Alert archive / New Mexico / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516

October 21, 20157 counties in New Mexico; El Paso County, Hudspeth County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Oct 21, 2015, 12:16 PM MDT for 7 counties in New Mexico; El Paso County, Hudspeth County, Texas. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 21, 2015, 12:16 PM MDT (18:16 UTC)
Expired
Oct 21, 2015, 8:00 PM MDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Chaves County, NM, Doña Ana County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Luna County, NM, Otero County, NM, Sierra County, NM, Socorro County, NM, El Paso County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX

The radar

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 12 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

19 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 21, 12:43 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana62 min
Oct 21, 1:30 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningEPZDoña Ana2 hr
Oct 21, 1:32 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana, Sierra43 min
Oct 21, 1:37 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana38 min
Oct 21, 2:13 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana, Sierra47 min
Oct 21, 2:26 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana49 min
Oct 21, 2:34 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero41 min
Oct 21, 2:37 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero53 min
Oct 21, 2:57 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningEPZEl Paso2 hr
Oct 21, 3:09 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana, Otero51 min
Oct 21, 3:13 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero47 min
Oct 21, 3:17 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningEPZDoña Ana118 min
Oct 21, 3:27 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero48 min
Oct 21, 3:30 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero45 min
Oct 21, 3:52 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero38 min
Oct 21, 3:53 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZDoña Ana42 min
Oct 21, 3:54 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQLincoln19 min
Oct 21, 4:03 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEPZOtero45 min
Oct 21, 6:22 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQChaves38 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Santa Teresa, NM at 12:00Z on 2015-10-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 596 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Santa Teresa, NM at 12:00Z on 2015-10-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 94 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
596 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-100 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1493 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
94 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
143 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 20, 7:21 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe, Lea and 4 more114 min
Oct 21, 9:50 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDoña Ana, Luna, Otero, Sierra115 min
Oct 21, 12:22 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChaves, Doña Ana, Eddy, Lincoln, Luna, Otero and 2 more23 min
Oct 21, 2:23 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDoña Ana, Lincoln, Otero, Sierra, Socorro2 hr
Oct 21, 4:32 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCEddy, Lea6 hr
Oct 21, 5:31 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChaves, Otero89 min
Oct 21, 2:51 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrewster, Culberson, Jeff Davis, Loving, Pecos, Presidio and 2 more114 min
Oct 21, 3:23 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarson, Hansford, Hemphill, Hutchinson, Lipscomb, Moore and 3 more67 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Mexico, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2015Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.