Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Kansas City, MO

July 28, 2015Mercer County, Putnam County, Sullivan County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 28, 2015, 11:52 PM CDT for Mercer County, Putnam County, Sullivan County, Missouri. It was in force for 53 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 28, 2015, 11:52 PM CDT (04:52 UTC)
Expired: Jul 29, 2015, 12:45 AM CDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Mercer County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Sullivan County, MO

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 158 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 28, 5:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 258 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1806 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -40 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1061 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 115 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 180 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.6
Supercell composite: 6.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

424 
WUUS53 KEAX 290452
SVREAX
MOC129-171-211-290545-
/O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0227.150729T0452Z-150729T0545Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  PUTNAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

* AT 1151 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF MERCER...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILAN...MOVING EAST
  AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  UNIONVILLE...GREEN CITY...GREENCASTLE...NEWTOWN...POLLOCK...
  LUCERNE...HARRIS...POWERSVILLE...LEMONS AND GREEN CASTLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9286 4027 9346 4058 9347 4059 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0451Z 267DEG 24KT 4040 9337 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CDB

4 follow-up statements

233 
WWUS53 KEAX 290503
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1203 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MOC129-290512-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-150729T0545Z/
MERCER MO-
1203 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN MERCER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4025 9286 4026 9317 4026 9333 4027 9336
      4058 9337 4059 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0502Z 267DEG 24KT 4040 9327 

$$

MOC171-211-290545-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-150729T0545Z/
SULLIVAN MO-PUTNAM MO-
1203 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN SULLIVAN AND PUTNAM COUNTIES...

AT 1202 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF
UNIONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UNIONVILLE...GREEN CITY...GREENCASTLE...NEWTOWN...POLLOCK...
LUCERNE...HARRIS...POWERSVILLE...LEMONS AND GREEN CASTLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9286 4026 9317 4026 9333 4027 9336
      4058 9337 4059 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0502Z 267DEG 24KT 4040 9327 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CDB

230 
WWUS53 KEAX 290514
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1214 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MOC171-211-290545-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-150729T0545Z/
SULLIVAN MO-PUTNAM MO-
1214 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN SULLIVAN AND PUTNAM COUNTIES...

AT 1213 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF UNIONVILLE...AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UNIONVILLE...GREEN CITY...GREENCASTLE...NEWTOWN...POLLOCK...
LUCERNE...HARRIS...POWERSVILLE...LEMONS AND GREEN CASTLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9286 4026 9317 4026 9333 4027 9336
      4058 9337 4059 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 267DEG 24KT 4041 9313 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CDB

799 
WWUS53 KEAX 290525
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1225 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MOC171-211-290545-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-150729T0545Z/
SULLIVAN MO-PUTNAM MO-
1225 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN SULLIVAN AND CENTRAL PUTNAM COUNTIES...

AT 1225 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER UNIONVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UNIONVILLE...GREEN CITY...GREENCASTLE...POLLOCK...LEMONS AND GREEN
CASTLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9286 4026 9317 4058 9318 4059 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 266DEG 29KT 4044 9303 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CDB

984 
WWUS53 KEAX 290538
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1238 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MOC171-211-290548-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-150729T0545Z/
SULLIVAN MO-PUTNAM MO-
1238 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SULLIVAN AND
CENTRAL PUTNAM COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1245 AM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY 
WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4025 9286 4026 9317 4058 9318 4059 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0536Z 267DEG 24KT 4044 9303 

$$

CDB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 28, 11:30 PM CDT, 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 28, 11:30 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A frontal boundary extending from central Minnesota southwest into
central Kansas is poised to move into forecast area tonight. In
advance of this boundary another hot day was noted across the area
with air temperatures well into the 90s and heat index values in
excess of 105 at most locations.

An strong upper level low over the northern Plains should translate east
northeast into southern Canada tonight and tomorrow pushing a cold
front through the forecast area. On-going convection in Iowa
together with new development along the boundary should sag into
northern Missouri later this evening. Given high precipitable water
values (at or above 2 inches) and the antecedent soil conditions over
north central and northeast Missouri feel flash flood watch is
warranted. Models do seem fairly progressive with the boundary once
it begins to move south so greatest threat for heavy rain should be
confined to the late evening/overnight hours. Some severe storms are
also possible over northern Missouri as boundary provides focusing
mechanism for decent instability already in place. Further south and
west the threat for organized convection looks lower as better upper
dynamics pull into the Great Lakes region.

Frontal boundary should push through the area by tomorrow morning
providing for drier conditions and cooler temperatures. Afternoon
temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today
as surface high pressure settles into the region.

For the remainder of the week, the combination of building upper
level northwest flow and surface high pressure should provide for
seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the extended periods...Saturday through Tuesday... the region
will lie under deep layer northwest flow as the ridge continues its
hold over the western CONUS. As a result temperatures through the
period will be close to normal. At this time precip chances exist
nearly each day but POPs appear low as only low amplitude waves are
expected to move by in the northwest flow.

END

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Convection across northern Missouri is not making southern progress
as quickly as anticipated, so have bumped back the timing of arrival
into the terminals. That being said, the chances for the KC terminals
to see thunderstorm activity is are a bit lower than considered
earlier. Same goes for KSTJ, where storms are a bit more likely to
affect the terminals. Due to low confidence of T-storm development at
the terminals, went with VCTS and TEMPO to cover that concern. By or
shortly after sunrise expect T-storms to end with mid level clouds
remaining through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ003>008-
     015>017.

&&

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Leighton

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 28, 5:20 AM CDT, 18 hours 32 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
520 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291030-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
520 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 HAZARDOUS HEAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110.

 A FEW STORMS TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY
 HEAVY RAINFALL.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 28, 10:15 PM CDT, 1 hour 37 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1015 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MOZ007-008-290400-
PUTNAM MO-SCHUYLER MO-
1015 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCHUYLER AND EASTERN PUTNAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1015 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES EAST OF LAKE
SUNDOWN TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CENTERVILLE TO 11 MILES NORTH OF
UNIONVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UNIONVILLE...LANCASTER...QUEEN CITY...GREENTOP...DOWNING...
GLENWOOD...WORTHINGTON AND LIVONIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 9235 4034 9285 4038 9286 4039 9291
      4058 9314 4060 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 311DEG 27KT 4080 9258 4066 9274 4064 9305

CDB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 28, 9:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Mercer, Putnam	36 min
Jul 28, 10:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Putnam, Schuyler	45 min
Jul 28, 11:11 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Nodaway, Worth	6 hr
Jul 29, 12:38 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Schuyler	52 min
Jul 29, 1:21 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Daviess, Grundy, Linn, Livingston, Mercer, Putnam and 1 more	6 hr
Jul 29, 1:28 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Andrew, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Harrison	6 hr
Jul 29, 1:40 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Andrew, Holt, Nodaway	50 hr
Jul 29, 2:36 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Andrew, Nodaway	57 hr
Jul 29, 2:36 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Buchanan	4 days
Jul 29, 2:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Daviess, Gentry	57 hr
Jul 29, 2:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Linn, Livingston	4 days
Jul 29, 2:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Chariton, Linn, Livingston	6 days
Jul 29, 2:55 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt	49 hr
Jul 29, 3:09 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Caldwell, Daviess, Linn, Livingston	6 hr
Jul 29, 5:25 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Daviess, Livingston	3 days
Jul 29, 5:25 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Chariton	6 days
Jul 29, 5:25 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Grundy, Livingston	44 hr
Jul 29, 5:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Adair, Macon, Putnam, Schuyler	37 hr
Jul 29, 5:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Chariton, Macon	3 days
Jul 29, 10:48 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan	62 hr
Jul 29, 10:56 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Platte	6 days
Jul 29, 10:56 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Platte	7 days

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.