Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

517 
WWUS54 KEWX 182358
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

TXC299-190030-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0134.000000T0000Z-150519T0030Z/
LLANO TX-
658 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LLANO COUNTY...

AT 658 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VALLEY
SPRING...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF LLANO...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VALLEY SPRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3092 9867 3080 9864 3079 9885 3087 9893
      3092 9893
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 163DEG 14KT 3087 9875 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ALLEN

208 
WWUS54 KEWX 190021
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
721 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

TXC299-190031-
/O.EXP.KEWX.SV.W.0134.000000T0000Z-150519T0030Z/
LLANO TX-
721 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LLANO COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 730 PM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3092 9867 3080 9864 3079 9885 3087 9893
      3092 9893
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 158DEG 11KT 3087 9875 

$$

ALLEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
259 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ALL IS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT THINGS
SHOULD START TO PICK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN CWA. 12Z UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN 500 HEIGHT BUT STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE 850 DEWPOINT AT KDRT
TO BE 14C WHICH SIGNIFIES VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE DRYLINE PRETTY FAR TO THE WEST...BUT
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT WITH INITIATING CONVECTION
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS APPEARS TO BE
BEGINNING AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE AND WHETHER OR NOT IF FORMS INTO A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. ANY COMPLEX WOULD HAVE A STORM MOTION THAT
WOULD BRING IT INTO OUR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 00Z.
WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS LOCATION AND ALSO MENTION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE. PW VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERE PARAMETERS WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND SPC HAS PLACED VAL VERDE COUNTY
AND SOME OF MAVERICK AND KINNEY COUNTY IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH A
MARGINAL RISK A BIT FARTHER EAST. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS AREAS WHICH HAS ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THIS
IS PRIMARILY THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL FORGO A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH NOW AS THE CONFIDENCE IN THERE BEING ENOUGH ACTIVITY TO
BRING A MCS INTO OUR CWA IS LOW...BUT THIS IS POSSIBLE AND
SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED THIS EVENING. THE OTHER
CONCERN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
ARE AROUND THE AREA. THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE WE COULD
SEE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST FROM THE EARLY MORNING
ACTIVITY. CANT FIND ANY EVIDENCE OF THE BOUNDARY ANY MORE ON
SATELLITE OR ON A SURFACE ANALYSIS BUT THIS DOESNT MEAN IT IS NOT
THERE. THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG AGAIN TONIGHT AND THERE COULD
BE REGENERATION OF ACTIVITY ON ANY OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA.

FOR TOMORROW...THE BEST LOW-LEVEL LIFT SEEN ON 850 THETA-E
ADVECTION CHARTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AND
WILL CARRY THE BEST POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED BUT THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. ANY SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE
DRYLINE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL BE MOVING EAST AND AS IT DOES SO CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE
NEAR THE LUBBOCK AREA. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GROW INTO A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND MCS PROPAGATION VECTORS WILL BRING ANY
SYSTEM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THINK THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST THEN RETURNS WET
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE HANDLING OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE NORM FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT
THE SAME TIME THE PREVIOUS UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE LATTER WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH...BUT IT SHOULD
HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING SOUTH AT SOME POINT GIVEN THE SW WINDS
ALOFT. THE MAIN DRIVING FOR THE SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE
FRONT SHOULD BE DUE TO CONVECTION/COLD POOLS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH THE CONSENSUS AND HAVE HIGHER POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW WILL DEPART THE SW CONUS
AND WILL PASS CLOSER TO OUR AREA THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE STRONG SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR ANY CHANGES. WE MUST CONTINUE TO
STRESS...WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY LATER THIS WEEK AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO STRESS THE
TURN AROUND DOWN DROWN SLOGAN AS WE CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  72  86  69 /  30  30  10  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  85  72  85  69 /  30  30  10  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  85  71  86  70 /  30  30  10  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  83  70  83  67 /  30  40  10  20  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  87  72  87  70 /  50  30  20  20  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  83  71  84  68 /  20  40  10  20  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  87  72  86  71 /  30  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  85  72  85  70 /  30  30  10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  86  72  86  71 /  20  30  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  72  86  71 /  30  30  10  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  87  73  87  72 /  30  20  10  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
410 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-191000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
410 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT MOST AREAS. AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
242 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSW DUBINA            29.68N  96.85W
05/18/2015                   FAYETTE            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SECTIONS OF HWY 90 AND FM1579 EAST OF SCHULENBURG HAVE
            WATER OVER THE ROADWAYS...ALSO THERE ARE REPORTS OF ROAD
            DAMAGE AND CULVERTS BEING WASHED OUT

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500410

SBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

TXZ171-190015-
LLANO TX-
632 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LLANO COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

AT 631 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LLANO...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LLANO...FIELD CREEK AND VALLEY SPRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3092 9867 3074 9862 3068 9882 3087 9895
      3090 9896 3092 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 158DEG 11KT 3078 9876

ALLEN