River Flood Warning 72, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTERACTS WITH
NUMEROUS MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AS WELL AS
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WE EXPECT STORM
CHANCES TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES. AGAIN SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WE WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND BRING
AN END TO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY
AND ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED
TO FLATTEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE RAIN CHANCES NEXT SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL STILL HAVE TO BE CONCERNED WITH FLOODING
THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO SATURATED CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 106 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/
THE LARGEST IMPACT TO AVIATION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 6 T0
10 HOURS. WE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES AND EVEN AN APPROACHING DRY LINE
AND COLD FRONT. OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL
BE FROM 18Z UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. STORMS MAY START A BIT LATER IN WACO
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

THE DRY LINE WILL ENTER INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
WITH ALL PRECIPITATION ENDING AT THE TAF SITES BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY.

EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
AROUND 06Z BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
INCREASE UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE WIND SHIFT IN WACO SHOULD
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z MONDAY.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  79  56  73  59 /  70  20  20  40  50
WACO, TX              65  82  57  72  60 /  80  40  60  60  50
PARIS, TX             63  78  56  73  59 /  80  30  10  30  40
DENTON, TX            58  79  54  74  59 /  70  20  10  40  50
MCKINNEY, TX          59  78  56  74  59 /  80  20  10  40  50
DALLAS, TX            62  80  57  73  59 /  80  20  20  40  50
TERRELL, TX           64  80  58  74  60 /  80  40  20  40  50
CORSICANA, TX         65  83  59  73  61 /  80  40  40  40  50
TEMPLE, TX            66  84  58  69  62 /  80  60  60  60  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  78  56  72  59 /  50  20  20  40  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>121-129>134-141-143>145.

&&

79/79

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