Flash Flood Warning 200, NWS Fort Worth, TX

119 
WGUS74 KFWD 241429
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
929 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXC161-293-241630-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0200.000000T0000Z-151024T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LIMESTONE TX-FREESTONE TX-
929 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT FOR
LIMESTONE AND FREESTONE COUNTIES...

AT 920 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A 
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS RESULTED IN WATER OVER 
NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS ACROSS FREESTONE COUNTY. SEVERAL OF THESE 
COUNTY ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO FLOODWATERS. IN ADDITION...SMALL 
PORTIONS OF COUNTY ROAD 540 AND COUNTY ROAD 210 HAVE BEEN WASHED 
AWAY DUE TO SWIFTLY FLOWING FLOOD WATERS BETWEEN FAIRFIELD AND 
STREEMAN. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN AND AN 
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 
 
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MEXIA...GROESBECK...TEAGUE...FAIRFIELD...MART...WORTHAM...COOLIDGE...
FAIRFIELD LAKE STATE PARK...FORT PARKER STATE PARK...THORNTON...
OAKWOOD...KOSSE...TEHUACANA...STREETMAN AND KIRVIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY OR BE SWEPT AWAY. RIVER BANKS AND CULVERTS CAN BECOME
UNSTABLE AND UNSAFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 9579 3122 9660 3171 9693 3181 9672
      3180 9650 3201 9605 3198 9606 3196 9606
      3196 9602 3191 9600 3188 9603 3187 9597
      3184 9600 3179 9598 3175 9588 3169 9587
      3170 9583 3167 9581 3169 9578

$$

15-BAIN

345 
WGUS54 KFWD 241616
FFWFWD
TXC161-293-241930-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FF.W.0200.000000T0000Z-151024T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1116 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  LIMESTONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
  FREESTONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT
    
* AT 1113 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT NUMEROUS 
  COUNTY ROADS WERE STILL COVERED WITH WATER DUE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM 
  EARLIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN 
  MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  MEXIA...GROESBECK...TEAGUE...FAIRFIELD...MART...WORTHAM...
  COOLIDGE...FAIRFIELD LAKE STATE PARK...FORT PARKER STATE PARK...
  THORNTON...OAKWOOD...KOSSE...TEHUACANA...STREETMAN AND KIRVIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY OR BE SWEPT AWAY. RIVER BANKS AND CULVERTS CAN BECOME
UNSTABLE AND UNSAFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 9579 3122 9660 3171 9693 3181 9672
      3180 9650 3201 9605 3198 9606 3196 9606
      3196 9602 3191 9600 3188 9603 3187 9597
      3184 9600 3179 9598 3175 9588 3169 9587
      3170 9583 3167 9581 3169 9578

$$

15-BAIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
748 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS MORNING.

CIGS WERE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR EARLY THIS MORNING
AROUND THE DFW AREA. OPTED TO GO WITH SCATTERED IFR CLOUDS AND
BROKEN MVFR TO NOT BE OVERLY RESTRICTIVE WITH THE IFR CIGS COMING
AND GOING EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY AMEND TO GO SOLID IFR IF IT
LOOKS LIKE 800 FT CIGS ARE GOING TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW HOURS.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS MORNING AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. WINDS HAD ALREADY SHIFTED TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH PUSHED EAST
ACROSS THE DFW AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...CAUSING WINDS TO
VEER AROUND A BIT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS...SO THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE LARGE
IMPACTS ON OPERATIONS BY ITSELF.

PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS
FRONT...HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE HIT AND MISS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF THE DFW AREA.
WENT AHEAD WITH PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE DFW AREA UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WENT AHEAD WITH VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
ANTICIPATED BREAK IN THE SOLID COVERAGE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
WACO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL ALL DAY TODAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO OUR THINKING OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NEAR
KILLEEN NORTHEAST TO CORSICANA. LATEST PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES
INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES ARE AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR
MAINLY WITH THE CONVECTION ACROSS BELL AND FALLS COUNTIES.
THE CONVECTION IS SLOWING DOWN A BIT IN THESE AREAS SO THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH...IN THE AREAS THAT SAW ANYWHERE FROM 12 TO 20
INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...RAINFALL RATES HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 1/2 INCH PER HOUR. THE GROUNDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH TEXAS ARE COMPLETELY SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL ALMOST COMPLETELY RUN OFF. ANY HEAVIER BANDS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

CONCERNING THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ABILENE TO WICHITA FALLS TO ARDMORE AND
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS SOME
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND SOME LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTH. THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX IN THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREA AND NORTHEAST OF THERE
TOWARD CORSICANA THROUGH MID MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
PATRICIA CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. THIS FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM THE DFW METROPLEX
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. LATER THIS MORNING...A SURFACE LOW
WILL START TO DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND TRACK ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BEGIN TO CUT OFF THE FETCH OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND THE PRECIPITATION AREA
SHOULD CONTRACT TOWARD THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TODAY. OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STILL SHOW ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FROM THE METROPLEX NORTH AND WEST. WE WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL GENERALLY BE LOW ACROSS OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS WE START TO SEE A GENERAL TAPERING OF THE
RAIN LATER TODAY...WE WILL LIKELY TRIM PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. WE
SHOULD GET A FEW DAYS OF DRYING OUT AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A MID
WEEK TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH DRY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO GUIDANCE
ARE NOW INDICATING ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO HALLOWEEN.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  59  67  57  71 / 100  60  30  10  10
WACO, TX              73  60  67  58  71 / 100  80  40  10  10
PARIS, TX             71  59  67  56  70 / 100  60  50  20  20
DENTON, TX            67  57  66  54  71 / 100  50  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          69  58  67  56  70 / 100  60  30  10  10
DALLAS, TX            71  59  67  58  71 / 100  60  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           72  60  67  57  70 / 100  70  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  62  68  58  71 / 100  80  50  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  61  67  59  71 / 100  80  30  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  55  66  53  72 /  90  50  20   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
741 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
741 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. WHILE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE A THREAT...THE BIGGEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WHICH LEADS TO FLOODING.

THE AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING TODAY ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KILLEEN TO WACO TO CENTERVILLE. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY. FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE ALREADY FLOODING...EVEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FROM CORSICANA THROUGH
HILLSBORO WHERE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL EXCEEDED 16 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO CENTRAL TEXAS...PRIMARILY ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PALESTINE TO TEMPLE. AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS PRIMARILY REMAINING UNDER 1 INCH FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH NORTH TEXAS PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH
MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...REPORT
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
808 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW KERENS             32.16N  96.27W
10/24/2015  M16.11 INCH      NAVARRO            TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MEASURED STORM TOTAL (SO FAR) RAINFALL BY A COCORAHS
            OBSERVER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
812 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW POWELL             32.11N  96.34W
10/24/2015  M20.15 INCH      NAVARRO            TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MEASURED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL VIA COCORAHS OBSERVER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
826 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 AM     FLOOD            KEMPNER                 31.08N  98.00W
10/24/2015                   LAMPASAS           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR FLOODING ACROSS HWY 190 NEAR KEMPNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
828 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ELM MOTT                31.67N  97.10W
10/24/2015                   MCLENNAN           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER RESCUES NEAR ELM MOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
829 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MERIDIAN                31.92N  97.65W
10/24/2015                   BOSQUE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS LOW WATER CROSSINGS ACROSS BOSQUE COUNTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
831 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MALONE                  31.92N  96.90W
10/24/2015                   HILL               TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            WATER COVERING A COUPLE OF FARM TO MARKET ROADS IN HILL
            COUNTY