Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
307 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
SHORT WAVE. CURRENT CONVECTION IS HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL DIMINISH
MOST AREAS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

RADAR INDICATING A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OVER TN/KY INTO NRN MS/AL. THIS AREA
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FAR NW 01-02Z AND MOVE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE AS THE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. HOWEVER THIS AREA IS
ALSO SHORT WAVE DRIVEN AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER
N GA INTO OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT STRUGGLES TO GET TOO FAR S AND NOT VERY FAST AND LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL GA AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
GREATEST POPS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL GA FOR TUESDAY WITH A DIEING AREA OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO START...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL GA...
AND THEN MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS TUESDAY GOES ON. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY NIGHT AND STILL FAVORING
CENTRAL GA.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

BDL

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NO SIGINIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM. OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS SIMILAR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR ESPECIALLY NORTH. POPS
HAVE BEEN REDUCED NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE END OF THE
PERIOD SO REDUCED POPS STILL LOOK OKAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

41

&&

LONG TERM /416 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CARVE OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON WEDNESDAY... WHERE IT LINGERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY FROM THE
EAST. THIS COULD BEGIN TO LESSON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. FOR NOW... STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE STATE THIS WEEKEND... AND
GREATLY REDUCING STORM CHANCES PROBABLY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND... EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE NORTH GA MOUNTAINS. STILL SEE A WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT... SO NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS EACH DAY AS MUCAPES CLIMB INTO THE 2000-2500 RANGE DURING
MAX HEATING. ALL INTEREST WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE FORECAST AND REGIONAL RADARS BEFORE VENTURING
OUTDOORS.  39

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH 3500-5000 FT CU SCT-BKN. POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS N GA THIS AFTERNOON.
A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER
THE AREA OVERNIGHT STARTING 01-02Z THROUGH ABOUT 12-14Z...
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH. SURFACE WINDS SSW NEAR 10 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS 15-20KTS...DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET...THEN BECOMING
WSW OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TO START EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  87  68  90 /  50  40  20  30
ATLANTA         71  85  70  86 /  60  40  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  81  61  83 /  70  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  84  67  88 /  60  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        71  86  70  87 /  50  50  50  50
GAINESVILLE     68  83  68  86 /  60  40  20  20
MACON           70  88  69  89 /  30  50  50  50
ROME            68  85  67  88 /  70  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  70  85  68  87 /  60  40  30  30
VIDALIA         72  90  72  89 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091945-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
345 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
MOST STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

ANY ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH... HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THIS THREAT IS MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
COMBINE TO SPARK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA... MAINLY BETWEEN 5 PM THIS EVENING AND 3
AM TONIGHT... AND MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A BUCHANAN TO
GAINESVILLE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA... AND SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION
TO MOSTLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND... EXCEPT POSSIBLY
IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED... AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DURING MAX HEATING EACH DAY... WITH THE THREATS BEING DAMAGING
WIND...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.