Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
304 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW...STORMS WILL BECOME WEAKER
AND EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AND END BY FRIDAY. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW IS OCCURRING EAST OF
THE SYSTEM IN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING STRONG LIFT
AND FORCING OVER THE AREA THAT IS ACTING ON A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE BOTH SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE FOCUS OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THE FOCUS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT...DIMINISHING THE SEVERE STORM
THREAT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL BE WEAKER WITH ONLY PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL EXPECTED. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A SECONDARY WEAKER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z...
UPPER LOW WILL START TO LIFT OUT OF AZ OVER NEXT 24 HRS WITH SCT-
BKN050-070. SCT TO NMRS VRB25G40KT TSRAGR BKN030 EXPECTED THRU
06Z...ESPECIALLY EAST OF RIO GRANDE WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE WEST. 06Z-
12Z COVERAGE WILL MAINLY BE HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES.  JUST ISOLD
-TSRA OR -SHRA EXPECTED 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RUNNING NEAR TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT WITH WINDS UNDER 15 MPH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 54  73  51  75 /  60  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           52  73  51  75 /  80  30   0   0
LAS CRUCES              48  70  46  72 /  60  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              50  71  48  73 /  70  30   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              37  51  39  55 /  90  40   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   48  68  46  70 /  60  30   0   0
SILVER CITY             43  63  42  66 /  60  30   0   0
DEMING                  47  70  44  72 /  50  20   0   0
LORDSBURG               45  70  45  73 /  40  20   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      54  73  53  75 /  60  30   0   0
DELL CITY               53  74  51  76 /  90  30   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  76  51  77 /  80  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  68  51  71 /  80  20   0   0
FABENS                  53  74  50  76 /  60  20   0   0
SANTA TERESA            51  72  50  74 /  60  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          51  70  49  72 /  70  30   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           45  70  43  72 /  60  30   0   0
HATCH                   46  70  44  72 /  60  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                49  71  47  73 /  50  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               52  71  51  73 /  70  20   0   0
MAYHILL                 41  60  42  62 /  80  30   0   0
MESCALERO               40  61  41  63 /  80  30   0   0
TIMBERON                43  59  43  61 /  80  40   0   0
WINSTON                 41  61  40  64 /  60  30   0   0
HILLSBORO               44  68  42  69 /  60  30   0   0
SPACEPORT               45  70  44  72 /  60  20   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            35  64  34  67 /  70  30   0   0
HURLEY                  42  66  42  68 /  60  20   0   0
CLIFF                   38  69  39  71 /  50  20   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  67  38  69 /  40  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 44  66  42  68 /  60  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  46  71  45  73 /  30  20   0   0
HACHITA                 46  71  45  72 /  40  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  70  45  72 /  40  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              45  68  45  70 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SOUTH CENTRAL THRU 8 PM.
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FAR WEST THRU 8 PM. &&

04/26 GRZYWACZ/LUNDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1227 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

NMZ402-403-407>417-TXZ418>424-221200-
SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-
SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1227 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS IN STORE WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
8 PM FOR THE AREA. EVEN SMALL HAIL IN LARGE AMOUNTS WILL RESULT
IN DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO VERY SLICK ROAD SURFACES.
ACCUMULATING HAIL WILL ALSO PLUG DRAINS AND RESULT IN STREET
FLOODING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ON THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AND END FROM WEST
TO EAST. SOME STRONG STORMS WITH 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND DIME SIZE
HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. THEN
BY FRIDAY IT SHOULD BE DRY AREAWIDE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHICH
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
TRAINED SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL THIS OFFICE WITH
REPORTS.

NMZ401-404>406-221200-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
1227 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH...BUT
MOST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
TRAINED SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL THIS OFFICE WITH
REPORTS.

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
304 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E EL PASO             31.78N 106.44W
10/21/2015                   EL PASO            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            FLOODING BETWEEN US 54 AND MONTANA AVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1500220

HC

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