River Flood Warning 274, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A frontal boundary extending from central Minnesota southwest into
central Kansas is poised to move into forecast area tonight. In
advance of this boundary another hot day was noted across the area
with air temperatures well into the 90s and heat index values in
excess of 105 at most locations.

An strong upper level low over the northern Plains should translate east
northeast into southern Canada tonight and tomorrow pushing a cold
front through the forecast area. On-going convection in Iowa
together with new development along the boundary should sag into
northern Missouri later this evening. Given high precipitable water
values (at or above 2 inches) and the antecedent soil conditions over
north central and northeast Missouri feel flash flood watch is
warranted. Models do seem fairly progressive with the boundary once
it begins to move south so greatest threat for heavy rain should be
confined to the late evening/overnight hours. Some severe storms are
also possible over northern Missouri as boundary provides focusing
mechanism for decent instability already in place. Further south and
west the threat for organized convection looks lower as better upper
dynamics pull into the Great Lakes region.

Frontal boundary should push through the area by tomorrow morning
providing for drier conditions and cooler temperatures. Afternoon
temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today
as surface high pressure settles into the region.

For the remainder of the week, the combination of building upper
level northwest flow and surface high pressure should provide for
seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the extended periods...Saturday through Tuesday... the region
will lie under deep layer northwest flow as the ridge continues its
hold over the western CONUS. As a result temperatures through the
period will be close to normal. At this time precip chances exist
nearly each day but POPs appear low as only low amplitude waves are
expected to move by in the northwest flow.

END

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Convection across northern Missouri is not making southern progress
as quickly as anticipated, so have bumped back the timing of arrival
into the terminals. That being said, the chances for the KC terminals
to see thunderstorm activity is are a bit lower than considered
earlier. Same goes for KSTJ, where storms are a bit more likely to
affect the terminals. Due to low confidence of T-storm development at
the terminals, went with VCTS and TEMPO to cover that concern. By or
shortly after sunrise expect T-storms to end with mid level clouds
remaining through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ003>008-
     015>017.

&&

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Leighton

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
520 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291030-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
520 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 HAZARDOUS HEAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110.

 A FEW STORMS TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY
 HEAVY RAINFALL.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1015 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MOZ007-008-290400-
PUTNAM MO-SCHUYLER MO-
1015 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCHUYLER AND EASTERN PUTNAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1015 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES EAST OF LAKE
SUNDOWN TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CENTERVILLE TO 11 MILES NORTH OF
UNIONVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UNIONVILLE...LANCASTER...QUEEN CITY...GREENTOP...DOWNING...
GLENWOOD...WORTHINGTON AND LIVONIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 9235 4034 9285 4038 9286 4039 9291
      4058 9314 4060 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 311DEG 27KT 4080 9258 4066 9274 4064 9305

CDB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1238 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MOZ007-008-016-290630-
PUTNAM MO-SULLIVAN MO-SCHUYLER MO-
1238 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SULLIVAN...SCHUYLER
AND EASTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 1237 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES EAST OF UNIONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UNIONVILLE...LANCASTER...QUEEN CITY...GREENTOP...DOWNING...
GLENWOOD...WORTHINGTON AND LIVONIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 9235 4034 9298 4055 9300 4059 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 266DEG 32KT 4044 9287

CDB