Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Kansas City, MO

101 
WGUS73 KEAX 171059
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
559 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

KSC209-MOC047-049-095-165-171113-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-150517T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WYANDOTTE KS-CLAY MO-CLINTON MO-JACKSON MO-PLATTE MO-
559 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PLATTE...
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...SOUTHERN CLINTON...CLAY AND NORTHERN WYANDOTTE
COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 600 AM CDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA REMAIN HIGH AND AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING 
HAS BEEN ISSUED IN PLACE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING. IF FLOODING HAS 
BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT 
AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3920 9485 3920 9478 3921 9483 3925 9483
      3926 9484 3953 9478 3953 9461 3958 9460
      3958 9421 3951 9421 3910 9430 3908 9487

$$

GITRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1219 AM CDT Sun May 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

Main focus with this forecast issuance will be the potential for
strong to severe storms this afternoon through early Sunday morning.
As the low-level atmosphere destabilized late this morning, a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms developed in an area of broad
lift, moderate instability, and very little deep layer shear. These
storms have begun shifting east, and additional convective initiation
over eastern KS and far western MO has thus far struggled. 18 UTC
sounding out of KTOP indicates very weak midlevel lapse rates, and
thus will likely need some midlevel cooling to support any robust or
long-lasting convection. As a result, any convection this afternoon
through much of the evening should be weak, and any severe weather
threat will hold off until late evening into the early overnight
hours.

Synoptically, a deep upper trough will continue to push eastward
during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the trough, deep
southwest flow is present aloft and moisture continues to surge into
the region at low-levels under south southeast flow. This trough
will provide forcing for widespread convection west of the forecast
area from late afternoon through tonight; however, ongoing showers
through much of central KS has impacted the amount of instability
present to fuel these storms, and could impact their severity and
longevity.

As the upper trough pushes east, deep-layer shear values will begin
to increase in response to the backing of low-level winds and the
increasing wind speeds aloft associated with the upper jet. MUCAPE
values are expected to remain in the 1000-2000 J/kg range as the
midlevels finally begin to cool in response to the eastward-moving
trough, and a strong low-level jet may help keep the low-level
atmosphere mixed during the late evening and early overnight hours.
This environment should be supportive of strong to severe storms,
but without a good boundary or low-level focus for convection, any
severe weather chances tonight will depend on how well storms can
develop and organize to our west this evening, and how well they
maintain strength as they head eastward into the region. Hi-res
model guidance continues to suggest some sort of bowing, multi-
cellular structure as storms head into far eastern KS and western
MO, but the longevity of these storms is still in question as they
propagate east of the trough and into a somewhat less supportive shear
and instability profile. Current thinking is that one or more bowing
segments could bring severe winds into western portions of the CWA
after 10 PM, but may weaken shortly thereafter. Due to the expected
storm mode and timing of these storms into the area, the primary
severe weather threat will be strong straight-line winds, and any
other severe weather hazards are not as likely without the presence
of robust, long-lived supercell structures.

As storms weaken late tonight into early Sunday morning, storms will
likely slow, and some additional shower/isolated storm development
is possible as the low-level jet continues to pivot eastward. May
need to slightly raise QPF during the 06z-12z timeframe if multiple
rounds of even weak thunderstorms are expected, as current precip
amounts are only reflective of dying, weak convection after 06z. Any
lingering precipitation should clear out during the morning hours on
Sunday, and additional storm development Sunday afternoon should
occur north and east of the region as the upper low soars northward
and low-level drying punches into the forecast area.

Cooler temperatures will fill in Monday and especially Tuesday as
surface high pressure builds into the northern Plains and northerly
flow increases across our forecast area. No additional precipitation
is expected Monday or most of Tuesday as dry air continues to filter
down into the region from the north. However, southerly flow will
begin to return by Tuesday night or Wednesday, bringing warmer
temperatures, increasing moisture, and the return of thunderstorm
chances for the latter half of the work week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

Convective line will continue to push through the area overnight. The
main consideration at this point is continued rain showers with
nearby thunderstorms. Visibilities could diminish to MVFR at times,
but will improve as the night progresses. All activity should clear
out of the terminal sites early Sunday morning with improving
conditions through the day. Winds will veer to the southwest with
gusty conditions expected until sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
654 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-180000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
654 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
 OVERNIGHT... PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 65. LARGE HAIL AND
 STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT ACHIEVE
 SEVERE LIMITS. ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
 RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
143 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W GALLATIN            39.92N 94.02W
05/17/2015                   DAVIESS            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 6 NEAR HIGHWAY CC, MAKING IT
            IMPASSIBLE

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
145 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 W SEDALIA             38.70N 93.34W
05/17/2015  E60 MPH          PETTIS             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EM RELAYED REPORT OF 50 TO 60 MPH GUST ON HIGHWAY 50 WITH
            SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
153 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     TORNADO          S POLO                  39.55N 94.04W
05/16/2015                   CALDWELL           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF 15 TO 20 INCH DIAMETER TREES BROKEN OFF AT THE
            BASE IN THE HIDEAWAY LAKES SUB-DIVISION, LOCATED ON THE
            EAST SIDE OF HIGHWAY 13. NO TORNADO CONFIRMED, JUST
            POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
233 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S CAMERON             39.69N 94.24W
05/17/2015                   CLINTON            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER FLOWING OVER HIGHWAY 69 NEAR ELKS
            LODGE DUE TO AN OVERFLOWING CREEK, CLOSING THE ROAD.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
238 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 WNW CLAYCOMO          39.22N 94.58W
05/17/2015  E4.00 INCH       CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA FB OF APPROXIMATELY 4 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR NE
            72ND ST AND N OAK TRAFFICWAY

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
301 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE KEARNEY            39.39N 94.33W
05/17/2015                   CLAY               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER RESCUE AT NE 172ND ST. AND BISHOP RD. 2 MILES NE OF
            KEARNEY

&&

JWELSH