Flash Flood Watch 15, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
415 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS ARE THE ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING THAT HAS
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTORM LINE CURRENTLY EXTENTS FROM KERR ARCING BACK
SOUTHWEST INTO MAVERICK COUNTY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS LINE IS
ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST AND HAS A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1-2" ARE OCCURRING OVER UVALDE...ZAVALA
AND MAVERICK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO COMPOUND ANY LOCAL FLOODING
ISSUES. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 5-6AM
WITH OVERALL RAINFALL RATES DECREASING. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF US HWY 281 WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW-LVL JET OF 35-40 KT CONTINUES PER KEWX
VAD WIND PROFILE.

BY 6-9AM...FEEL THE LINE OUT WEST WILL HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BUT
WILL LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO BE A LATER FOCUSING TRIGGER FOR
MORE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO AT THIS TIME...THE SCT ACTIVITY
THAT IS NOW ON GOING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND REGENERATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HEATING TAKES PLACE. WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN...SHALLOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE QUITE NUMEROUS THIS AFTN. ONCE OUTFLOWS BEGIN TO
PROPAGATE LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL THESE COLLISIONS AND THE POSSIBLE
LARGER OUTFLOW FROM THE MAIN LINE COULD AID IN PULSE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE WITH PROGGED 2000 J/KG AND
WEAK SHEAR /20KT 0-6 KM/ BUT SOME WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ALSO AND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. ANOTHER MORE
POTENT ROUND OF TSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN FIRE OVER THE BIG BEND AND WEST
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE MAKES IT INTO VAL VERDE BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MORE LIMITED THAN CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS TIME TOMORROW.

FOR MONDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
FOR EASTERN AREAS AS THE FIRST OUTER BANDS OF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE INFLUENCE THE REGION. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND WITH GREATEST SHOWER FOCUS WEST OF US HWY 83
AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. OVERALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACTS FROM FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES AS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSE TO THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE
FROM 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5-6 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT
A STRONG CYCLONE GIVEN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND OVERALL
SHEAR SET-UP. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION BUT THE
OVERALL HAZARDS WILL BE DISCUSSED GIVEN THE MOST LIKELY POSSIBILITY.
THE OP GFS IS MORE WEST TOWARDS BAFFIN BAY WITH EC TOWARDS MATAGORDA
BAY AND NAM FARTHER WEST TOWARDS HOUSTON. GFS ENSEMBLE TRACKS FAVOR
MORE OF AN EC SOLUTION AND FEEL THIS IS THE BEST CONCENSUS AS IT
TRACKS INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. THIS POSSIBLE TRACK WOULD
FAVOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL LIKELY
FALL EAST OF LAVACA/FAYETTE COUNTIES TOWARDS HOUSTON. HOWEVER, FAR
EAST ZONES WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMING ASHORE NEAR MID-DAY TUESDAY...THIS
WILL BE THE BEGINNING WINDOW FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN PERIODS TO OCCUR.
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TIME FRAME WITH
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT WEATHER FOR EASTERN ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN
COULD SET UP OVER THIS AREA. WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE VALUES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ANY DEVIATION LEFT/WEST COULD RESULT IN MORE
RAINFALL. GLOBAL MODELS DO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL (HIGHER THAN AMOUNTS
MENTIONED ABOVE) AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL JUST EAST OF OUR AREA AND
TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE H5 PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH WEAKNESS CENTERED
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE REGION AND
REDUCE RAIN CHANCE TO ONLY 20-30% DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  73  88  73  86 /  50  20  60  40  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  89  72  87  72  86 /  50  20  60  40  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  73  89  73  88 /  50  20  60  40  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            88  72  87  71  85 /  40  20  50  30  60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  75  92  75  93 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  73  87  72  85 /  50  20  60  40  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             89  74  90  74  90 /  30  20  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  72  88  73  86 /  50  20  60  40  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   88  74  88  74  85 /  60  30  70  40  80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  74  89  75  88 /  50  20  50  30  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  74  90  75  90 /  50  20  50  30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
429 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-150930-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
429 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE COULD MOVE INTO
VAL VERDE COUNTY DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS. STORM
STRENGTH WILL WANE BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

GULF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE MID OR UPPER TEXAS
COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE MID OR UPPER TEXAS
COAST EARLY TO MID-DAY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 183 OR A LINE FROM
NORTHWEST OF AUSTIN TO CUERO. WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
6 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE GREATEST THREAT AREA. STAY TUNED
TO FUTURE FORECASTS AS THIS THREAT AREA MAY SHIFT AS DETAILS ON
THIS SYSTEM BECOME MORE CLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
116 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW DEL RIO            29.37N 100.91W
06/14/2015                   VAL VERDE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD CLOSED AT INDUSTRIAL BLVD AND CIENEGAS RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500634

MSL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
128 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

TXZ184>187-202-203-217-218-140715-
ZAVALA TX-MAVERICK TX-EDWARDS TX-BANDERA TX-KINNEY TX-UVALDE TX-
REAL TX-KERR TX-
128 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REAL...NORTHERN MAVERICK...
CENTRAL EDWARDS...NORTHERN ZAVALA...KINNEY...WESTERN BANDERA...UVALDE
AND NORTHWESTERN KERR COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 128 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES WEST OF TELEGRAPH
TO 7 MILES WEST OF DARLING...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UVALDE...BRACKETTVILLE...ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...SPOFFORD...
VANDERPOOL...LA PRYOR...BATESVILLE...HUNT...SABINAL...CAMP WOOD...
LAGUNA...KERR WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...DARLING...MONTELL...LOST
MAPLES STATE PARK...MOUNTAIN HOME...BLEWETT...ALAMO VILLAGE AND
CONCAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2896 10060 3029 10020 3029 9930 3019 9930
      2894 9956
TIME...MOT...LOC 0628Z 269DEG 26KT 3027 10015 2903 10051

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
551 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE DRIPPING SPRINGS  30.24N  98.06W
06/14/2015  M1.36 INCH       HAYS               TX   MESONET

            RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500635

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
554 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S SATTLER             29.81N  98.17W
06/14/2015                   COMAL              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROADWAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500636

SBS