Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

YET ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY AND CHALLENGES WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
TIMING INTO ALL TERMINALS...AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW FINALLY
SHOWS SIGNS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD
FRONT WAS SEEN MOVING INTO THE KABI/KSPS AREAS ATTM. LINEAR
FORCING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MOST HIGH RES
MODELS PROGRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF I-35 BY
MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NAM WHICH HOLDS
SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED ACTIVITY BACK W/SW OF WACO OVERNIGHT. WE
WILL TIME CONVECTION THROUGH ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE BY
MIDNIGHT AT DFW TERMINALS SHIFTING WINDS LIGHT W/SW LESS THAN 10
KTS...WHILE BEING DELAYED 3-4 HOURS AT WACO. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WINDS WILL BE S/SE 10-15 KTS. THE FROPA WILL GENERALLY
OCCUR BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AT ALL TERMINALS WITH WINDS BECOMING NW
NEAR 10 KTS...THOUGH IT MAY OCCUR SOONER ACROSS THE DFW AREA.
WE/LL MONITOR FROPA TRENDS CLOSELY FOR CONVERSION TO N FLOW.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR THROUGH 05Z-06Z...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. MAIN CHALLENGE
WILL BE IF SKIES CLEAR MORE THAN EXPECTED AROUND AND AFTER FROPA
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. WITH STANDING WATER AND A LOT OF
WET SOIL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR FORMATION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON CLEARING AND WIND SPEEDS BY 12Z
MONDAY AND WE HOPE TO HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS LEADING UP
TO THE 06Z AND 12Z TAF SETS.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTERACTS WITH
NUMEROUS MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AS WELL AS
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WE EXPECT STORM
CHANCES TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES. AGAIN SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WE WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND BRING
AN END TO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY
AND ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED
TO FLATTEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE RAIN CHANCES NEXT SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL STILL HAVE TO BE CONCERNED WITH FLOODING
THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO SATURATED CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  79  56  73  59 /  70  20  20  40  50
WACO, TX              65  82  57  72  60 /  80  40  60  60  50
PARIS, TX             63  78  56  73  59 /  80  30  10  30  40
DENTON, TX            58  79  54  74  59 /  70  20  10  40  50
MCKINNEY, TX          59  78  56  74  59 /  80  20  10  40  50
DALLAS, TX            62  80  57  73  59 /  80  20  20  40  50
TERRELL, TX           64  80  58  74  60 /  80  40  20  40  50
CORSICANA, TX         65  83  59  73  61 /  80  40  40  40  50
TEMPLE, TX            66  84  58  69  62 /  80  60  60  60  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  78  56  72  59 /  50  20  20  40  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>121-129>134-141-143>145.

&&

05/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
833 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     HAIL             BARRY                   32.10N  96.63W
05/10/2015  E1.75 INCH       NAVARRO            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED SOUTH OF BARRY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
836 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ENNIS                   32.33N  96.63W
05/10/2015                   ELLIS              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN ENNIS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
837 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ122-123-110215-
RAINS TX-VAN ZANDT TX-
837 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VAN ZANDT AND
SOUTHEASTERN RAINS COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 836 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
EDOM...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CANTON...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAND SALINE...VAN...FRUITVALE AND EDOM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 529 AND 542.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3235 9558 3236 9581 3276 9581 3275 9564
      3272 9564 3269 9560 3248 9560 3246 9556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 185DEG 21KT 3242 9570

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
853 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WEST                    31.80N  97.10W
05/10/2015                   MCLENNAN           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NORTHBOUND RAMP TO INTERSTATE 35 AT FM 1858 CLOSED DUE
            TO HIGH WATER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
858 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DAWSON                  31.88N  96.72W
05/10/2015                   NAVARRO            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN DAWSON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
904 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ105>107-123-110245-
HUNT TX-HOPKINS TX-RAINS TX-DELTA TX-
904 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HOPKINS...EASTERN HUNT...DELTA
AND RAINS COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 904 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
EMORY...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...COMMERCE...COOPER...EMORY...EAST TAWAKONI...
CUMBY...COMO...CAMPBELL...COOPER LAKE PARK SOUTH SULPHUR...COOPER
LAKE PARK DOCTORS CREEK...POINT...LONE OAK...TIRA AND PECAN GAP.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 104 AND 142.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3296 9531 3296 9566 3285 9565 3285 9600
      3286 9600 3339 9591 3340 9591 3341 9586
      3345 9586 3345 9553 3344 9550 3345 9549
      3339 9538 3338 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 180DEG 33KT 3295 9575

30