Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Kansas City, MO

012 
WWUS53 KEAX 170017
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
717 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

KSC005-091-103-209-MOC021-165-170045-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-150517T0045Z/
LEAVENWORTH KS-JOHNSON KS-WYANDOTTE KS-ATCHISON KS-BUCHANAN MO-
PLATTE MO-
717 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND EASTERN ATCHISON...
WESTERN WYANDOTTE AND LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND
SOUTHWESTERN BUCHANAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND WESTERN
PLATTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 716 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NORTONVILLE TO MCLOUTH TO VINLAND...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TONGANOXIE...GARDNER...DE SOTO...OLATHE...ATCHISON...LEAVENWORTH...
BASEHOR...WESTON...LANSING...BONNER SPRINGS...PLATTE CITY...
EDWARDSVILLE...SHAWNEE...LAKE QUIVIRA...EASTON...LINWOOD...
RUSHVILLE...TRACY...CAMDEN POINT AND RENO.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 410 AND 416.
  I-35 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 208 AND 221.
  I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 1 TO 34 TO 83.
  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3942 9545 3964 9511 3962 9506 3967 9502
      3969 9497 3972 9497 3942 9469 3932 9470
      3881 9477 3877 9506 3898 9506 3898 9508
      3895 9508 3898 9516 3896 9519 3941 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 217DEG 30KT 3940 9531 3922 9512
          3883 9517

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

LEIGHTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
602 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

Main focus with this forecast issuance will be the potential for
strong to severe storms this afternoon through early Sunday morning.
As the low-level atmosphere destabilized late this morning, a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms developed in an area of broad
lift, moderate instability, and very little deep layer shear. These
storms have begun shifting east, and additional convective initiation
over eastern KS and far western MO has thus far struggled. 18 UTC
sounding out of KTOP indicates very weak midlevel lapse rates, and
thus will likely need some midlevel cooling to support any robust or
long-lasting convection. As a result, any convection this afternoon
through much of the evening should be weak, and any severe weather
threat will hold off until late evening into the early overnight
hours.

Synoptically, a deep upper trough will continue to push eastward
during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the trough, deep
southwest flow is present aloft and moisture continues to surge into
the region at low-levels under south southeast flow. This trough
will provide forcing for widespread convection west of the forecast
area from late afternoon through tonight; however, ongoing showers
through much of central KS has impacted the amount of instability
present to fuel these storms, and could impact their severity and
longevity.

As the upper trough pushes east, deep-layer shear values will begin
to increase in response to the backing of low-level winds and the
increasing wind speeds aloft associated with the upper jet. MUCAPE
values are expected to remain in the 1000-2000 J/kg range as the
midlevels finally begin to cool in response to the eastward-moving
trough, and a strong low-level jet may help keep the low-level
atmosphere mixed during the late evening and early overnight hours.
This environment should be supportive of strong to severe storms,
but without a good boundary or low-level focus for convection, any
severe weather chances tonight will depend on how well storms can
develop and organize to our west this evening, and how well they
maintain strength as they head eastward into the region. Hi-res
model guidance continues to suggest some sort of bowing, multi-
cellular structure as storms head into far eastern KS and western
MO, but the longevity of these storms is still in question as they
propagate east of the trough and into a somewhat less supportive shear
and instability profile. Current thinking is that one or more bowing
segments could bring severe winds into western portions of the CWA
after 10 PM, but may weaken shortly thereafter. Due to the expected
storm mode and timing of these storms into the area, the primary
severe weather threat will be strong straight-line winds, and any
other severe weather hazards are not as likely without the presence
of robust, long-lived supercell structures.

As storms weaken late tonight into early Sunday morning, storms will
likely slow, and some additional shower/isolated storm development
is possible as the low-level jet continues to pivot eastward. May
need to slightly raise QPF during the 06z-12z timeframe if multiple
rounds of even weak thunderstorms are expected, as current precip
amounts are only reflective of dying, weak convection after 06z. Any
lingering precipitation should clear out during the morning hours on
Sunday, and additional storm development Sunday afternoon should
occur north and east of the region as the upper low soars northward
and low-level drying punches into the forecast area.

Cooler temperatures will fill in Monday and especially Tuesday as
surface high pressure builds into the northern Plains and northerly
flow increases across our forecast area. No additional precipitation
is expected Monday or most of Tuesday as dry air continues to filter
down into the region from the north. However, southerly flow will
begin to return by Tuesday night or Wednesday, bringing warmer
temperatures, increasing moisture, and the return of thunderstorm
chances for the latter half of the work week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 549 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

Convection will be ongoing through the evening and overnight hours.
Initially, development to the southwest of Kansas City will cross
into the area. Heavy thunderstorms with gusty winds are expected with
this first wave of activity, in addition to reduced visibility. A few
storms will continue to develop during the evening hours, though the
main line of convection will occur just after 05Z. Southerly winds will
remain gusty overnight and into Sunday while turning southwesterly
through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
654 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-180000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
654 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
 OVERNIGHT... PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 65. LARGE HAIL AND
 STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT ACHIEVE
 SEVERE LIMITS. ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
 RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
653 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

KSZ025-103>105-MOZ020-028-170045-
ATCHISON KS-BUCHANAN MO-JOHNSON KS-LEAVENWORTH KS-PLATTE MO-WYANDOTTE
KS-
653 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND SOUTHEASTERN ATCHISON...WESTERN WYANDOTTE
AND LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND WESTERN BUCHANAN
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND WESTERN PLATTE COUNTY IN WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 650 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSKALOOSA TO
CENTROPOLIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  TONGANOXIE...DE SOTO...ATCHISON...BASEHOR...LEAVENWORTH...WESTON...
  LANSING...SHAWNEE...BONNER SPRINGS...EDWARDSVILLE...LAKE QUIVIRA...
  PLATTE CITY...EASTON...LINWOOD...RUSHVILLE...TRACY...RENO...
  CUMMINGS...POTTER AND JARBALO.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 410 AND 414.
  I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 1 TO 27.
  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 19 AND 49.
  I-229 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 5.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA UNTIL 11 PM. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3981 9478 3894 9476 3876 9506 3898 9506
      3898 9508 3895 9508 3898 9516 3896 9517
      3896 9519 3941 9519 3942 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 220DEG 41KT 3922 9531 3872 9531

LEIGHTON