Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
306 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON POSITION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS
SETTING UP OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE NAM IS
JUST A LITTLE DRIER. WILL LEAN MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER AL/GA. THINKING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING DIMINISHING THE PRECIP SOMEWHAT...BUT THEN ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INCREASING THE
PRECIP...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND WEST GA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGH K INDEX VALUES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

17

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A MOIST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SCALE BACK RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEIGHBOR
CONSISTENCY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE POTENTIAL
TO AFFECT THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE TO CONTINUE
RATHER HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ALL
TAFS FEELING THE IMPACT OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING BUT INCREASE AGAIN AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS HAVE GONE VFR
BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASE TO MVFR BY 18Z
WED. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING AND BACK TO SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  79  65  83 /  90  80  80  70
ATLANTA         68  80  65  81 /  90  80  80  70
BLAIRSVILLE     65  76  60  79 /  90  80  80  70
CARTERSVILLE    67  81  65  81 /  90  80  80  70
COLUMBUS        69  82  66  84 /  70  80  80  70
GAINESVILLE     65  78  63  80 /  90  80  80  70
MACON           68  82  65  86 /  70  70  70  50
ROME            67  81  66  82 /  90  80  80  60
PEACHTREE CITY  66  79  65  82 /  90  80  80  70
VIDALIA         70  87  68  87 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1034 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-271445-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1034 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAIN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
AUGUSTA...AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 10 PM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GAZ014-015-262030-
DAWSON GA-LUMPKIN GA-
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN DAWSON AND
LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF DAWSONVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS DAWSON AND LUMPKIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
AREAS AROUND
DAHLONEGA...GOOCH MOUNTAIN SHELTER...PORTER SPRINGS...AMICALOLA FALLS
STATE PARK...CAMP MERRILL...TURNERS CORNER...MCKEE...BLACK GAP
SHELTER...LEN FOOTE HIKE INN...JUNO...NIMBLEWILL...FAUSETT LAKE AND
BLOOD MOUNTAIN SHELTER.

RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS.  ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES
AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

LAT...LON 3472 8386 3466 8388 3461 8387 3440 8424
      3442 8426 3447 8426 3447 8431 3449 8433
      3457 8435 3458 8433 3457 8426 3460 8425
      3462 8420 3460 8419 3466 8413 3464 8404
      3467 8403 3468 8399 3472 8398 3474 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 230DEG 27KT 3453 8424

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
405 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GAZ032-033-262030-
COBB GA-NORTH FULTON GA-
405 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN COBB AND
NORTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ROSWELL...OR 11 MILES EAST OF MARIETTA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS COBB AND NORTH FULTON COUNTIES...INCLUDING
AREAS AROUND
SANDY SPRINGS...ROSWELL...JOHNS CREEK...ALPHARETTA...DUNWOODY...
MILTON...BERKELEY LAKE...MOUNT BETHEL AND SWEAT MOUNTAIN.

RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS.  ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES
AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

LAT...LON 3411 8426 3410 8421 3406 8415 3405 8410
      3403 8412 3403 8417 3399 8419 3399 8420
      3400 8422 3400 8424 3396 8428 3397 8434
      3390 8435 3389 8438 3405 8450 3408 8446
      3407 8442 3410 8442 3419 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 238DEG 53KT 3402 8436