Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
638 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015/

..SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NW GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT...
..HEAVY RAIN LIKELY MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR REFINEMENTS MADE TO GRIDS SINCE LAST DISCUSSION /SEE
BELOW/ BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. APPEARS
LINE OF CONVECTION STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO NW GEORGIA AFTER
06Z THEN PUSH INTO ATL METRO AROUND 11-12Z WHILE ON A WEAKENING
TREND. WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AND FOG WITH SCT -SHRA TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THEN.

PRECIP SHOULD END QUICKLY BEHIND MAIN PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE.
HAVE MANUALLY DRAWN POPS AS LACK OF GOOD HOURLY MODEL GUIDANCE
EXISTS TODAY. COULD SEE VERY ISOLD CONVECTION BEHIND THIS LINE SUN
AFTERNOON BUT SUBJECTIVE EXPERIENCE IN THIS PATTERN IS COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE.
WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUN AND
SUN EVENING.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. TUESDAYS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE WERE SOME EARLIER DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
LONGER TERM MODELS WITH FORECAST MINS AND MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER AND CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF VALUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...BREEZY OR EVEN WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. VALUES COULD
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND BRING LOW WIND CHILLS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

NLISTEMAA

HYDROLOGY...
STILL ON TRACK TO SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS OVER 1.5 INCHES
CONFINED TO NE GA. BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND FFG HAVE DECIDED
NOT TO ISSUE ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS EVENING.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015/

UPDATE... NEAR TERM FCST APPEARS ON TRACK. MAIN CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS AND HVY RAIN. 12Z SYNOPTIC MODELS AND
HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATING LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO NW
CORNER AROUND OR AFTER 06Z. NAM AND GFS 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
/35-45KTS/ AND MLCAPE /100-250 J/KG/ FAVORABLE FOR QLCS STORMS
WITH ISOLD WIND DMG AND EVEN BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE IN THE NW
1/3RD OF GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...MAINLY NORTH OF I-85.

LATEST QPF GUIDANCE INDICATING 1 TO 2 INCHES THRU 00Z MON WITH
ONLY NE GA AREA EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES. 3HR FFG IS QUITE
LOW /2-2.5 INCHES/ IN NORTH GA DUE TO ANTECEDENT RAINFALL THE LAST
36 HRS. WILL BE COLLABORATING AND LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE DATA
BEFORE DECIDING BUT FOR NOW HOLDING OFF ON WATCH.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD THRU TONIGHT..REACHING ATL/AHN
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT SOME AREAS HAVE BECOME VFR...HOWEVER
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE AT MOST AREAS THRU TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL MOVE INTO THE ATL/CSG AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ALL
AREAS VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  65  35  54 /  40 100  10   0
ATLANTA         57  62  34  50 /  60 100  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  58  29  46 /  90 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    55  61  31  46 / 100 100  10   0
COLUMBUS        63  67  36  53 /  40 100  10   0
GAINESVILLE     49  61  33  50 /  50 100  10   0
MACON           63  69  37  55 /  30 100  10   5
ROME            55  60  30  45 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  59  63  34  51 /  60 100  10   0
VIDALIA         63  75  42  58 /  50  80  70   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-041200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
135 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW...BUT A SQUALL LINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED
BUT ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF THE MORE FLOOD-PRONE BASINS
IN NORTH GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

BY MIDWEEK...A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS MAY LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
941 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

GAZ019-030-040330-
POLK GA-FLOYD GA-
941 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN POLK AND FLOYD
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EST...

AT 937 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CEDAR BLUFF TO JACKSONVILLE IN
ALABAMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS POLK
AND FLOYD COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EST.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ROME...CEDARTOWN
...ROCKMART...ARAGON...CAVE SPRING...BRASWELL...TAYLORSVILLE...
SHANNON... ESOM HILL...EVERETT SPRINGS...ETNA...COOSA...ARMUCHEE...
LINDALE...VAN WERT...SENEY...FISH CREEK...LAKE MARVIN...PINSON AND
ANTIOCH.

DRIVERS SHOULD ALSO USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

LAT...LON 3429 8539 3437 8533 3444 8518 3458 8511
      3459 8507 3454 8506 3454 8509 3447 8509
      3446 8511 3443 8509 3441 8511 3439 8501
      3421 8505 3408 8505 3408 8492 3396 8498
      3395 8505 3391 8505 3390 8538 3428 8546
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 236DEG 45KT 3418 8549

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
955 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

GAZ003-004-040330-
CATOOSA GA-WHITFIELD GA-
955 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN CATOOSA AND
WHITFIELD COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EST...

AT 952 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN THROUGH CEDAR
GROVE TO MENLO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
CATOOSA AND WHITFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EST.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
DALTON...RINGGOLD...FORT OGLETHORPE...VARNELL...TUNNEL HILL...
COHUTTA...DAWNVILLE...LAKEVIEW...GRAYSVILLE...BLUE SPRING...MILL
CREEK...BOYNTON...BEAVERDALE...ROCKY FACE...BEAUMONT...INDIAN
SPRINGS...TILTON...WOOD STATION...RED CLAY S.P. AND EAST RIDGE.

DRIVERS SHOULD ALSO USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

LAT...LON 3499 8481 3487 8482 3478 8488 3472 8486
      3471 8494 3468 8489 3467 8489 3468 8494
      3462 8493 3461 8505 3472 8505 3472 8517
      3477 8515 3478 8520 3485 8520 3486 8526
      3498 8527 3499 8526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 236DEG 46KT 3487 8537

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1008 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

GAZ012-019-020-030-040330-
GORDON GA-BARTOW GA-POLK GA-FLOYD GA-
1008 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN GORDON...BARTOW...POLK AND FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EST...

AT 1007 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF ROME...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75
MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS GORDON...BARTOW...POLK AND FLOYD COUNTIES THROUGH 1030
PM EST.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...CEDARTOWN...ADAIRSVILLE...ROCKMART...
EUHARLEE...EMERSON...ARAGON...WHITE...KINGSTON...TAYLORSVILLE...
SHANNON...CASSVILLE...FAIRMOUNT...RANGER...PINE LOG...FUNKHOUSER...
RED TOP MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...LINDALE AND STILESBORO.

LAT...LON 3417 8531 3439 8502 3453 8465 3408 8466
      3408 8492 3401 8495 3393 8531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 238DEG 64KT 3415 8516

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1026 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

GAZ030-031-041-042-040400-
PAULDING GA-CARROLL GA-HARALSON GA-POLK GA-
1026 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN PAULDING...
CARROLL...HARALSON AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM EST...

AT 1025 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TALLAPOOSA...OR NEAR BUCHANAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PAULDING...CARROLL...HARALSON AND POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM EST.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
DALLAS...BUCHANAN...VILLA RICA...BREMEN...TEMPLE...ROCKMART...
HIRAM...TALLAPOOSA...WACO...BRASWELL...YORKVILLE...NEW HOPE...VAN
WERT...NEW GEORGIA...EUBANK LAKE...BURNT HICKORY RIDGE...FELTON...
CROSS ROADS AND DRAKETOWN.

LAT...LON 3408 8490 3408 8475 3384 8475 3377 8489
      3378 8490 3377 8490 3373 8498 3364 8534
      3384 8538
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 238DEG 64KT 3378 8530

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1048 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

GAZ031>033-043-044-040415-
COBB GA-PAULDING GA-SOUTH FULTON GA-DOUGLAS GA-NORTH FULTON GA-
1048 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN COBB...
PAULDING...SOUTH FULTON...DOUGLAS AND NORTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL
1115 PM EST...

AT 1047 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR POWDER SPRINGS AND DOUGLASVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM AS IT MOVES
ACROSS COBB...PAULDING...SOUTH FULTON...DOUGLAS AND NORTH FULTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM EST.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
ATLANTA...MARIETTA...DOUGLASVILLE...SMYRNA...EAST POINT...VILLA
RICA...COLLEGE PARK...POWDER SPRINGS...AUSTELL...FAIR OAKS...LITHIA
SPRINGS...SWEETWATER CREEK STATE PARK...VININGS...JIM R MILLER
PARK...CAMPBELLTON...DOBBINS AIR RESERVE BASE...WHITE WATER PARK...
SIX FLAGS OVER GEORGIA...CASCADE HEIGHTS AND BROWNSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3360 8488 3378 8487 3400 8445 3365 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 235DEG 36KT 3382 8473