Flash Flood Warning 187, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS.

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO IFR WILL THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MID MORNING SATURDAY.

78.JG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/
3 TO OVER 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS SINCE 7 AM THURSDAY. THE MIDDLE SULPHUR RIVER NEAR
COMMERCE GAUGE /MSCT2/ IN HUNT COUNTY HAS RECORDED 10.13 INCHES OF
RAIN DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 130 PM CDT.

FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 12Z KFWD SOUNDING
WERE PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. THERE ARE SEVERAL INGREDIENTS
THAT CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GOOD SET UP FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING/FLASH
FLOODING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM HURRICANE PATRICIA THAT WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
MANZANILLO LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ARIZONA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL ALSO
ENHANCE LIFT.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...AREAS FROM SHERMAN TO FORT WORTH TO
BRECKENRIDGE NORTHWESTWARD WERE RECEIVING A BREAK FROM THE RAIN
BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST INTO THAT REGION BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES
EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF I-20.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS
COAST AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  71  59  69  57 / 100 100  60  40  20
WACO, TX              69  74  61  70  58 / 100 100  80  40  20
PARIS, TX             67  72  59  70  56 / 100  90  70  60  30
DENTON, TX            67  69  57  68  54 / 100 100  60  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          68  70  58  69  56 / 100 100  60  40  20
DALLAS, TX            68  72  60  69  59 / 100 100  60  40  20
TERRELL, TX           68  73  60  70  57 / 100 100  70  50  30
CORSICANA, TX         68  76  62  71  59 /  90 100  80  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  74  61  70  59 /  90 100  80  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  69  55  68  53 / 100 100  50  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

78

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
334 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG AND A
HUNDRED MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE...TO
WAXAHACHIE...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RUN OFF AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS... SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY NIGHT. LINGERING HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 ON SUNDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO SATURATED
SOILS...RUN OFF WILL OCCUR QUICKLY AND PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING
WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...REPORT
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNW PLANO             33.06N  96.74W
10/23/2015  M4.25 INCH       COLLIN             TX   PUBLIC

            MEASURED SINCE THE RAIN BEGAN THURSDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
844 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MERIDIAN                31.92N  97.65W
10/23/2015  E6.30 INCH       BOSQUE             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MEASURED SINCE THE RAIN BEGAN THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
850 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S WALNUT SPRINGS      32.04N  97.75W
10/23/2015  M7.60 INCH       BOSQUE             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MEASURED SINCE THE RAIN BEGAN THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
917 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     FLOOD            CLIFTON                 31.78N  97.58W
10/23/2015                   BOSQUE             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SH 6 AND FM 219 FLOODED IN THE CITY OF CLIFTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1050 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 PM     FLASH FLOOD      12 SSE CORSICANA        31.94N  96.39W
10/23/2015                   NAVARRO            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SWIFT WATER RESCUES ON I-45 AT MILE MARKERS 218 AND 225.