Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
357 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA AHEAD OF A SURFACE
FRONT. WITH PLENTY OF HEAT AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
AREA SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE REACHED SEVERE LIMITS. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS
COULD LINGER TONIGHT IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW AS
THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS
ACROSS IN THIS VICINITY ONCE AGAIN DURING THE HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO FAR ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH IT WILL FEEL
QUITE MUGGY.

RW

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED. RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN BECOMES MORE DIURNAL FROM
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED
BELOW.

41

&&

LONG TERM /338 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 /... NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NOTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED... AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND WARRANTS REDUCED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE... STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL
POPS THROUGH END WEEK... THEN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY...
EXCEPT MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. A WEAK WIND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MAINLY UNORGANIZED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY... WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. HOWEVER... STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
AS A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY... THEN INCREASING HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ALL HELP PUSH DAYTIME
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S... RESULTING IN AT LEAST
2000-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE EACH DAY. ALL INTEREST WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS... ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND... ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE RADAR BEFORE VENTURING OUTDOORS DESPITE THE LOW RAIN
CHANCES.

39

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

PRIMARILY SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME PERHAPS
ENCROACHING ON THE AIRPORT. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL FROM
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.

CONFIDENCE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  88  69  89 /  30  30  20  40
ATLANTA         70  86  71  87 /  30  40  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     62  83  64  83 /  20  20  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    67  87  68  87 /  20  30  20  50
COLUMBUS        69  86  70  89 /  40  50  30  50
GAINESVILLE     68  85  69  86 /  20  20  20  50
MACON           68  88  69  90 /  40  40  30  50
ROME            67  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  68  86  69  87 /  30  50  30  50
VIDALIA         71  89  71  90 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...RW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1229 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101630-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1229 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY SAG INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND HELP HOLD CONVECTION TO
MAINLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING MAX
DAYTIME HEATING EACH DAY... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING
WIND...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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