Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
354 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED IN THE
BORDERLAND...WITH THE EMPHASIS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN
YESTERDAY. ONCE AGAIN LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST...ALLOWING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE. FROM FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND HAS BEEN
CAUSING TROUBLE IN OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. IMPRESSIVE VIDEO OF 1.5"
DIAMETER HAIL ON I-10 BETWEEN DEMING AND LORDSBURG WAS TWEETED
EARLIER. COULD BE INTERESTING LATER TODAY WHEN THE AIR ALOFT
BECOMES COLDER WITH APPROACH OF LOW AND SURFACE HEATING ENTERS THE
SCENE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...IN THAT ORDER...WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THUS IT SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS VERTICAL SHEAR BUT A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. STORMS SHOULD STILL HAVE RAPID MOVEMENT
PROMOTING STRONG OUTFLOWS BUT REDUCING FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT HAIL ACCUMULATION TENDS TO PLUG UP THE
DRAINS ALLOWING FLOODING WITH LESS RAINFALL THAN ONE WOULD
EXPECT...SO FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

BY THURSDAY THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST...SO THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS IN HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. THEN DRIER AIR TAKES OVER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL MAKE PRECIP A
CHALLENGE FOR WEAKER TROUGHS THAT FOLLOW LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE A FEW
SHOWERS OUT OF THEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL BRING
+TSRAGS/ISOLD +TSRAGR TO ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 22/04Z. WND
VRB35G55KT/LCL VIS 1-2 SM WITH STORMS. LCL CIGS 010-030
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...040-060 LOWLANDS. STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO BE
210/25-30 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY EAST TODAY. FEATURE WILL THEN
WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...FACTORS FAVORING SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. THE RESULT WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. DRIER WEATHER WILL TAKE OVER FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STARTING THURSDAY...THEN ALL AREAS
FRIDAY.

HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK. EXPECT EXCELLENT VENT RATES
TODAY...WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. FAIR TO
GOOD VENT RATES ARE ON TAP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 76  54  73  51 /  60  60  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           71  52  73  51 /  60  80  30   0
LAS CRUCES              73  48  70  46 /  60  60  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              73  50  71  48 /  70  70  30   0
CLOUDCROFT              52  37  51  39 /  80  90  40   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  48  68  46 /  60  60  30   0
SILVER CITY             62  43  63  42 /  60  60  30   0
DEMING                  70  47  70  44 /  60  60  20   0
LORDSBURG               70  45  70  45 /  50  50  20   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      75  54  73  53 /  60  60  30   0
DELL CITY               76  53  74  51 /  60  80  30   0
FORT HANCOCK            77  54  76  51 /  60  80  20   0
LOMA LINDA              70  52  68  51 /  60  80  20   0
FABENS                  76  53  74  50 /  60  60  20   0
SANTA TERESA            73  51  72  50 /  60  60  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          73  51  70  49 /  70  70  30   0
JORNADA RANGE           71  45  70  43 /  60  60  30   0
HATCH                   72  46  70  44 /  60  60  20   0
COLUMBUS                71  49  71  47 /  50  50  20   0
OROGRANDE               73  52  71  51 /  70  70  20   0
MAYHILL                 60  41  60  42 /  70  80  30   0
MESCALERO               61  40  61  41 /  80  80  30   0
TIMBERON                57  43  59  43 /  80  80  40   0
WINSTON                 61  41  61  40 /  60  60  30   0
HILLSBORO               66  44  68  42 /  60  60  30   0
SPACEPORT               70  45  70  44 /  60  60  20   0
LAKE ROBERTS            61  35  64  34 /  70  70  30   0
HURLEY                  65  42  66  42 /  60  60  20   0
CLIFF                   67  38  69  39 /  60  60  20   0
MULE CREEK              63  36  67  38 /  50  50  20   0
FAYWOOD                 64  44  66  42 /  60  60  20   0
ANIMAS                  71  46  71  45 /  50  50  20   0
HACHITA                 72  46  71  45 /  50  50  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          71  45  70  45 /  50  50  10   0
CLOVERDALE              67  45  68  45 /  50  50  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

01 FAUSETT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
110 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-211230-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
110 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WITH QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 TO 70 MPH
WIND GUSTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE HAIL
PLUGS UP STORM DRAINS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM FOR HIDALGO...LUNA...SIERRA AND GRANT COUNTIES. ANOTHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OTERO...EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES THROUGH
9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WEDNESDAY...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN TODAY...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
STRONG STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY DRY THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

TRAINED SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL THIS OFFICE WITH
REPORTS.

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
231 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 AM     HAIL             3 ESE SEPAR             32.18N 108.37W
10/21/2015  E1.50 INCH       GRANT              NM   PUBLIC

            SPOTTER REPORTS HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER ON
            I-10 3 MILES ESE OF SEPAR NM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1500203

FAUSETT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
327 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

NMZ407-211015-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN NM-
327 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LUNA COUNTY UNTIL 415 AM
MDT...

AT 326 AM MDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM ON
RADAR OVER HERMANAS...OR 18 MILES WEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEMING...
SUNSHINE...
HERMANAS...
SPRING CANYON STATE PARK...
ROCK HOUND STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 10774 3229 10747 3178 10787 3178 10797
      3184 10808
TIME...MOT...LOC 0926Z 210DEG 38KT 3187 10795

FAUSETT

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