERN DENTON AND COOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 1259 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR GAINESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DENTON...GAINESVILLE...SANGER...WHITESBORO...PILOT POINT...
POTTSBORO...COLLINSVILLE...LINDSAY...CALLISBURG...LAKE KIOWA...
EISENHOWER STATE PARK...RAY ROBERTS PARK JOHNSON BRANCH...RAY ROBERTS
PARK ISLE DU BOIS...SOUTHWESTERN LAKE TEXOMA...SOUTHMAYD...TIOGA...
VALLEY VIEW AND SADLER.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 472 AND 503.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3396 9691 3385 9686 3387 9680 3382 9675
      3387 9668 3383 9660 3328 9705 3328 9739
      3386 9733 3386 9726 3392 9723 3389 9718
      3380 9721 3372 9714 3373 9709 3382 9705
      3385 9709 3384 9703 3388 9699 3395 9698
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 222DEG 33KT 3355 9714

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
119 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ102-103-118-101900-
WISE TX-TARRANT TX-DENTON TX-
119 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WISE...WESTERN
DENTON AND NORTHWESTERN TARRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 118 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
EAGLE MOUNTAIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT WORTH...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...KELLER...
SOUTHLAKE...CORINTH...SAGINAW...HIGHLAND VILLAGE...AZLE...TROPHY
CLUB...LAKE DALLAS...EAGLE MOUNTAIN...BRIAR...ROANOKE...PECAN
ACRES...KRUM...ARGYLE...HICKORY CREEK AND JUSTIN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
 INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 468 AND 471.
 INTERSTATE 35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 61 AND 85.
 INTERSTATE 35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 451 AND 466.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3307 9695 3277 9755 3300 9755 3338 9731
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 232DEG 38KT 3293 9747

JLDUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
130 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ092-093-101915-
GRAYSON TX-COOKE TX-
130 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRAYSON AND NORTHEASTERN COOKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 129 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OVER LAKE KIOWA...OR NEAR WHITESBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...GAINESVILLE...WHITESBORO...POTTSBORO...
COLLINSVILLE...CALLISBURG...KNOLLWOOD...DORCHESTER...LAKE KIOWA...
EISENHOWER STATE PARK...SOUTHWESTERN LAKE TEXOMA...SOUTHMAYD...TIOGA
AND SADLER.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 NEAR MILE MARKER 503.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3387 9688 3387 9681 3382 9676 3384 9669
      3392 9666 3388 9659 3384 9662 3377 9650
      3376 9641 3346 9678 3342 9694 3374 9719
      3373 9709 3380 9710 3383 9705 3385 9709
      3384 9703 3387 9700 3395 9700 3396 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 229DEG 31KT 3360 9698

CAVANAUGH