Flash Flood Warning 193, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
409 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO OUR THINKING OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NEAR
KILLEEN NORTHEAST TO CORSICANA. LATEST PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES
INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES ARE AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR
MAINLY WITH THE CONVECTION ACROSS BELL AND FALLS COUNTIES.
THE CONVECTION IS SLOWING DOWN A BIT IN THESE AREAS SO THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH...IN THE AREAS THAT SAW ANYWHERE FROM 12 TO 20
INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...RAINFALL RATES HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 1/2 INCH PER HOUR. THE GROUNDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH TEXAS ARE COMPLETELY SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL ALMOST COMPLETELY RUN OFF. ANY HEAVIER BANDS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

CONCERNING THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ABILENE TO WICHITA FALLS TO ARDMORE AND
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS SOME
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND SOME LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTH. THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX IN THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREA AND NORTHEAST OF THERE
TOWARD CORSICANA THROUGH MID MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
PATRICIA CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. THIS FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM THE DFW METROPLEX
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. LATER THIS MORNING...A SURFACE LOW
WILL START TO DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND TRACK ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BEGIN TO CUT OFF THE FETCH OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND THE PRECIPITATION AREA
SHOULD CONTRACT TOWARD THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TODAY. OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STILL SHOW ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FROM THE METROPLEX NORTH AND WEST. WE WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL GENERALLY BE LOW ACROSS OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS WE START TO SEE A GENERAL TAPERING OF THE
RAIN LATER TODAY...WE WILL LIKELY TRIM PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. WE
SHOULD GET A FEW DAYS OF DRYING OUT AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A MID
WEEK TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH DRY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO GUIDANCE
ARE NOW INDICATING ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO HALLOWEEN.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS.

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR TO MVFR WILL THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

78.JG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  59  67  57  71 / 100  60  30  10  10
WACO, TX              73  60  67  58  71 / 100  80  40  10  10
PARIS, TX             71  59  67  56  70 / 100  60  50  20  20
DENTON, TX            67  57  66  54  71 / 100  50  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          69  58  67  56  70 / 100  60  30  10  10
DALLAS, TX            71  59  67  58  71 / 100  60  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           72  60  67  57  70 / 100  70  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  62  68  58  71 / 100  80  50  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  61  67  59  71 / 100  80  30  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  55  66  53  72 /  90  50  20   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
334 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG AND A
HUNDRED MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE...TO
WAXAHACHIE...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RUN OFF AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS... SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY NIGHT. LINGERING HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 ON SUNDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO SATURATED
SOILS...RUN OFF WILL OCCUR QUICKLY AND PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING
WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...REPORT
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1050 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 PM     FLASH FLOOD      12 SSE CORSICANA        31.94N  96.39W
10/23/2015                   NAVARRO            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SWIFT WATER RESCUES ON I-45 AT MILE MARKERS 218 AND 225.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1248 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ161-240615-
LIMESTONE-
1248 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LIMESTONE COUNTY...

AT 1245 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MEXIA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.  THESE WINDS
COULD DOWN SOME SMALL TREES AND POWER POLES DUE TO SATURATED GROUND
IN THE AREA.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEXIA...GROESBECK...COOLIDGE...FORT PARKER STATE PARK AND TEHUACANA.

LAT...LON 3155 9633 3150 9659 3155 9676 3171 9692
      3181 9668 3180 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 0545Z 239DEG 15KT 3172 9653

79