Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
950 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.UPDATE...
UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP
KEEP SOME CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE FAVORED AREA
ACROSS FAR NORTH GA. HAVE RAISED POPS FROM ATLANTA TO ATHENS NORTH
FOR A FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR.

41

.PREVIOUS
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR A LA GRANGE TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE...WHERE DEWPOINTS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...
AND MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF REGION AND PROVIDING
AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
THIS WESTERLY FLOW TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK WIND
SHEAR AND MODEST CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE SUGGEST
MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
THAT COULD SUPPORT STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF AFTERNOON STORMS CAN
GET STRONG ENOUGH

OTHERWISE... A MAV AND MET BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

16

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE EXTENDED FORECAST START OFF WITH
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES NW GA. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO N GA MONDAY
MORNING BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BUT DRIER AIR MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND IT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO STAY ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FRONT DOES STALL ACROSS NORTHERN FL
WED AND THU BEFORE MOVING EAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WITH
THIS FRONT STALLING IT DOES HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THU AND FRIDAY BUT SHOULD JUST SEE MAINLY
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 80S TO MID 90S THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

WITH AN UPPER SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THEY WILL AFFECT THE TAF
SITES. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST 5
TO 8KT AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  88  71  92 /  30  30  10  30
ATLANTA         72  88  73  89 /  30  30  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  83  66  83 /  40  30  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  88 /  30  30  10  20
COLUMBUS        75  91  74  93 /  30  20  10  30
GAINESVILLE     71  86  72  88 /  40  30  10  20
MACON           73  91  73  93 /  30  30  10  30
ROME            70  89  71  88 /  30  20  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  71  89  71  90 /  30  30  10  30
VIDALIA         74  91  73  94 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
600 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-230930-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
600 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TONIGHT...MAINLY THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE AT BEST
AND A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE
BRIEF FLOODING IN LOW-LYING...FLOOD-PRONE...AREAS. IN ADDITION...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1135 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

GAZ014>016-023-230415-
DAWSON GA-LUMPKIN GA-WHITE GA-HALL GA-
1135 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON...
SOUTHEASTERN LUMPKIN...SOUTHWESTERN WHITE AND NORTHERN HALL COUNTIES
UNTIL 1215 AM EDT...

AT 1133 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS SOUTH OF DAHLONEGA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE
           USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW-
           LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS
           SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF
           CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD
           REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
GAINESVILLE...DAHLONEGA...CLERMONT...AURARIA...MURRAYVILLE...GARLAND
AND WAR HILL PARK.

LAT...LON 3455 8374 3442 8370 3428 8392 3429 8393
      3429 8394 3430 8393 3430 8394 3432 8395
      3433 8395 3434 8399 3442 8408 3462 8392
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 228DEG 18KT 3440 8394

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1138 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

GAZ023-025-034-035-046-047-230415-
GWINNETT GA-ROCKDALE GA-BARROW GA-JACKSON GA-HALL GA-WALTON GA-
1138 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GWINNETT...NORTHEASTERN
ROCKDALE...BARROW...WESTERN JACKSON...SOUTHERN HALL AND WALTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM EDT...

AT 1137 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR
REST HAVEN TO NEAR DACULA TO WALNUT GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE
           USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW-
           LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS
           SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF
           CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD
           REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
WINDER...MONROE...BUFORD...LOGANVILLE...BRASELTON...AUBURN...
DACULA...SOCIAL CIRCLE...GRAYSON...HOSCHTON...WALNUT GROVE...
BETHLEHEM...BETWEEN...GOOD HOPE...CARL...JERSEY...GRATIS...CHATEAU
ELAN...CAMPTON AND EBENEZER.

LAT...LON 3421 8375 3392 8363 3391 8364 3389 8363
      3388 8361 3383 8359 3375 8360 3363 8365
      3370 8385 3374 8391 3374 8393 3375 8398
      3393 8393 3410 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 0337Z 270DEG 11KT 3409 8393 3392 8384 3376 8383

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1149 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

GAZ014-021-022-230430-
DAWSON GA-CHEROKEE GA-FORSYTH GA-
1149 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DAWSON...EASTERN
CHEROKEE AND NORTHWESTERN FORSYTH COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM EDT...

AT 1148 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BUFFINGTON...OR NEAR
CANTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
           LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE
           USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CANTON...CUMMING...FREE HOME...BUFFINGTON...DREW...LATHEMTOWN...
MATT...HOLBROOK...HIGHTOWER...UNION HILL AND DUCKTOWN.

LAT...LON 3436 8412 3417 8411 3419 8426 3419 8433
      3418 8434 3422 8447 3431 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 275DEG 12KT 3426 8439

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