Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Kansas City, MO

July 6, 2015Jackson County, Lafayette County, Ray County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 6, 2015, 5:45 PM CDT for Jackson County, Lafayette County, Ray County, Missouri. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 6, 2015, 5:45 PM CDT (22:45 UTC)
Expired: Jul 6, 2015, 6:15 PM CDT
In force: 30 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Jackson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Ray County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 6, 3:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 625 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -194 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1151 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 94 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 131 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

859 
WUUS53 KEAX 062245
SVREAX
MOC095-107-177-062315-
/O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0186.150706T2245Z-150706T2315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
545 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN RAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  WESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 545 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ORRICK...
  MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  INDEPENDENCE...BLUE SPRINGS...GRAIN VALLEY...EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...
  RICHMOND...ODESSA...LEXINGTON...BUCKNER...ORRICK...WELLINGTON...
  HARDIN...HENRIETTA...SIBLEY...MAYVIEW...LEVASY AND WOODS HEIGHTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 9432 3924 9426 3923 9425 3921 9422
      3921 9421 3934 9421 3940 9376 3898 9376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 269DEG 36KT 3923 9414 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BLAIR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 6, 1:34 PM CDT, 4 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 1:34 PM CDT, 4 hours 11 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
134 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)

An episode of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected this
afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas and much of western
Missouri. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and torrential rainfall
are all possible with these storms. Rainfall rates combined with
moist soil conditions will lead to a flash flood risk in any areas
that experiences heavy rain.

A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for areas along and south of a
line from St. Joseph to Kirksville.

Short term models suggest that the severe risk could move into
southwest and central Missouri by 11pm tonight, with residual showers
lingering over northern Missouri into Tuesday morning.

For the rest of Tuesday, it's difficult to determine where the effective
surface front will be located due to convective outflow, cloud cover,
and rain contamination. Therefore will will continue the higher POPS
over west central and central Missouri through Tuesday afternoon, with
much lower POPS over northern Missouri. This forecast is based on a
frontal position across the Ozarks.

Highs on Tuesday may only reach the middle 70s as a cooler northern
Plains airmass spreads into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)

Regarding Tuesday night, it appears as though the bulk of the heavy
rain and flooding will occur over Oklahoma as a shortwave trough
moves in from the southwest. This rainfall will eventually spread
into central and southern Missouri Wednesday morning.

Therefore Tuesday night through Wednesday, we will focus the higher
rainfall probabilities across west central and central Missouri.

Models suggest the surface front will remain over southern Missouri
through Wednesday night, focusing the bulk of the precipitation south
of I-70. However, by Thursday and Thursday night, this front is
expected to track back to the north, bringing additional rainfall to
northern Missouri.

As we progress toward the weekend, the summertime high is expected to
build across the nation's mid section, bringing hot and dry weather
to northern and western Missouri. Look for temperatures to warm into
the 80s and possibly the lower 90s by Friday and Saturday afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)

Little change to ongoing forecast. VFR conditions continue early this
afternoon with gusty southerly winds. Cold front projected to arrive
at terminals between 21-00z. Increasing chances for thunderstorms
expected with cold front approach and behind frontal boundary.
Widespread rain should gradually clear terminals overnight tonight
with only a few scattered showers expected Tuesday AM. MVFR
precipitation and post-frontal conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     evening FOR MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM...CRAMER
AVIATION...Blair

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 6, 5:21 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
521 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-072230-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
521 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
 MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
 STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH BEING
 THE MAIN POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD. A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES
 MAY ALSO OCCUR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

 IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...TORRENTIAL
 RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
 FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS GENERALLY
 ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ATCHISON KANSAS TO SAINT JOSEPH TO
 KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
 CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
 WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE
 FROM ATCHISON KANSAS TO SAINT JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SCHAUMANN

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 6, 5:27 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
527 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TORNADO          1 N CLEARVIEW CITY      38.96N 95.00W
07/06/2015                   JOHNSON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SPOTTER OBSERVED WEST OF DE SOTO ON K10.

&&

SMB

Local storm report, Jul 6, 5:30 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
530 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N OAKVIEW             39.26N 94.58W
07/06/2015                   CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            TREE DAMAGE REPORTED AT 94TH AND OAK.

&&

SMB

Local storm report, Jul 6, 5:34 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
534 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E PLATTSBURG          39.56N 94.45W
07/06/2015                   CLINTON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTS HWY 116 IS
            CLOSED BY FIRE DEPT. APPROXIMATELY 1/8 MILE
            WEST OF ROUTE Y WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER
            FLOWING OVER ROAD.

&&

SMB

Local storm report, Jul 6, 5:39 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
539 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 NW OLATHE             38.93N 94.85W
07/06/2015                   JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WELL DEFINED ROTATION WITH SMALL DEBRIS
            OBSERVED AT INTERSECTION OF HWY 7 AND
            COLLEGE BLVD.

&&

SMB

Local storm report, Jul 6, 5:42 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
542 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW GLENAIRE          39.24N 94.46W
07/06/2015                   CLAY               MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTS OF DAMAGE AND WINDOWS BLOWN OUT AT
            WAL-MART AND ADJACENT GAS STATION.

&&

SMB

Local storm report, Jul 6, 5:45 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
545 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     FLOOD            2 E TONGANOXIE          39.12N 95.04W
07/06/2015                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            8 INCHES OF WATER OVER US24/40 4 MILES WEST
            OF BASEHOR

&&

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
IRIS SYSTEM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 6, 3:44 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	EAX	Adair, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Cass and 21 more	60 hr
Jul 6, 9:40 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cass, Henry, Johnson	71 hr
Jul 6, 9:40 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass, Henry	3 days
Jul 6, 10:21 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Lafayette, Platte, Ray	70 hr
Jul 6, 10:21 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Lafayette, Saline	4 days
Jul 6, 10:21 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Chariton, Saline	5 days
Jul 6, 1:53 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Gentry, Worth	3 hr
Jul 6, 2:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Harrison	34 min
Jul 6, 2:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Andrew	31 min
Jul 6, 2:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, Clinton, DeKalb	50 min
Jul 6, 3:19 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan	2 hr
Jul 6, 3:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan, Platte	38 min
Jul 6, 4:02 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Platte	13 min
Jul 6, 4:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Platte	57 min
Jul 6, 4:29 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Buchanan, Clay, Clinton, Platte	4 hr
Jul 6, 4:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Platte	39 min
Jul 6, 4:55 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Clay	20 min
Jul 6, 4:58 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Platte	4 hr
Jul 6, 5:09 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	EAX	Clay, Jackson	21 min
Jul 6, 5:27 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Ray	18 min
Jul 6, 5:36 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Jackson	24 min
Jul 6, 5:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Jackson	46 min
Jul 6, 6:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Carroll, Lafayette, Ray	45 min
Jul 6, 6:51 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Caldwell, Cass, Jackson, Lafayette, Ray	4 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.