River Flood Warning 53, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

571 
WGUS44 KEWX 260027
FLWEWX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
727 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued 
 a flood warning for the... 

  Barton Creek...Colorado River...Llano River...Onion Creek...Pedernales River 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 
 
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 
 
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 
 
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 
 
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC299-261247-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-150526T1247Z/
/LLAT2.1.ER.150525T2106Z.150525T2200Z.150526T0047Z.NO/
727 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The flood warning continues for the Llano River At Llano.
* until Tuesday morning...or until the warning is cancelled. 
* At  7:00 PM Monday the stage was 10.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river level will continue to fall to below flood stage by
  Monday evening.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding can swamp boats in the lower 
  Llano River in Kingsland..
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.2 feet on Jul 6 
  2002.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Llano              10   10   10.3   Mon 07 PM   6.5   5.4   4.0   3.5   3.1


&&

LAT...LON 3067 9896 3075 9896 3078 9854 3067 9843
      3060 9841 3071 9858             

$$

TXC031-261827-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-150527T0331Z/
/JOCT2.1.ER.150525T2242Z.150526T0600Z.150526T1531Z.NO/
727 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The flood warning continues for the Pedernales River At Johnson City.
* until Tuesday evening...or until the warning is cancelled. 
* At  7:00 PM Monday the stage was 15.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 16.8 feet by early morning
  Tuesday. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow late Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding makes secondary roads, 
  bridges and low crossings very dangerous. Swimmers and recreationists should 
  move from the flood plain downstream in Pedernales Falls State Park. Near the 
  USGS 1:2 year flood..
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.7 feet on Nov 17 
  2004.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Johnson City       13   14   15.4   Mon 07 PM  15.0  11.6  11.3  11.1  10.9


&&

LAT...LON 3026 9841 3034 9841 3037 9818 3046 9809
      3041 9802 3031 9812             

$$

TXC453-261827-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-150526T1907Z/
/ABTT2.1.ER.150525T2136Z.150525T2245Z.150526T0707Z.NO/
727 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The flood warning continues for the Barton Creek At Loop 360.
* until Tuesday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled. 
* At  7:00 PM Monday the stage was 9.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
  early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Flow exceeds lowest sections of the banks..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Barton Ck Loop 3    8    8    9.2   Mon 07 PM   6.7   5.4   4.9   4.6   4.3


&&

LAT...LON 3028 9788 3031 9785 3027 9781 3028 9778
      3025 9774 3022 9781             

$$

TXC453-261827-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0058.150526T0027Z-150526T1934Z/
/ACRT2.1.ER.150525T2343Z.150526T0600Z.150526T0734Z.NO/
727 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

 The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a 

* Flood Warning for the Colorado River At Austin.
* until Tuesday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:00 PM Monday the stage was 33.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 35.1 feet by early
  morning Tuesday. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet...Lowest homes and apartments near the Colorado River 
  and the lower part of Onion Creek are threatened. Residents should monitor 
  NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio for developing flood warnings. Livestock can be
  cut off in low areas below Austin. Lowest homes below Austin to Bastrop 
  flood..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Austin             25   33   33.7   Mon 07 PM  27.1  19.6  18.0  17.0  16.0


&&

LAT...LON 3023 9778 3030 9776 3020 9738 3014 9731
      3007 9737 3013 9743             

$$

TXC453-261827-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-150526T2253Z/
/ATIT2.2.ER.150526T0057Z.150526T0600Z.150526T1053Z.NO/
727 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The flood warning continues for the Onion Creek At Hwy 183.
* until Tuesday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled. 
* At  7:00 PM Monday the stage was 15.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level will rise to around 24.5 feet by early morning
  Tuesday. The river will fall below flood stage on Tuesday.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding is well into the flood 
  plain. Richard Moya Park on Burleson Road is flooded. Water is out of banks 
  near Champions Lane, but no residential structures in neighborhoods along 
  Onion Creek are impacted at this level..
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 23.8 feet on Jun 9 
  1997.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Hwy 183            15   17   15.6   Mon 07 PM  15.3   8.6   7.5   6.8   6.3


&&

LAT...LON 3012 9781 3018 9779 3023 9759 3019 9753


$$

TXC021-261827-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0059.150526T2256Z-150527T2209Z/
/BRTT2.2.ER.150526T2256Z.150527T0600Z.150527T1009Z.NO/
727 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

 The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a 

* Flood Warning for the Colorado River At Bastrop.
* from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  7:00 PM Monday the stage was 18.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level will rise to around 25.7 feet by early Wednesday
  morning.The river will then fall below flood stage by Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding reaches bottomlands above 
  Bastrop near the Colorado River and Piney and Wilbarger Creek confluences. 
  Water begins to enter the city park and officials will close the park..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Bastrop            14   23   18.4   Mon 07 PM  13.6  21.8  10.4   6.4   5.0


&&

LAT...LON 3007 9737 3014 9731 3006 9717 2999 9718


$$

135 
WGUS44 KEWX 260159
FLWEWX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
859 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued 
 a flood warning for the... 

  Barton Creek...Colorado River...Llano River...Onion Creek...Pedernales River 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 
 
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 
 
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 
 
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 
 
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC299-260229-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-150526T1247Z/
/LLAT2.1.ER.150525T2106Z.150525T2200Z.150526T0038Z.NO/
859 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

* At  8:00 PM Monday the stage was 9.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
  The river level has fallen below flood stage.
  This will be the last forecast for this event.
  
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding can swamp boats in the lower 
  Llano River in Kingsland..
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.2 feet on Jul 6 
  2002.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Llano              10   10    9.8   Mon 08 PM   6.4   5.0   4.5   4.1   3.7


&&

LAT...LON 3067 9896 3075 9896 3078 9854 3067 9843
      3060 9841 3071 9858             

$$

TXC031-261509-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-150526T1509Z/
/JOCT2.1.ER.150525T2242Z.150525T2350Z.150526T0309Z.NO/
859 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The flood warning continues for the Pedernales River At Johnson City.
* until Tuesday morning...or until the warning is cancelled. 
* At  8:00 PM Monday the stage was 14.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage Monday night.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding makes secondary roads, 
  bridges and low crossings very dangerous. Swimmers and recreationists should 
  move from the flood plain downstream in Pedernales Falls State Park. Near the 
  USGS 1:2 year flood..
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.7 feet on Nov 17 
  2004.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Johnson City       13   14   14.5   Mon 08 PM  11.8  11.2  11.1  10.9  10.9


&&

LAT...LON 3026 9841 3034 9841 3037 9818 3046 9809
      3041 9802 3031 9812             

$$

TXC453-261404-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-150526T1404Z/
/ABTT2.1.ER.150525T2136Z.150525T2245Z.150526T0204Z.NO/
859 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The flood warning continues for the Barton Creek at Loop 360.
* until Tuesday morning...or until the warning is cancelled. 
* At  8:00 PM Monday the stage was 8.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The creek level will continue to fall to below flood stage
  Tuesday night.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Flow exceeds lowest sections of the banks..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Barton Ck Loop 3    8    8    8.2   Mon 08 PM   6.2   5.2   4.8   4.5   4.4


&&

LAT...LON 3028 9788 3031 9785 3027 9781 3028 9778
      3025 9774 3022 9781             

$$

TXC453-261400-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0058.000000T0000Z-150526T1400Z/
/ACRT2.1.ER.150525T2343Z.150526T0100Z.150526T0200Z.NO/
859 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The flood warning continues for the Colorado River At Austin.
* until Tuesday morning...or until the warning is cancelled. 
* At  8:00 PM Monday the stage was 34.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river level will begin to fall mid Monday evening and continue
  to fall to below flood stage by early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet...Lowest homes and apartments near the Colorado River 
  and the lower part of Onion Creek are threatened. Residents should monitor 
  NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio for developing flood warnings. Livestock can be
  cut off in low areas below Austin. Lowest homes below Austin to Bastrop 
  flood..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Austin             25   33   34.1   Mon 08 PM  22.8  18.0  17.0  15.9  15.0


&&

LAT...LON 3023 9778 3030 9776 3020 9738 3014 9731
      3007 9737 3013 9743             

$$

TXC453-261959-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-150526T2058Z/
/ATIT2.2.ER.150526T0028Z.150526T0600Z.150526T0858Z.NO/
859 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The flood warning continues for the Onion Creek At Hwy 183.
* until Tuesday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled. 
* At  8:20 PM Monday the stage was 18.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.4 feet by very early
  Tuesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding is well into the flood 
  plain. Richard Moya Park on Burleson Road is flooded. Water is out of banks 
  near Champions Lane, but no residential structures in neighborhoods along 
  Onion Creek are impacted at this level..
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 23.8 feet on Jun 9 
  1997.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Hwy 183            15   17   18.7   Mon 08 PM   9.5   7.7   6.6   6.4   6.2


&&

LAT...LON 3012 9781 3018 9779 3023 9759 3019 9753


$$

TXC021-261959-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0059.150526T0407Z-150527T1946Z/
/BRTT2.3.ER.150526T0407Z.150526T1200Z.150527T0746Z.NO/
859 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...Forecast flooding INCREASED from Moderate to Major severity... 
The flood warning continues for the Colorado River At Bastrop.
* until Wednesday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled. 
* At  8:45 PM Monday the stage was 19.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level will rise to near 28.5 feet by Tuesday morning.
  The river will fall below flood stage by early Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding reaches bottomlands above 
  Bastrop near the Colorado River and Piney and Wilbarger Creek confluences. 
  Water begins to enter the city park and officials will close the park..
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 29.5 feet on Jun 14 
  1987.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Bastrop            14   23   19.9   Mon 09 PM  28.5  19.9   8.6   5.9   4.6


&&

LAT...LON 3007 9737 3014 9731 3006 9717 2999 9718


$$

TXC021-149-261959-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0060.150526T0330Z-150528T1200Z/
/SMIT2.2.ER.150526T0330Z.150527T0600Z.150528T0000Z.NO/
859 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

 The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a 

* Flood Warning for the Colorado River Near Smithville.
* until Thursday morning...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 PM Monday the stage was 17.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level will rise to near 24.9 feet by early Wednesday
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage by Wednesday evening.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Flow threatens lowest residences five miles upstream 
  at Hidden Valley Estates and three miles upstream at Doty River Estates. Roads
  and bridges near the river flood and are dangerous to motorists..
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 26.5 feet on May 25 
  1975.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 Smithville         10   20   17.8   Mon 08 PM  23.8  24.3  12.9   6.7   4.3


&&

LAT...LON 2999 9718 3006 9717 2996 9686 2989 9692


$$

TXC149-261959-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0061.150526T0413Z-150528T1912Z/
/LGRT2.2.ER.150526T0413Z.150526T1800Z.150528T0712Z.NO/
859 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

 The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a 

* Flood Warning for the Colorado River Above La Grange.
* until Thursday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:31 PM Monday the stage was 22.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level will rise to near 36.7 feet by early Tuesday
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage by early Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 37.0 feet...Major flooding of the Colorado River reaches lowest 
  homes in the Fritsch Auf Subdivision on the south bank of the Colorado River 
  in La Grange. Severely flooded roads and bridges near the river make travel 
  and evacuations very dangerous..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat
 La Grange          19   26   22.7   Mon 09 PM  35.8  33.1  23.2  11.9   8.4


&&

LAT...LON 2989 9692 2996 9686 2982 9669 2976 9675


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1228 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE ONGOING THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GREATEST THREAT WILL
REMAIN AT THE I-35 TERMINALS. KDRT SHOULD BE GOOD WITH CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO VFR. CURRENT TRENDS ARE SHOWING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CONVECTION AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BE S/SE AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS. BY 06-08Z MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. WITH WET GROUNDS HAVE
INCLUDE SOME FOG FOR THE I-35 SITES AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...COORDINATED WITH SPC ON TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 PM. STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ONGOING
SUPERCELL TRACKING THROUGH EDWARDS COUNTY HAS PRODUCED LARGE HAIL
REPORTS ALL THEY WAY BACK THROUGH VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE REPORTED BACK INTO MEXICO WHERE IT BEGAN.
DISCRETE STORM CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT WITH STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE HILL
COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES.
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS FLASH
FLOODING...WITH STREAM FLOWS THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY STILL
ELEVATED AND GROUNDS EAST SATURATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN VICINITY OF KDRT AT TAF ISSUANCE. THIS
STORM SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE TERMINAL BY 12Z SO ONLY INCLUDED VCTS
IN THE TAF. NO DEVELOPMENT SEEN YET BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO THE TAFS FROM THE 06Z ISSUANCE...TIMING STILL LOOKS
GOOD FOR TSRA AT I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE
CLEAR OF THE TERMINALS BY AROUND 00Z. ISOLATED STORMS MAY CLUTTER
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE ROUTES FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS GETTING READY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD
HAVE HEAVY RAIN AND BE SEVERE. CURRENTLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS A COMPACT BUT STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CAN BE SEEN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS. LOOKING AT
WATER VAPOR SHOWS US THAT THERE ARE TWO AREAS WHERE UPPER LIFT
WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH THE FIRST BEING OVER WEST TEXAS IS CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. THE SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT IS FARTHER
SOUTH...JUST WEST OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. PER LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY...WE ARE ALREADY SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOUT 40
MILES WEST OF DEL RIO. MORNING HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE
TWO AREAS OF LIFT QUITE WELL AND KEEP AN AXIS OF THE MOST ACTIVITY
FOLLOWING A WSW TO ENE TRACK FROM THE RESPECTIVE ORIGINS. THIS
WOULD BRING HIGH COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NORTH OF OUR
CWA FROM THE NORTHERN PIECE AND A GOOD SWATH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF
THIS IS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY
TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z. FOR THE MORNING HOURS...THINK THE
ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW THE EXPECTED MOTION QUITE WELL...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD LEAD TO MORE
CHAOTIC DEVELOPMENT AND STORM MOTIONS...AND COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THIS
EXPECTED SCENARIO...THE BEST COVERAGE WOULD BE ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENT GOES PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE IS SLIGHTLY DRIER
THAN THE LAST RAINFALL EVENT AND THIS WILL HELP KEEP RAIN TOTALS
DOWN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...1-4
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THESE AMOUNTS WILL NOT OCCUR FOR EVERYONE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE. IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF RAINFALL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL
FLOODING SO EVERYONE NEEDS TO BE WEATHER AWARE TODAY. GIVEN THE
CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND MOVED UP
THE START TIME TO 11Z OR 6AM.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE TODAY AND WITH PLENTY
OF SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL INITIALLY...BUT DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
THE KDFX VAD WIND PROFILE AND SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATE PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH TURNING FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL. THE
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING THREAT WE WILL HAVE A DECENT
SEVERE THREAT AND SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE CWA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT. WITH THE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING. AGAIN...BE WEATHER AWARE
ON THE HOLIDAY WITH MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET WEATHER INFORMATION.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE LATE EVENING AND
WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF THE
AREA DRY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SO FAR THIS
SPRING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND 90S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. BY THURSDAY....THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE EAST AND WE SHOULD COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR HIGHS. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE
AREA...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS LOW AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SO ANOTHER WET PERIOD IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL OR EXACTLY WHERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  68  88  73  89 /  80  30  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  67  87  72  88 /  80  40  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     82  69  87  73  89 /  70  40  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            80  66  87  71  87 /  80  30  20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  70  91  74  90 /  60  10  -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  68  87  72  88 /  80  30  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  70  88  73  88 /  60  20  20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  68  87  73  88 /  70  40  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  71  87  74  88 /  80  60  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  70  87  74  88 /  70  30  20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  70  88  74  89 /  70  30  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
930 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-261430-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
930 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 PM TODAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OVER 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE MULTIPLE WEATHER THREATS POSSIBLE DURING THE MEMORIAL
DAY HOLIDAY...IT IS IMPERATIVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE WEATHER
SITUATION. SINCE MANY WILL LIKELY BE TRAVELING AS PART OF THEIR
HOLIDAY PLANS...KNOW BEFORE YOU GO...WHAT ROADS MAY BE
EXPERIENCING FLOODING AND IF ANY ARE ENCOUNTERED...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN. MAKE SURE YOU ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE WARNINGS
FROM YOUR TRUSTED SOURCES VIA RADIO...TELEVISION...OR MOBILE
DEVICE. ENSURE BATTERIES ARE CHARGED IN DEVICES THAT REQUIRE THEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT
WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO IMPROVE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL SO MORE FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AGAIN LATE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
401 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE PFLUGERVILLE       30.48N  97.57W
05/25/2015  E60 MPH          TRAVIS             TX   STORM CHASER

            SIGNS BLOWN DOWN AND SIDING BLOWN OFF BUILDINGS...WIND
            GUST ESTIMATED TO 60 MPH

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500522

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
404 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     HAIL             10 N AUSTIN             30.42N  97.74W
05/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       TRAVIS             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500523

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
406 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE AUSTIN            30.33N  97.72W
05/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       TRAVIS             TX   COCORAHS

            ONE INCH IN THE PAST HOUR...STREETS AND YARDS ARE
            FLOODED

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500524

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
409 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW CAMP MABRY         30.31N  97.78W
05/25/2015                   TRAVIS             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGH WATER RESCUE IN THE 2900 BLOCK OF WESTLAKE DRIVE

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500525

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
411 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     FLASH FLOOD      AUSTIN                  30.27N  97.74W
05/25/2015                   TRAVIS             TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FLOODING REPORTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS AROUND THE CITY
            OF AUSTIN

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500526

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
417 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ENE HUTTO             30.57N  97.48W
05/25/2015                   WILLIAMSON         TX   STORM CHASER

            HWY 79 IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLASH FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500527

CVP