River Flood Warning 19, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

202 
WGUS84 KEWX 182048
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
348 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Sandies Creek Near Westhoff AFFECTING De Witt County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC123-182118-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-150520T1930Z/
/WHOT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
348 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Sandies Creek Near Westhoff.
* At  3:15 PM Monday the stage was 17.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river will crest below flood stage at 18.4 feet tomorrow 
  evening.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Westhoff           12   21   17.4   Mon  3 PM  18.1  18.0  15.5   9.7   6.4


&&

LAT...LON 2923 9749 2923 9742 2918 9734 2911 9733
      2909 9737 2914 9739             

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
550 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ALL AREAS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
EDWARDS TONIGHT...THEN EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN
AREA TUESDAY. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FOR NOW...
HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
IFR/MVFR CIGS LIFT TO VFR MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN
THIS EVENING...THEN IFR OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO MVFR TUESDAY. PATCHY
IFR/MVFR VSBYS IN BR ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WELL IN SHRA/TSRA. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS PREVAIL
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING AND
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. COVERAGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS...EVENTUALLY FOCUSING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
CWA...NORTHEAST OF A SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE...AS MID
LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO FIRE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND WEST TEXAS
NEAR THE DRY LINE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH WESTERN AREAS
OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS
REGION.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL SHEAR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. A LEAD MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE
PANHANDLE...AND INTO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN FORCING
WILL PASS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED POPS NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO AUSTIN LINE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
INITIALLY SHOULD SEE A REDUCTION IN POPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE...STRENGTHENING CAP...AND LACK OF
FORCING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
DEPENDENT ON SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH THE
NAM12 AND ECMWF ARE STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTH BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH HAVE THE
FRONT ENTERING THE HILL COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BISECTING THE
CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY. ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE ON HOW FAR SOUTH
FRONT MAKES IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO THE NAM12/ECMWF SOLUTIONS OVER THE GFS...SHOWING THE
FRONT WILL BE CLOSE OR INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
BACKED FLOW...MOISTURE POOLING...WEAKENING CAP AND THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON WHERE FRONT
STALLS AND WHEN IT EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK NORTH. AGAIN...CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN THIS. TIMING OF ANY
DISTURBANCES ALSO IN THE APPROACHING ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL BRANCH
OF THE JET STREAM ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT GENERALLY CONTINUED SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALSO TRICKY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
AND MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED IN FUTURE PACKAGES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FOR THURSDAY IF FRONT IS FARTHER SOUTH.

EVENTUALLY THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA OPENS AND
MOVES EAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATE ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF
PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  72  85  71  86 /  50  20  30  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  72  85  71  86 /  50  20  30  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  72  86  71  85 /  40  20  20  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  71  83  70  83 /  40  20  40  10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  72  88  72  88 /  40  40  30  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  71  84  71  84 /  50  20  30  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  72  87  72  87 /  40  20  20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  72  85  71  86 /  50  20  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  73  86  73  86 /  50  10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  72  86  72  86 /  40  20  20  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  73  87  73  87 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
410 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-191000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
410 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT MOST AREAS. AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
527 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

TXZ223-181100-
GONZALES TX-
527 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GONZALES COUNTY
UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

AT 526 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GONZALES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GONZALES...WAELDER...LITTLE NEW YORK...DILWORTH...NEWTONVILLE AND
NICKLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2963 9714 2958 9721 2957 9720 2944 9737
      2959 9748 2976 9730 2964 9713
TIME...MOT...LOC 1026Z 229DEG 20KT 2954 9739

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
732 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FLATONIA                29.69N  97.11W
05/18/2015                   FAYETTE            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROADS AT HWY 95 AND 609 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AND A
            NUMBER OF LOW WATER CROSSING HAVE WATER FLOWING OVER THE
            ROADWAYS

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500406

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
733 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W LA GRANGE           29.91N  96.93W
05/18/2015                   FAYETTE            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AIRPORT ROAD AT HIGHWAY 71 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500407

HAMPSHIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
739 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N NEWTONVILLE         29.69N  97.20W
05/18/2015                   GONZALES           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER THE ROADWAY AT INTERSTATE 10 AND THE
            GONZALES FAYETTE COUNTY LINE...EARLIER THERE WAS A SEMI
            THAT SLID OFF THE ROADWAY DUE TO HIGH WATER AND THERE
            WAS A HIGH WATER RESCUE IN GONZALES BUT SPECIFIC DETAILS
            ARE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500408

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
745 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE MULDOON            29.84N  97.04W
05/18/2015  M4.98 INCH       FAYETTE            TX   MESONET

            LCRA GAUGE MEASURED 4.98 IN THE PAST SIX HOURS

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500409

SBS