Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
926 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN IS JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN PART VAL VERDE COUNTY
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO
VAL VERDE COUNTY AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND UP TO ONE QUARTER
SIZE HAIL. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY RAIN WITH
POSSIBLE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THE LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/

AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WESTERN AREAS FOR
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL MVFR CIGS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 05Z-07Z.
BY 10Z IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-35 SITES. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT KDRT TO REMAIN MVFR. AFTER 16Z WILL SEE A RETURN TO
MVFR CIGS. EXPECTING MORE CONVECTION SUNDAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED TODAY. SO AFTER 18Z EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOP. FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED VCSH DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION
ISSUES. E/SE WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME MORE S/SE. WINDS AFTER 16Z SUNDAY WILL BE
SE 10-20 KNOTS. ANY CONVECTION OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EAST OF I-35 WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. RE-DEVELOPMENT
OF STREAMER SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ARE FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS
OVERNIGHT. ACROSS WEST TEXAS...CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...
HOWEVER DESPITE THIS A ROBUST 35-45KT 850MB LLJ IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY SUPPORT STORMS MAINTAINING
STRENGTH INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
FEW HI RESOLUTION MODELS AS WELL AS NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE THIS
OCCURRING. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WEST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO BRACKETVILLE LINE
TONIGHT...BUT THE BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEST
OF THIS LINE...SHOULD THE COMPLEX MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE
COVERAGE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND ESPECIALLY EAST. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON A POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED
NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AS UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR RELAXES...AND AS OF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY GIVING THE
SYSTEM A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONVERGED ON A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE MID OR UPPER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HOW ORGANIZED
THE SYSTEM BECOMES AND THE EXACT TRACK INTO AND THROUGH TEXAS WILL
DICTATE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL LEAVE THE EWX CWA
ON THE DRY SUBSIDENT SIDE. A WEAKER SYSTEM INTO THE MID TEXAS
COAST WILL POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. USING A BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW OF
ECMWF/GFS AS WELL AS WPC/NHC COORDINATION WE HAVE SHOWN A GRADIENT
OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MENTIONED CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES.
AS THE FORECAST AND TRENDS ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER SUNDAY AND MONDAY POPS AND QPF AND RESULTING
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE REFINED ACROSS THE EWX CWA...SO STAY
CLOSELY TUNED.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
WEAKNESS REMAINING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH DAYS. DRYING AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA TAKES PLACE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  90  73  89  72 /  20  40  10  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  90  72  89  71 /  20  40  10  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  91  73  90  72 /  20  40  10  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  89  72  88  71 /  20  30  10  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  93  75  93  75 /  40  10  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  88  71 /  20  40  10  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  90  74  91  73 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  72  89  72 /  20  40  10  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  89  73  88  73 /  30  50  30  50  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  90  74  90  74 /  20  30  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  91  75  91  74 /  20  30  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
207 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-141915-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
207 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE...OR ALONG AND
WEST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO BRACKETVILLE LINE. SOME STORMS COULD
CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN
ADDITION...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG CONTAINING SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GULF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE MID OR UPPER TEXAS COAST. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE MID OR UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY
MORNING. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
HIGHWAY 183 OR A LINE FROM NORTHWEST OF AUSTIN TO CUERO. STAY
TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS AS THIS THREAT AREA MAY SHIFT AS DETAILS
ON THIS SYSTEM BECOME MORE CLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
526 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

TXZ221-132330-
WILSON TX-
526 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILSON COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 524 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR PANDORA AND STOCKDALE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. OTHER STORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WILSON COUNTY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLORESVILLE...POTH...STOCKDALE...LA VERNIA...PANDORA...SUTHERLAND
SPRINGS...FAIRVIEW AND CANADA VERDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2905 9834 2916 9834 2937 9813 2936 9811
      2937 9811 2937 9787 2925 9777 2892 9821
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 174DEG 13KT 2923 9789

MSL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1002 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

TXZ183-140400-
VAL VERDE TX-
1002 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL 1100 PM
CDT...

AT 1002 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SHEFFIELD TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LANGTRY...AND MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COMSTOCK...LANGTRY...JUNO...OSMAN...SEMINOLE CANYON STATE PARK...
PANDALE...SHUMLA...PAFFORD CROSSING...HACKBERRY CROSSING...DEVILS
RIVER STATE NATURAL AREA...ROUGH CANYON REC AREA...DEVILS SHORES AND
BAKERS CROSSING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10173 3029 10081 2950 10081 2956 10124
      2963 10126 2962 10128 2958 10128 2958 10131
      2965 10130 2966 10135 2965 10136 2970 10137
      2977 10140 2975 10144 2979 10146 2976 10154
      2981 10155 2977 10158 2976 10171
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 268DEG 30KT 3061 10175 2971 10173

MSL