Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
950 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.UPDATE...
UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP
KEEP SOME CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE FAVORED AREA
ACROSS FAR NORTH GA. HAVE RAISED POPS FROM ATLANTA TO ATHENS NORTH
FOR A FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR.

41

.PREVIOUS
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR A LA GRANGE TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE...WHERE DEWPOINTS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...
AND MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF REGION AND PROVIDING
AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
THIS WESTERLY FLOW TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK WIND
SHEAR AND MODEST CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE SUGGEST
MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
THAT COULD SUPPORT STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF AFTERNOON STORMS CAN
GET STRONG ENOUGH

OTHERWISE... A MAV AND MET BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

16

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE EXTENDED FORECAST START OFF WITH
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES NW GA. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO N GA MONDAY
MORNING BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BUT DRIER AIR MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND IT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO STAY ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FRONT DOES STALL ACROSS NORTHERN FL
WED AND THU BEFORE MOVING EAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WITH
THIS FRONT STALLING IT DOES HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THU AND FRIDAY BUT SHOULD JUST SEE MAINLY
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 80S TO MID 90S THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

WITH AN UPPER SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THEY WILL AFFECT THE TAF
SITES. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST 5
TO 8KT AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  88  71  92 /  30  30  10  30
ATLANTA         72  88  73  89 /  30  30  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  83  66  83 /  40  30  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  88 /  30  30  10  20
COLUMBUS        75  91  74  93 /  30  20  10  30
GAINESVILLE     71  86  72  88 /  40  30  10  20
MACON           73  91  73  93 /  30  30  10  30
ROME            70  89  71  88 /  30  20  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  71  89  71  90 /  30  30  10  30
VIDALIA         74  91  73  94 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

GAZ046>049-230600-
MORGAN GA-NEWTON GA-ROCKDALE GA-WALTON GA-
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...
NORTHEASTERN NEWTON...NORTHEASTERN ROCKDALE AND WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL
200 AM EDT...

AT 129 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR GOOD HOPE TO GEORGIA INTERNATIONAL HORSE PARK...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
CONYERS...MONROE...COVINGTON...MADISON...LOGANVILLE...SOCIAL
CIRCLE...OXFORD...WALNUT GROVE...RUTLEDGE...NORTH HIGH SHOALS...
BOSTWICK...BETWEEN...GOOD HOPE...JERSEY...GEORGIA INTERNATIONAL HORSE
PARK...LAKEVIEW ESTATES...GRATIS...GUM CREEK...ALMON AND CAMPTON.

LAT...LON 3393 8380 3389 8376 3392 8368 3389 8363
      3388 8359 3385 8358 3380 8348 3373 8345
      3369 8340 3355 8349 3353 8368 3365 8410
      3372 8406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0529Z 295DEG 19KT 3382 8359 3368 8396

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
157 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

GAZ037-038-047>049-230630-
MORGAN GA-OGLETHORPE GA-OCONEE GA-NEWTON GA-WALTON GA-
157 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORGAN...WESTERN OGLETHORPE...
OCONEE...NORTHEASTERN NEWTON AND EASTERN WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM
EDT...

AT 157 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXTENDING FROM
NORTH HIGH SHOALS TO SOCIAL CIRCLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
MONROE...MADISON...WATKINSVILLE...SOCIAL CIRCLE...BOGART...
RUTLEDGE...NORTH HIGH SHOALS...BOSTWICK...GOOD HOPE...BISHOP...
JERSEY...ATHENS-CLARKE COUNTY (BALANCE)...BARNETT SHOALS...
FARMINGTON...EBENEZER...HARD LABOR CREEK STATE PARK...PANNELL...
APALACHEE...HERNDONVILLE AND EASTVILLE.

LAT...LON 3386 8321 3373 8332 3370 8340 3366 8337
      3348 8351 3369 8385 3395 8353 3393 8351
      3393 8342 3387 8336 3387 8333 3386 8333
      3385 8328 3388 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 286DEG 17KT 3383 8351 3367 8369