Severe Thunderstorm Warning 387, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION
LAST NIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING......BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 534 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015/
MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ROUNDS. EXPECT HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING A BREAK FOR THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TO MID EVENING. BELIEVE THE SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE MAINLY SHOWERS
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A LOW THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.

HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW MIX FROM
7Z/1AM TO 10Z/4AM MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
INBOUND COLDER AIRCRAFT MAY ACCUMULATE ICE AND REQUIRE DEICING
OPERATIONS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY BE RANGE BOUND BETWEEN 800FT AND 1300FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 20G30KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
WHICH MAY START TO PRESENT CROSSWIND CONCERNS ON NORTH-SOUTH
RUNWAYS BY MONDAY MORNING.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 571 FOR
ANDERSON AND LEON COUNTIES. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 9 AM EXTENDED
FROM ATHENS TO HEARNE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AROUND
MIDDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...SUBMERSING
ALL OF OUR CWA IN THE COLD AND LESS UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE WILL STILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN AS IS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL THEN SHIFT TO WINTER WEATHER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR WEST AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION. A TRANSITION TO SNOW COULD OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH
AND EAST AS THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE METROPLEX. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS UPSTREAM AND THE MOST RECENT MODEL DATA AS THE DAY WEARS
ON.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015/
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW...NOW OVER THE TRANS-PECOS...WILL CONTINUE
APPROACHING TODAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO SLEET
AND SNOW. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ON
MONDAY...AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE NEW YEAR.

THE COLD FRONT THAT INVADED NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY HAS MADE
LITTLE ADDITIONAL PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE LOW...NOW IN
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT ITS PROGRESS TODAY.
BUT AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT WILL FINALLY ALLOW THE FRONT TO EXIT
OUT EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A VAST
CONTRAST WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. DESPITE THE WINTRY WIND CHILLS...
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY...
WITH TREMENDOUS MID-LEVEL FORCING STILL UPSTREAM. THE TRAINING
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE CWA...OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES REMAIN IN
THE 70S WITH UNSEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...IN PARTICULAR...THOSE AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CAMERON...TO CORSICANA...TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS. WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...MLCAPE VALUES WILL SOAR ABOVE
1000J/KG. WITH 850MB WINDS NEAR 50KTS AND STORM MOTION FAVORING
TRAINING ECHOES PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...PROLONGED POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT
IN THESE AREAS.

THE COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...BUT THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN
850 AND 700MB. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR IS LIFTING AND WILL COOL...IT
SHOULD RESULT IN A WARM NOSE THAT MAY INITIALLY PRECLUDE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW. HOWEVER...THE SUB-FREEZING LAYER BELOW THE
FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO ALLOW SLEET TO
REACH THE SURFACE WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA THIS
EVENING. EVENTUALLY...AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
AROUND MIDNIGHT...A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOULD STILL OCCUR. THE
DURATION OF SLEET WOULD LIMIT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS...BUT EVEN IF
THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS EARLIER...STORM TOTALS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW 4 INCHES. ALTHOUGH RECENT WARMTH MAY INITIALLY
MITIGATE SOME OF THE IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
MONDAY MORNING WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA. ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON
MAIN ROAD SURFACES WILL OCCUR...AND THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS
WILL MAKE NAVIGATING SLICK ROADS MORE DIFFICULT. IN ADDITION...
BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH THE VISIBILITY. EVEN WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND... THE SUN WILL RETURN MONDAY AND HELP TO MELT MUCH OF WHAT
FALLS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA...AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR...
SNOW MAY INITIALLY MIX WITH THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH A
TRANSITION TO FLURRIES MONDAY MORNING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
POPULATION CENTERS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING...AND THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. IN
ADDITION...STRONG DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE  GROWTH ZONE WILL
BEGIN SHUTTING OFF THE PRECIP PROCESS. AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20
WILL BE PRECIP-FREE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING...WITH A QUICK EXIT
TO THE RAIN AND SNOW IN AREAS NORTH OF I-20 BEFORE MIDDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD NEW YEARS EVE. NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MEANING THE
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  46  35  41  30  50 / 100  80  20   5   5
WACO, TX              49  34  45  29  54 / 100  50  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             64  38  43  28  49 / 100  90  50   5   5
DENTON, TX            44  34  39  25  48 / 100  80  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          48  35  40  27  49 / 100  80  30   5   5
DALLAS, TX            48  35  43  31  51 / 100  80  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           54  36  43  29  51 / 100  80  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  35  45  32  53 / 100  70  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            50  33  46  30  56 /  90  50   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     41  30  40  23  49 / 100  80  20   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-102>107-
117>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129-130-141.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1239 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EMORY                   32.87N  95.75W
12/27/2015                   RAINS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS RAINS CO. WITH
            SEVERAL FM AND COUNTY ROADS UNDERWATER. SEVERAL STREETS
            WERE CLOSED IN THE CITY OF EMORY DUE TO FLOODWATERS.

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