Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
639 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH GEORGIA...
..STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH LAST EVENING AND MUCH UNCERTAINTY WAS PRESENT ON HOW THIS
WOULD AFFECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING. BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SURGING NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT...LOOKS LIKE THAT QUESTION HAS BEEN ANSWERED AS RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE LINE OVER EASTERN
ALABAMA. SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 100 J/KG HAS SURGED ALL THE WAY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH METRO AND SHOULD CONTINUE ITS
ADVANCEMENT NORTHWARD WHILE MUCAPE HAS MADE IT INTO
TENNESSEE...SUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL
AREAS OF GEORGIA THIS MORNING.

AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...BEST 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES HAVE BEEN ALONG
AND AHEAD OF WARM FRONT BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH LEFTOVER IN
DEVELOPING UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. 925MB
WIND CORE OF CLOSE TO 50 KTS IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN END OF LINE WHICH IS OF CONCERN AS WELL BASED ON THE
SETUP AND WOULD EXPECT FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF LINE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT ALSO THE
ENHANCED THREAT OF A QUICK SPINUP.

BEYOND THE INITIAL PUSH OF CONVECTION...SHOULD JUST SEE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. CLEARING SKIES BY TONIGHT AND A FAIR WX
PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

EXTENDED STARTS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHINESS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE BACK EDGE
OF THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A STRONG BUT DRY
COLD FRONT WITH IT AND USHERING IN A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS JUST PAST
MIDWEEK. DEEP LAYER CAA BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING
AND WE WILL START FEELING THE EFFECTS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRASTICALLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. EXPECT AN EXTREMELY COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH /SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS AND
LOWER 20S SOUTH/...AND HIGHS THURSDAY REALLY SUPER COLD AND MAYBE
NOT EVEN GETTING TO FREEZING FROM THE METRO AREA NORTH...AND
REMAINING BELOW 40 JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. ADD TO THIS SOME BLUSTERY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND IT IS
VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WARNING FOR
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN TEMPS FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

NEXT RAIN POTENTIAL COMES AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED WHEN OF COURSE
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH PRECIP PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
POPS WERE KEPT AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WILL
HAVE TO REFINE THIS OVER THE COMING DAYS TO FIGURE OUT TIMING OF
INCOMING PRECIP VS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

TDP

HYDROLOGY...

WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE WAVE LAST EVENING COMBINED WITH SOME
TRAINING OF ECHOS THIS MORNING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED. HAVE GONE WITH A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND IN FACT HAVE ALREADY ISSUED SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS WITH ADDITIONAL ISSUANCES LIKELY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF
2 TO 4 INCHES NOW ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAIN TSRA BAND HAS CLEARED THE ATL TERMINALS AND NOW PUSHING INTO
AHN AND CSG WITH MCN NOT FAR BEHIND. HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH 15G30KT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND CIGS
ACTUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AND VFR FOR A BRIEF TIME PERIOD. THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ATL SITES AS IFR BUT
MORE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR MOVES IN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HELD ONTO THE MVFR A LITTLE LONGER THAN
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUED GUSTS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  34  52  32 / 100   5   0   0
ATLANTA         65  33  49  33 / 100   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     59  30  45  26 / 100  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    61  30  46  27 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        69  37  56  34 / 100   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     60  33  48  32 / 100   5   0   0
MACON           70  36  56  32 / 100  20   0   0
ROME            60  30  46  25 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  67  30  50  27 / 100   5   0   0
VIDALIA         74  45  59  40 / 100  70   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...
WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
422 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-050930-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
422 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
1 TO 2 INCHES OF OF ADDITIONAL RAIN WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES...LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARE PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL
LINE THIS MORNING MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THE MAIN CONCERNS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT TO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

BY MIDWEEK...A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS MAY LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
WITH AN ADVISORY POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
642 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

GAZ024-027-041215-
MADISON GA-BANKS GA-
642 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 50 MPH WINDS IN MADISON AND BANKS
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM EST...

AT 641 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED NEAR ILA...OR NEAR
DANIELSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM AS THIS STORM MOVES
ACROSS MADISON AND BANKS COUNTIES THROUGH 715 AM EST.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
DANIELSVILLE...ILA...NEESE...POCATALIGO AND VANNA.

LAT...LON 3426 8312 3423 8308 3417 8310 3415 8306
      3412 8305 3406 8333 3423 8338 3426 8334
      3424 8334 3426 8330 3424 8324 3425 8324
      3425 8320 3424 8317 3427 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1141Z 240DEG 49KT 3418 8329