Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY
THIS MORNING. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DECREASED AS EXPECTED WITH
THE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY...HOWEVER MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
HAS KEPT ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS GOING. THIS FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER
SUPPORT WEAKENS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE SWEEPS
EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
CANNOT RULE OUT LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ONLY
SLOWLY SPREADS A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS INTO NORTH
GEORGIA. THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST AS
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND INSTABILITY
REMAINS ONLY MODERATE. CONVECTION WANES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
BETTER CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES AND STALLS. FOR WEDNESDAY...BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDER REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STALLED AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT
AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY KEEP AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH.

20

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NOTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED... AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND WARRANTS
REDUCED OVER THE WEEKEND AND FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...
STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL POPS THROUGH END WEEK... THEN ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES IN
THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. A WEAK WIND
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MAINLY UNORGANIZED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY... WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER... STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM AS A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY... THEN
INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ALL HELP
PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S... RESULTING IN AT
LEAST 2000-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE EACH DAY. ALL INTEREST WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS... ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND... ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE RADAR BEFORE VENTURING OUTDOORS DESPITE THE LOW RAIN
CHANCES.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015/
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH 12Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER 12Z WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING MORE INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA AFTER 18Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 3-6KT THROUGH
14Z...INCREASING TO 6-10KT AFTER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  68  89  69 /  40  30  30  30
ATLANTA         85  70  87  72 /  40  30  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     84  64  86  64 /  30  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    86  67  88  68 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        86  70  90  71 /  50  40  50  30
GAINESVILLE     85  69  87  69 /  40  20  20  20
MACON           86  69  90  69 /  50  30  40  40
ROME            86  68  88  69 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  85  67  88  69 /  50  30  50  30
VIDALIA         89  72  91  71 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1253 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1253 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING...

...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA SOMETIME LATE THIS
MORNING... THEN SAG INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT... MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS MORNING... THEN THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME... A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG... EITHER
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING... OR ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND HELP HOLD CONVECTION TO
MAINLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING MAX
DAYTIME HEATING EACH DAY... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING
WIND...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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