Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
136 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR MODELS AND SOUNDING INDICATE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL THEREFORE
RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH GA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TO ALLOW
UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS A RESULT A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE NEXT WAVE NEAR THE MS RIVER SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
US THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST FOR THAT TIME FRAME. ONLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WITH HEAVY RAIN THE GREATEST THREAT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY SEEMS TO
STALL ACROSS THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ALSO. QPF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM REMAINS AROUND 2.00
INCHES MORE OR LESS FOR THE NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS. NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING EXPECTED BUT THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN OR STREAM FLOODING.

41

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE POTENTIAL TO
AFFECT THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE TO CONTINUE RATHER
HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ALL
TAFS FEELING THE IMPACT OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING BUT INCREASE AGAIN AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS HAVE GONE VFR
BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASE TO MVFR BY 18Z
WED. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING AND BACK TO SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  67  81  66 /  70  80  80  80
ATLANTA         81  68  80  67 /  80  80  80  80
BLAIRSVILLE     76  63  76  62 /  80  80  80  80
CARTERSVILLE    80  66  81  66 /  80  80  80  80
COLUMBUS        85  69  84  68 /  80  70  80  80
GAINESVILLE     81  66  79  65 /  80  80  80  80
MACON           86  67  84  67 /  60  70  70  70
ROME            80  66  81  65 /  80  80  80  80
PEACHTREE CITY  83  66  81  65 /  80  80  80  80
VIDALIA         89  70  87  68 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1034 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-271445-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1034 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAIN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
AUGUSTA...AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 10 PM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
239 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GAZ058-071-261915-
BUTTS GA-MONROE GA-
239 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN BUTTS AND
MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 239 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF FORSYTH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS BUTTS AND MONROE COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS
AROUND
JACKSON...FORSYTH...FLOVILLA...WORTHVILLE...BLOUNT...STARK...
BERNER...INDIAN SPRINGS STATE PARK AND HIGH FALLS STATE PARK.

RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS.  ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES
AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

LAT...LON 3337 8400 3339 8397 3341 8398 3338 8386
      3334 8386 3333 8384 3327 8383 3325 8381
      3321 8383 3318 8382 3315 8382 3304 8392
      3310 8404 3320 8404 3320 8408
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 209DEG 14KT 3315 8398

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