River Flood Warning 15, NWS Kansas City, MO

525 
WGUS83 KEAX 170944
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
444 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015
   

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Kansas...Missouri...

  Indian Creek at Overland Park affecting Johnson and Jackson 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

KSC091-MOC095-171014-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150518T0701Z/
/OPDK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
444 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Indian Creek at Overland Park.
* At  4:15 AM Sunday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested near flood stage and will continue
  to fall.
* At 8.0 feet...Low-lying land along the creek begins to flood, 
  including a paved bike and walking path.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Indian Creek
  Overland Park   14   12.6   Sun 04 AM   11.4 early this morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3895 9470 3897 9457 3895 9457 3894 9460 3892 9469

  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1219 AM CDT Sun May 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

Main focus with this forecast issuance will be the potential for
strong to severe storms this afternoon through early Sunday morning.
As the low-level atmosphere destabilized late this morning, a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms developed in an area of broad
lift, moderate instability, and very little deep layer shear. These
storms have begun shifting east, and additional convective initiation
over eastern KS and far western MO has thus far struggled. 18 UTC
sounding out of KTOP indicates very weak midlevel lapse rates, and
thus will likely need some midlevel cooling to support any robust or
long-lasting convection. As a result, any convection this afternoon
through much of the evening should be weak, and any severe weather
threat will hold off until late evening into the early overnight
hours.

Synoptically, a deep upper trough will continue to push eastward
during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the trough, deep
southwest flow is present aloft and moisture continues to surge into
the region at low-levels under south southeast flow. This trough
will provide forcing for widespread convection west of the forecast
area from late afternoon through tonight; however, ongoing showers
through much of central KS has impacted the amount of instability
present to fuel these storms, and could impact their severity and
longevity.

As the upper trough pushes east, deep-layer shear values will begin
to increase in response to the backing of low-level winds and the
increasing wind speeds aloft associated with the upper jet. MUCAPE
values are expected to remain in the 1000-2000 J/kg range as the
midlevels finally begin to cool in response to the eastward-moving
trough, and a strong low-level jet may help keep the low-level
atmosphere mixed during the late evening and early overnight hours.
This environment should be supportive of strong to severe storms,
but without a good boundary or low-level focus for convection, any
severe weather chances tonight will depend on how well storms can
develop and organize to our west this evening, and how well they
maintain strength as they head eastward into the region. Hi-res
model guidance continues to suggest some sort of bowing, multi-
cellular structure as storms head into far eastern KS and western
MO, but the longevity of these storms is still in question as they
propagate east of the trough and into a somewhat less supportive shear
and instability profile. Current thinking is that one or more bowing
segments could bring severe winds into western portions of the CWA
after 10 PM, but may weaken shortly thereafter. Due to the expected
storm mode and timing of these storms into the area, the primary
severe weather threat will be strong straight-line winds, and any
other severe weather hazards are not as likely without the presence
of robust, long-lived supercell structures.

As storms weaken late tonight into early Sunday morning, storms will
likely slow, and some additional shower/isolated storm development
is possible as the low-level jet continues to pivot eastward. May
need to slightly raise QPF during the 06z-12z timeframe if multiple
rounds of even weak thunderstorms are expected, as current precip
amounts are only reflective of dying, weak convection after 06z. Any
lingering precipitation should clear out during the morning hours on
Sunday, and additional storm development Sunday afternoon should
occur north and east of the region as the upper low soars northward
and low-level drying punches into the forecast area.

Cooler temperatures will fill in Monday and especially Tuesday as
surface high pressure builds into the northern Plains and northerly
flow increases across our forecast area. No additional precipitation
is expected Monday or most of Tuesday as dry air continues to filter
down into the region from the north. However, southerly flow will
begin to return by Tuesday night or Wednesday, bringing warmer
temperatures, increasing moisture, and the return of thunderstorm
chances for the latter half of the work week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

Convective line will continue to push through the area overnight. The
main consideration at this point is continued rain showers with
nearby thunderstorms. Visibilities could diminish to MVFR at times,
but will improve as the night progresses. All activity should clear
out of the terminal sites early Sunday morning with improving
conditions through the day. Winds will veer to the southwest with
gusty conditions expected until sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
654 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-180000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
654 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
 OVERNIGHT... PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 65. LARGE HAIL AND
 STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT ACHIEVE
 SEVERE LIMITS. ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
 RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1233 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE LANSING            39.26N 94.88W
05/17/2015                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS 7 MILE CREEK FLOWING OVER HIGHWAY 5, MAKING IT
            IMPASSIBLE. ROAD IS CLOSED. APPROXIMATELY 2 INCHES HAVE
            FALLEN SO FAR.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1236 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE FAIRWAY           39.03N 94.61W
05/17/2015                   JOHNSON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PD REPORTING SEVERAL VEHICLES DISABLED WITHIN THE AREA OF
            55TH ST AND MISSION DR DUE TO WATER THAT IS REPORTEDLY
            WAIST DEEP.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1241 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 S HAMILTON            39.73N 94.00W
05/17/2015  E70 MPH          CALDWELL           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 70 MPH WINDS WITH 6-8 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES
            CRACKING OFF OF TREES

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1246 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1241 AM     TSTM WND DMG     POLO                    39.55N 94.04W
05/17/2015                   CALDWELL           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BARNS HEAVILY DAMAGED JUST WEST OF 220TH AND 13 HWY

&&

JWELSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1254 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E PARKER              38.33N 94.90W
05/16/2015                   LINN               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM RELAYED REPORTS OF MULTIPLE POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN
            NEAR THE JUNCTION OF KS HWY 7 AND KS HWY 152 WEST OF
            LACYGNE. POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO A BARN IN THE AREA ALSO
            REPORTED.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1258 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 AM     TSTM WND GST     JAMESPORT               39.97N 93.80W
05/17/2015  E60 MPH          DAVIESS            MO   PUBLIC

            EM RELAYED PUBLIC REPORT OF ESTIMATED WINDS EXCEEDING 60
            MPH WITH POWER FLICKERING

&&

LG