Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
306 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON POSITION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS
SETTING UP OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE NAM IS
JUST A LITTLE DRIER. WILL LEAN MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER AL/GA. THINKING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING DIMINISHING THE PRECIP SOMEWHAT...BUT THEN ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INCREASING THE
PRECIP...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND WEST GA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGH K INDEX VALUES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

17

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A MOIST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SCALE BACK RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEIGHBOR
CONSISTENCY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE POTENTIAL
TO AFFECT THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE TO CONTINUE
RATHER HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ALL
TAFS FEELING THE IMPACT OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING BUT INCREASE AGAIN AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS HAVE GONE VFR
BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASE TO MVFR BY 18Z
WED. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING AND BACK TO SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  79  65  83 /  90  80  80  70
ATLANTA         68  80  65  81 /  90  80  80  70
BLAIRSVILLE     65  76  60  79 /  90  80  80  70
CARTERSVILLE    67  81  65  81 /  90  80  80  70
COLUMBUS        69  82  66  84 /  70  80  80  70
GAINESVILLE     65  78  63  80 /  90  80  80  70
MACON           68  82  65  86 /  70  70  70  50
ROME            67  81  66  82 /  90  80  80  60
PEACHTREE CITY  66  79  65  82 /  90  80  80  70
VIDALIA         70  87  68  87 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1034 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-271445-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1034 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAIN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
AUGUSTA...AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 10 PM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
536 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GAZ016-023-024-262200-
WHITE GA-BANKS GA-HALL GA-
536 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN WHITE...
BANKS AND HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 536 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALTO...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLEVELAND...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS WHITE...BANKS AND HALL COUNTIES...INCLUDING
AREAS AROUND
BALDWIN...LULA...ALTO...CLERMONT...MOSSY CREEK...LEAF...SAUTEE AND
BATESVILLE.

RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS.  ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES
AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

LAT...LON 3473 8362 3472 8364 3469 8364 3465 8366
      3462 8364 3458 8364 3455 8362 3453 8363
      3451 8367 3443 8361 3449 8355 3449 8349
      3435 8362 3445 8385 3475 8363
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 214DEG 38KT 3452 8364