Flash Flood Warning 239, NWS Fort Worth, TX

446 
WGUS74 KFWD 270522
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1122 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

TXC097-181-270531-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FF.W.0239.000000T0000Z-151227T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAYSON TX-COOKE TX-
1122 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR GRAYSON AND EASTERN COOKE COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 PM CST...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE MORNING...SO ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NECESSARY.

LAT...LON 3396 9691 3387 9689 3386 9678 3382 9676
      3384 9669 3392 9666 3389 9658 3385 9663
      3377 9642 3371 9638 3340 9639 3343 9730
      3372 9715 3373 9709 3380 9710 3382 9705
      3385 9708 3384 9703 3389 9698 3395 9699

$$

AJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
711 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES THROUGH 10 PM. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED EAST OF A K0F2
/BOWIE/ TO KRPH /GRAHAM/ TO KCOM /COLEMAN/ LINE AT 00Z WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES 0100-0200Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS BY 04Z. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY 15Z SUNDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND FOG.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015/

WITH A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DISCUSSION FOCUSED ON THE MAIN
THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING: THE 18Z FWD RAOB INDICATED OVER
2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE INHIBITING CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THE 18 UTC FWD RAOB NUMBERS RANK
HIGHLY IN THE PARAMETER SPACE SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
ACCORDING TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTERS SEVERE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THINK THAT SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE ONLY
MISSING INGREDIENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER OR TORNADO OUTBREAK IS STRONG LIFT OVER THE REGION. LIFT
IS GENERALLY WEAK AND LACKS FOCUS...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT IS
UNCAPPED. EVEN WEAK LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SEVERE
STORM/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM FOR ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A RESULT. ASSUMING SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...SIGNIFICANT TO VIOLENT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AFTER SEVERAL HOURS
OF COOLING...THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT.

OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY: THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE TORNADO
THREAT MAY DIMINISH A BIT...BUT WILL NOT LIKELY BECOME ZERO AT ANY
POINT SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT WITH NEAR 70 DEW POINTS IN PLACE. THE
SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL LARGELY DETERMINE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR SUNDAY. IF THE FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE CWA...THE
THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT
AGAIN...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF WHEREVER THE FRONT STALLS. IF THE
FRONT STALLS IN THE CWA...IT IS MOST LIKELY TO STALL OUT NEAR A
PARIS TO DALLAS TO TEMPLE LINE.

FLASH FLOODING THREAT: THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE GREATEST ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF IT
STALLS OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY THE MOST
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THE REGION. WITH SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
AND THE TRINITY RIVER BASIN ALREADY STARTING OUT ABOVE
NORMAL...THERE IS NOT MUCH STORAGE CAPACITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND RUNOFF. WITH 3-6 INCHES (AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS)
EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING ALL ALONG THE
TRINITY IS LIKELY AS WELL. THE PRIMARY FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS
LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AGAIN...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION: THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM
THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS AN INCREDIBLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM
SPORTING OVER 120 KTS OF WIND AT THE 500 MB LEVEL AND WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -36 DEG C AT THE 500 MB LEVEL. THE COLD AIR
ALREADY WRAPPED UP IN THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE INCREDIBLY
ANOMALOUS SPRING TIME WARMTH AND MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION SUPPORTS A SYSTEM WITH HIGH END POTENTIAL TO DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR
CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE BAROCLINICITY PROGGED BY
MODELS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MEANS THAT THIS IS THE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS. AS IT STANDS NOW...LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WINTER STORM
WATCH...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO CISCO...ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY AT THIS TIME FOR THESE AREAS. EVEN THOUGH
THIS IS TECHNICALLY BELOW WINTER STORM WARNING/WATCH CRITERIA...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...AND HOW MUCH IT DEEPENS ONCE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN IF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS ALL THAT
FALLS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AT 25 KTS GUSTING TO 35
KTS...MEANING THERE WILL BE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT TRAVEL ACROSS
THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA. WILL NOT CHANGE THE AREAL OR TEMPORAL
COVERAGE OF THE WATCH FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS AND CHANGES IN THE
WATCH COVERAGE AREA IN LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER MONDAY...MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  54  58  33  42  31 / 100 100  80  20   5
WACO, TX              62  62  32  45  30 /  80  90  50  10   5
PARIS, TX             61  66  36  43  30 / 100 100  90  30   5
DENTON, TX            49  50  32  40  27 / 100 100  80  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  57  33  41  29 / 100 100  80  20   5
DALLAS, TX            56  60  33  43  32 / 100 100  80  20   5
TERRELL, TX           61  64  34  43  30 /  90 100  80  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         65  66  33  45  33 /  80 100  70  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            61  61  31  47  31 /  80  90  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  44  29  39  26 /  90 100  80  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129.

&&

58/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
320 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL.

HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN SOME AREAS AS WELL. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO KILLEEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD BE NEAR A LINE FROM BONHAM TO TERRELL TO KILLEN AT
DAYBREAK. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN SOME AREAS AS WELL. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO KILLEEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO MINERAL WELLS
TO GAINESVILLE LINE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COUNTIES OF
EASTLAND...JACK...STEPHENS...PALO PINTO...YOUNG AND MONTAGUE
WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS BONHAM TO DALLAS
TO HILLSBORO TO LAMPASAS. GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS DUE TO TEMPERATURES
STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
708 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE ROWLETT            32.88N  96.55W
12/26/2015                   DALLAS             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            NUMEROUS POWER LINES DOWN, TREES DOWN, BUILDING DAMAGE
            AND ROOFS MISSING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             3 N GRANBURY            32.49N  97.80W
12/26/2015  E0.75 INCH       HOOD               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
731 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COPEVILLE               33.08N  96.42W
12/26/2015                   COLLIN             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEOPLE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH COLLAPSED BUILDING NEAR FM546
            AND HWY 78. SEVERAL BUILDINGS DAMAGED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
746 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEVADA                  33.03N  96.38W
12/26/2015                   COLLIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            HWY 78 NEAR FM 1778 GAS STATION DESTROYED. WELDING SHOP
            NEXT DOOR DAMAGED. 6-8 INCH TREE LIMBS ON ROAD.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
800 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DALLAS                  32.77N  96.78W
12/26/2015                   DALLAS             TX   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING ONGOING IN DALLAS
            CO---NOTABLY NEAR MOCKINGBIRD LANE AND HERB KELLEHER
            WAY...LEMMON AVE AND UNIVERSITY BLVD. AND HILLCREST AND
            ROYAL LN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
918 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VALLEY VIEW             33.48N  97.17W
12/26/2015                   COOKE              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CAR TRAPPED IN HIGH WATER IN VALLEY VIEW