Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTERACTS WITH
NUMEROUS MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AS WELL AS
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WE EXPECT STORM
CHANCES TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES. AGAIN SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WE WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND BRING
AN END TO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY
AND ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED
TO FLATTEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE RAIN CHANCES NEXT SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL STILL HAVE TO BE CONCERNED WITH FLOODING
THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO SATURATED CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 106 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/
THE LARGEST IMPACT TO AVIATION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 6 T0
10 HOURS. WE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES AND EVEN AN APPROACHING DRY LINE
AND COLD FRONT. OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL
BE FROM 18Z UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. STORMS MAY START A BIT LATER IN WACO
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

THE DRY LINE WILL ENTER INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
WITH ALL PRECIPITATION ENDING AT THE TAF SITES BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY.

EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
AROUND 06Z BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
INCREASE UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE WIND SHIFT IN WACO SHOULD
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z MONDAY.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  79  56  73  59 /  70  20  20  40  50
WACO, TX              65  82  57  72  60 /  80  40  60  60  50
PARIS, TX             63  78  56  73  59 /  80  30  10  30  40
DENTON, TX            58  79  54  74  59 /  70  20  10  40  50
MCKINNEY, TX          59  78  56  74  59 /  80  20  10  40  50
DALLAS, TX            62  80  57  73  59 /  80  20  20  40  50
TERRELL, TX           64  80  58  74  60 /  80  40  20  40  50
CORSICANA, TX         65  83  59  73  61 /  80  40  40  40  50
TEMPLE, TX            66  84  58  69  62 /  80  60  60  60  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  78  56  72  59 /  50  20  20  40  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>121-129>134-141-143>145.

&&

79/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
439 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     TORNADO          3 SW CRANFILLS GAP      31.74N  97.87W
05/10/2015                   BOSQUE             TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF A BRIEF TORNADO BETWEEN CRANFILLS GAP
            AND JONESBORO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
442 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TORNADO          6 E DENISON             33.75N  96.45W
05/10/2015                   GRAYSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWERLINES DOWN AND TREES SNAPPED NEAR CARPENTER'S BLUFF
            ON S BANK OF RED RIVER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
457 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ091-092-102245-
MONTAGUE TX-COOKE TX-
457 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTAGUE AND NORTHWESTERN COOKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 456 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ST. JO...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NOCONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOWIE...NOCONA...MUENSTER...ST. JO...FORESTBURG AND SUNSET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
AREAS OF FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3390 9758 3390 9755 3392 9751 3391 9746
      3389 9745 3384 9746 3382 9743 3382 9737
      3388 9733 3386 9733 3389 9731 3387 9728
      3386 9726 3343 9748 3344 9797 3394 9760
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 202DEG 25KT 3364 9755

JLDUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
509 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             MERIDIAN                31.92N  97.65W
05/10/2015  E1.00 INCH       BOSQUE             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN MERIDIAN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 E CRANFILLS GAP       31.77N  97.68W
05/10/2015                   BOSQUE             TX   PUBLIC

            TREE DAMAGE BETWEEN CLIFTON AND CRANFILLS GAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
519 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VALLEY VIEW             33.48N  97.17W
05/10/2015                   COOKE              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAJOR FLOODING IN PIONEER VALLEY COMMUNITY WITH WATER
            INUNDATING MOBILE HOMES.